tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56326601800616833702024-02-19T17:22:54.208+02:00Hegaion EUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-59628494822456504812023-08-09T00:23:00.004+03:002023-08-09T00:49:38.474+03:00Communist China Endangers the Sovereignty and Security of the State of Israel<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The last hundred years have been the most brutal in human history, and Communist China has contributed to this significantly.
In the <span lang="EN-US">infamous </span>campaigns of the <span lang="EN-US">Chinese </span>Communist Party (CCP), such as the "Great
Leap Forward" or the "Cultural Revolution", approximately 100 million
people perished. Starvation, rape, torture<span lang="EN-US">,</span> and amputation were <span lang="EN-US">the means</span> of the
CCP's re-education programs<span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL" lang="HE"><span dir="RTL"></span><span dir="RTL"></span>.</span></div><span dir="RTL" lang="HE"><span><a name='more'></a></span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">In the last thirty years, the Communist Party has taken advantage
of the benefits of a free market, but without giving up on political <span lang="EN-US">violence</span>. For example, in June 1989, the Communist soldiers supported by tanks murdered more than 10,000 students on the Tiananmen Square in Beijing. I<span lang="EN-US">n </span>July 1999,
the Communist Party began a campaign of terror against the Buddhist
organization Falun Gong. Many of the 70 million supporters of the organization
were arrested<span lang="EN-US">,</span> and some were
killed and dismembered for transplants; <span lang="EN-US">t</span>he number of dead is estimated at one million people.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">CCP</span>'s evil
campaign<span lang="EN-US">s</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">are</span> not over. The Chinese communists threaten all their neighbors, <span lang="EN-US">and they have even acquired dangerous influence in
Israel, bordering on seizing control of the state’s economy and partly its
security</span>. They have already received factories and ports in Israel to
manage, and are managing the most important strategic projects.<span lang="EN-US"> CCP</span> have established education centers <span lang="EN-US">based on their ideology around the world, and in
Israel as well. They have been caught when they planted bugging devices in Israeli government offices. They have threatened the Israeli journalists who had inter</span>viewed <span lang="EN-US">Taiwanese </span>politicians.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">On 17 July 2022, a
professor from the University UIBE ISRAEL spoke on Israeli News 13 TV about mega
plans for Chinese constructors in Israel, including handing over the main
Israeli airport, Ben Gurion, for constructing apartments on its land, while
building a new airport elsewhere. The naive journalists on TV were enthusiastic about
the idea and even forgot to explain that UIBE ISRAEL is a university of the Chinese Communist
Party in Petah Tikva which advertises Chinese projects in Israel.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The Communist China
signed a $400 billion deal with Iran in March 2021, including Chinese
investments in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways, health care and
information technology, also involving military and intelligence cooperation. Top
Israeli and US security officials warned against China’s influence in the State
of Israel.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">CCP easily managed to neutralize
the freedom of 70 million people in their country, so one can suppose that neutralizing
the freedom of 9 million Israelis is not impossible for them. They have already
started working on it in a low profile. They have already penetrated our house
throughout, like termites, quietly building their influence everywhere in Israel. We need
to wake up before our house falls down.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-25550066456457721552022-12-16T03:23:00.002+02:002023-01-05T18:29:18.954+02:00World Cup in a Graveyard – Qatar Has Killed 6,500 Construction Workers When Preparing the Soccer Championship and Now It Manipulates the Western Media<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Unsurprisingly,
the totalitarian Arab kingdom does not suffer from any excessive red tape
regarding work safety, and foreign workers have died in droves when building
stadiums and infrastructure not only from accidents, but also from overworking at
temperatures of up to 120</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Symbol;">°</span><span lang="EN-US">F. Qatar has 300,000 citizens and about ten foreign
workers for everyone, the workers without any rights are mostly from Far East.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The gross domestic
product per capita of Qatar is the highest in the world. The Qatar ruler, known
as the Emir, invests the surpluses in his hobbies, which include maintaining
the Al Jazeera television station, supporting his favorite organizations such
as the Taliban and Hamas, as well as organizing international sporting events.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">After the
king had "negotiated" with the football federation FIFA to host the
championship, he spent hundreds of billions for the construction of eight stadiums
connected by metro. Hotel rooms in the capital Doha, about 30,000, could not
accommodate the 800,000 fans from abroad, so improvised accommodation
