Apr 21, 2020

State of the Corona World – Rating of the Countries According to Managing the Coronavirus Epidemics


The numbers of diseased and deceased with corona to a certain date can be found in the WHO website, and the numbers of performed tests in the WORLDOMETER site. In the following table, I have extracted the data for April 14 and adjusted them to reflect the population size for the majority of East Asian, West European, and North American countries. The table comprises the numbers of reported positive cases, death, and performed tests, as well as these values recalculated per 10 million people, which is an approximate population of Sweden, Portugal, Czechia, Hungary, Greece, Austria, Israel, Switzerland, and Hong Kong.

The following parameters reflect how seriously the countries have been afflicted and/or how badly they have been unprepared: a) number of positively diagnosed per 10 million people, b) number of deaths per 10 million people, c) number of dead per 100 positive cases, and d) reciprocally or negatively taken number of tests per 10 million people. I have arranged the countries according to the increasing number of diagnosed ill people per 10 million and determined a placing of each country in the list (= parameter a) – Taiwan acquires the placing 1 as having the least relative number of ill. Then I have arranged the countries according to the increasing number of deaths per 10 million and found their placings (= parameter b) – again Taiwan with the least number acquired the 1st place. Similarly, I have arranged the countries according to the increasing ratio of dead/ill (parameter c); Slovakia gets the number 1. Finally, I have arranged the countries according to the decreasing number of tests performed per 10 million people (parameter d) – Iceland is the first one. A combination of parameters provides a better rating; the mean value of a and b has been calculated and the countries have been rearranged to provide a placing for each country for the combined ill and dead people (parameter e). By combining the ill, the dead and the tested (providing parameter f by calculating the mean value of a, b, and c for each country, and by rearranging the countries), still a more universal measure has been obtained – Hong Kong taking the 1st place.  
                    1 The total number of reported positive cases (ill) on April 14.
                    2 The total number of reported dead with corona on April 14.
                    3 The total number of reported positive cases on April 14 recalculated per 10 million people.
                    4 The total number of reported dead with corona on April 14 recalculated per 10 million people.
                    5 The ratio of dead/ill multiplied by 100, approximately being a fraction of the dead among the infected.
                    6 The total number of reported tests, recalculated for 10 million people, reported in HK, TW, KR, SG, JP, AU, NZ, IL, IS, NO, FI, DK, SE, US, CH, 
                    GB, GR, CZ, HU, DE, ES‚ IT, FR for April 15, and in other countries for April 17.
                    7 The ratio of ill/tests multiplied by 100, corresponding to the maximal estimation of the infected population fraction.
                    8 The arithmetic mean of a and b, providing a combination of the ill and dead, when arranging the countries and finding their placing e.
                    9 The arithmetic mean of a, b, and c, providing a combination of the ill, dead and tested, when arranging the countries and finding their placing f (the 
                    number of tested may be somewhat lower than the number of the tests as some people were tested repeatedly).

The developing or totalitarian countries do not measure or do not provide real data. A sample of such countries is exemplified in the following table.


It can be supposed that the rating will not much change in the near future even when comprising updated data. 

For some reasons, the countries of Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe have less infected and dead than their Western counterparts.

No comments:

Post a Comment