facilities were created further away.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The accommodation facilities look like military camps made up of rows of miniature cubicles. Each cube looks
like a shipping container, having a shower, two small beds and a table that can
fit one bowl, the inefficient air conditioner merely making noise. Fans paid
$200 a night and, despite modest expectations, they were completely
shocked by the unpreparedness and wretchedness of the accommodations (</span><a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-11464315/Furious-fans-slam-Qatar-organisers-unfinished-2022-FIFA-World-Cup-fan-village-cabins-near-Doha.html"><span lang="CS">here</span></a><span lang="CS">)</span><span lang="EN-US">. However, at the beginning of the championship, all the negative news
disappeared from all the media as if by magic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">No one
cares where hundreds of thousands of fans go after the matches. Strangely,
none of the hundreds of reporters thought of going outside the center of that –
Potemkin – city after the matches. It turns out that whoever wanted to broadcast
from Qatar had to promise not to show anything outside agreed locations (</span><a href="https://worldsoccertalk.com/news/qatar-censor-world-cup-broadcasters-from-filming-living-conditions-20221015-WST-404598.html"><span lang="CS">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). To associate sudden deaths of
journalists during the championship with exceeding the permitted limits would
be hypothesizing, and besides nobody cares (<a href="https://www.marca.com/en/world-cup/2022/12/12/6397ad47ca47414c7b8b45f1.html">here</a>).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">If we talk
about journalists, Shireen Abu Akleh who worked for Qatar's Al Jazeera
television comes to mind. Everyone in the world is interested in her death. In
May of this year, she decided to report on a shootout between terrorists and
Israeli soldiers. As she placed</span><span lang="CS"> herself between the two shooting parties, even the PRESS sign did not help
her, and she was shot in the head before she could produce the planned
anti-Israel report.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Although Al
Jazeera is an anti-Israel TV station in a state allied with Iran, Israeli
democracy always allowed Akleh to enter the country, and even did not prevent her from
her anti-Israel reporting, but in the combat action with murderous forces,
Israeli soldiers could not monitor her every move and protect her. The Israeli
army has carefully investigated her death and what was missing was only the
bullet – but the Arab terrorists refused to release it. Even if it was an Israeli
bullet, it was not an intentional shot.</div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="CS">In the last year
alone, dozens of journalists have been murdered in Muslim countries (not to
mention Russia and communist countries), but the main concern of the UN and
most of the world's media is to punish Israel for the death of Akleh. The
championship in Qatar highlights the hypocrisy of the world. Qatar, which pays </span><span lang="EN-US">Palestinian terrorists, instructed
Hamas not to attack Israel during the championship, so as not to spoil the
sporting atmosphere (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/qatar-reportedly-pressures-hamas-to-keep-gaza-quiet-during-world-cup/">here</a>).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The desired nice
atmosphere of the championship must not be spoiled either by the facts about
the bribery of FIFA, or by the mass death of foreign workers during the
preparation of the championship, but not even by the facts about the wretched
accommodation of hundreds of thousands of fans who were cheated while
journalists from their countries promised to ignore it. Nobody will any more care
for the Iranian football players who did not sing their national anthem in
protest to their government.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Qatar maintains
friendly ties with Iran, and it has been supporting extremist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban, and Hamas. Long forgotten is the fact that ten
Moslem countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, launched in 2017 a diplomatic
and economic boycott of Qatar due to its terrorist connections. Neither the
terrorist connections nor human rights violations have prevented the French
president Macron from arriving in Qatar for the final matches on December 14.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It is not
only about providing games for the people in Europe but also bread, because
Qatar is an important producer of gas. And so, for entertaining sport broadcasts and
for liquefied gas, the European media and politicians have so far been silent
or have sung about the World Cup as the Qatari emir has wished. Unfortunately
for Qatar, the Qatargate affair has erupted – just during the championship.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Qatargate is a fresh scandal in which European politicians
and their families are accused of corruption, </span>money laundering and organized
crime for the sake of Qatar, whose <span lang="EN-US">representatives
paid large sums to Members of the European Parliament (MEP) to influence
European decision-making</span>. Eva Kaili, European Parliament Vice
President, arrested on December 9, defended Qatar’s human rights
record last month in the parliament, funnily hailing the country as “a
frontrunner in labor rights”.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Also detained
has been the former MEP Antonio Panzeri, founder and president of a
Brussels-based NGO, which funnily “fights against impunity for serious
violations of human rights</span>”. Several former leading EU officials,
including Federica Mogherini, known as a friend of the terrorist Yasser Arafat,
have hastily quit as board members of the Panzeri’s NGO. Also accused is
Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, funnily secretary-general of a human rights campaign
group (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-parliament-lawmaker-denies-taking-bribes-qatar-lawyer-2022-12-13/">here</a>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The confused and corrupt Europe is not able and willing to challenge the Arab barbarism – either
outside or inside its borders.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-8030800094897258472022-09-05T01:46:00.004+03:002022-09-05T01:46:39.867+03:00Nothing of the old glory has remained in Egypt – contemporary Egypt claims the monuments of the previous culture, but it only destroys them<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">To this
day, the Egyptian pyramids are among the most striking and admired structures
created by humans. Ancient Egypt had an immense influence on the development of
European science and culture. The ancient Greeks, including for example
Pythagoras, drew on Egyptian knowledge. The hieroglyphs are still visible in
our script: for example, an Egyptian sign that looked like water ripples, meaning
either "water" or the letter "n", passed through the Proto-Sinai and Greek scripts into both</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="text-align: justify;">Hebrew and today's Latin, where we can
still see the ripples in the letters "m" and "n". Knowledge
of the ancient traditions was maintained at least until the period of Greek
rule, as evidenced by the Rosetta Tablet with a Greek translation of the
hieroglyphic text dating from 196 BC, which at the beginning of the 19th
century enabled the decipherment of Egyptian hieroglyphs and thus the
acquisition of most of our knowledge of ancient Egypt.</div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Other
important cultures developed in contact with ancient Egypt, including
Babylonian and later Greek and Jewish, of which there has always been
awareness, but a surprise for modern science was the retroactive discovery of
the Hittite empire, of which language was deciphered by the Czech linguist Bedřich
Hrozný in 1915. However, the ancient Egyptian culture, with its 3800-year long
duration, from 3150 BC until the Arab conquest in 641 AD, was the most stable
and monumental one. According to medieval traditions, Caliph Omar burned the
famous Alexandrian library in 642 saying: "Either those books are in
accordance with the Koran and then are superfluous, or they contradict it and
then they are harmful".</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Modern
Egyptian governments claim the ancient glory, but the true descendants of the
ancient Egyptians are not the Egyptian Muslims of today, but the Christian
Copts. Muslims are the descendants of the conquerors who came after the death
of Muhammad and of the later converts to Islam. Copts represent roughly 10% of
Egypt's 100 million citizens. They are the descendants of the ancient Egyptians
who have not succumb to inhuman pressure even after 1400 years of Muslim rule.
The Coptic Church is probably the oldest Christian denomination in the world,
but their Christian brothers around the world are afraid to even mention them,
lest they anger the Muslims. This fear is already apparent from the English
Wikipedia, which states the number of Copts in Egypt as follows: "Copts in
Egypt account for roughly 5-20 percent of the Egyptian population, although the
exact percentage is unknown".</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The Muslim
government does not want to count the Copts because it does not want to
recognize their existence at all. Copts have been second-class citizens
throughout their history and, apart from a brief more liberal period in the
19th century, have had to suffer like animals. Pogroms and persecution,
including the abduction and rape of girls and women, are still the order of the
day. Although Pope Francis condemned the killing of Egyptian Copts by ISIS
extremists in 2017, he never spoke out against Egyptian Muslims or the
government, and I don't recall any other pope protesting the oppression of
Copts in modern times, even though Western humanists and human rights advocates
did not protest either.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">However,
the above does not mean that Muslims have an easy life in Egypt. More than 80%
of women are subjected to so-called female circumcision, which is an
excruciatingly painful cutting off parts of the female genital organs, mostly
between the ages of 0 and 15, sometimes even without anesthetics, which usually
leads to irreversible physical and mental mutilation of a person. Ordinary
citizens have no rights, and politicians, including presidents, usually end up
imprisoned or murdered.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Modern
governments have succeeded in flooding many ancient Egyptian monuments with the
construction of the Aswan Dam, and some monuments have been destroyed in other
ways, such as in the event poetically called the "Arab Spring",
during which Muslim protesters in righteous anger looted museums in 2011. Many
women did not escape the anger and were group-raped during the demonstrations.
Without any illusions, the Egyptian writer Farag Foda wrote about the Islamic
history of Egypt: “There was no golden age. More of our people have been killed
by our own people than by our enemies", and to confirm his words, he
himself was killed in front of his children in 1992.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">In its
peace efforts, Israel has focused on Egypt, as the most populous Arab country.
After defeating Egypt in the wars of 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973, Israel offered
Egypt the Sinai and a peace agreement, with the understanding that Egypt would
celebrate the Yom Kippur War as its great victory. Although the Arab honor
(also called male honor or family honor) of Egypt was saved, the Egyptian
governments continued to incite hatred even after the signing of the peace
agreement; unable to overcome the anti-Semitism of their Hitler-admiring
leaders, from Nasser to Mubarak, they chose the German eagle as their national
emblem after World War II.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Egypt never
fulfilled the 1978 peace accords. TV series in the anti-Semitic style of Julius
Streicher continued to run on Egyptian television. Egypt did not allow the
development of relations, refused to sell gas from Sinai to Israel, and even
organized an attack against the Israeli embassy in Cairo in 2011, when the
employees only miraculously managed to escape lynching at the last moment.
Under the pretext that there are terrorists in Sinai, Egypt forced Israel to
allow tanks to be placed there, despite the most important point of the peace
agreement, which was the complete demilitarization of Sinai. When Israeli
tourists were killed and wounded in Sinai this June, Egypt did not allow
Israeli helicopters to land there and evacuate them.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Occasionally,
Egyptian tanks from Sinai "accidentally" fire on Israeli towns near
the border, but Israel, led by its doves, ignores this, as well as the
smuggling of weapons, drugs, and illegals into Israel from Sinai, which is
tolerated or even organized by the Egyptian military. In 2016, Egyptian
soldiers shot and killed a 15-year-old Israeli boy. I know the details of the
boy's killing because my daughter worked as a journalist for the daily Israel
Hayom and as part of her work visited the murdered man's family several times.
They are Bedouins who live in the Negev, a few kilometers from me, in a village
called Lakiya. The boy's father worked as a laborer building a fence between
the Negev and Sinai and took his son there. An Egyptian soldier approached
them, hurled a few curses and shot the boy dead from a close range.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The father
of the murdered child waited in vain for the Israeli authorities to announce
the results of the "investigation" of that crime. Israel probably
asked the Egyptian side if the shooter would be punished, and Egypt did not
respond. Upon my daughter's repeated inquiries to the Israeli military, she was
told by a spokesperson that the investigation was ongoing. In the last visit to
Lakiya, the father of the murdered child was already evasive, and it appeared
that the government had given him compensation in exchange for his silence.
Even during the so-called peace negotiations with Hamas, the Israeli doves give
the Egyptian negotiators a role just to flatter Egyptian vanity, of course
Israel can negotiate a truce with the terrorists by its own force.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Egypt
"mediates" peace by not only systematically slandering Israel in the
UN, but also by organizing anti-Israel actions around the world and preventing
other Islamic states from concluding peace agreements with Israel. In the
recent conflict with Gaza, Egypt was the only country in the world that did not
"believe" an Israeli </span><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%A7%D7%95%D7%91%D7%A5:The_PIJ%27s_Rocket_Misfire_in_Jabaliya.webm"><span lang="EN-US">video showing Palestinians killing</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> their own children with their own
rockets, declaring that it was another crime by Israel. Gaza strip borders only
Israel and Egypt, so rockets and materials for their production can only flow
into Gaza from Egypt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">I don't wish
to state that Egypt is worse than other countries. Every African country, if we
look at it in more detail, seems like hell to a European. However, it is useful
to get a little familiar with life in those countries, and thus appreciate our
civilization more, and not succumb to the delusions of naive idealists who seek
to import as many immigrants as possible, including their colorful culture.
Ancient Egypt was an island of advanced non-African culture in Africa, but
Islam is an island of barbaric culture inside and outside of Africa.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-25955976793938797582022-02-16T17:03:00.035+02:002022-02-19T01:47:11.861+02:00The Structure of SARS-CoV-2 is the Smoking Gun for its Lab Origin – All That is Known About the COVID-19 Origin with All Relevant References<p><u><span lang="EN-US">History of the Coronaviruses and the Wuhan<span style="color: #c00000;"> </span>Institute of Virology</span></u></p>
<div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Coronaviruses
(CoVs) have been broadly studied in China since 2003, and numerous new strains have
been reported. Wuhan coronavirus scientist Dr. Shi Zheng-Li (called “Bat Woman“
by media) co-authored many of the publications </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(10)</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Shi, employed in Wuhan<span style="color: #c00000;"> </span>Institute of Virology (WIV), also worked on enhancing
the ability of bat viruses to attack humans, supposedly to “examine the emergence potential of circulating bat CoVs”, which means their ability to “jump over to humans”. Inter </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">species<span><a name='more'></a></span> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">infections had already been artificially achieved before; in 2000,<span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">for </span>example, the spike glycoprotein of the coronavirus mouse hepatitis virus had
been artificially modified, so that the resulting chimeric virus acquired the ability
to infect cat cells and lost the ability to infect mouse cells <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC111474/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(30)</span></a>.
Shi, however, tried to modify an animal virus to be able to infect human cells,
which modification is called “gain-of-function”, and such experiments should be
very strictly controlled. In 2015,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> Shi and
coworkers modified a harmless bat coronavirus to be capable of infecting human cells
</span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985">(1)</a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; the work was strongly criticized as
a dangerous experiment without any clear merit </span><a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(11)</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.</span></div></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">In 2017, an
article in the prestigious journal<span style="color: #c00000;"> </span><i>Nature</i><span style="color: #c00000;"> </span>warned about the WIV; the labs were built to withstand
a </span>magnitude 7 earthquake, but the Western scientists worried about possible
escapes of the viruses even without any earthquake, in view of known repeated escapes
from the high-level containment facilities in China <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">(2)</a>.
In 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing warned the U.S. government about safety and
management weaknesses at the WIV labs, mentioning a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic
<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-wuhan-coronaviruses-lab-in-2018/"><span lang="EN-US">(1</span>2</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">3)</a>.
Strangely, in September 2019, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board of the WHO,
consisting mostly of Western scientists including Anthony Fauci, published an “Annual
report on global prep for health emergencies”, named “World at <span lang="CS">R</span>isk”, in which they warned about having to
be <span lang="EN-US">“</span>prepared for the worst
in a possible rapidly spreading, lethal respiratory pathogen pandemic<span lang="EN-US">”</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P-uXoP-eJiSEUyVVf-WfpG4xOghz1HjO/view?usp=sharing"><span lang="EN-US">(34)</span></a>. It turn<span lang="EN-US">ed</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>out
<span lang="EN-US">later </span>that the <span lang="EN-US">corona </span>epidemic started much earlier
than <span lang="EN-US">in December 2019 when </span>the
Chinese authorities <span lang="EN-US">admitted
it</span>, <span lang="EN-US">probably</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>in August 2019 <span lang="EN-US">or earlier </span>(<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934">14</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270">15</a>,
<a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html">16</a>),
so that the above “prophetical” Annual <span lang="EN-US">WHO report had probably been inspired by the first epidemic indications.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US">Epidemic of COVID-19 Caused by a New Virus and
Quick Identification of the Virus by the WIV</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On December
31, 2019, the Chinese authorities reported to the WHO an “epidemic of pneumonia
of unknown origin” in the city of Wuhan (</span><a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/12/news-scan-dec-31-2019"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">23</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, </span><a href="https://covidreference.com/timeline"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">24</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, </span><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">25</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">), while locating the origin of the epidemic to
the Wuhan meat market around December 12. Despite the proclaimed novelty of the
infection and its recent origin, the Chinese scientists succeeded to fully characterize
the infectious agent as early as on January 7, 2020, namely merely seven days after
reporting the epidemic, in an article forwarded to the journal <i>Nature</i>. According
to the article, a patient with an unknown disease who worked at the local meat market
was hospitalized on December 26, 2019; a specialized facility began looking for
an unknown infectious factor responsible for the lung finding; extensive RNA sequencing
of the patient's bronchial sample (over 56 million sequences read) resulted in identifying
a new virus, including its entire structure and even its ability to bind to the
ACE2 receptor through which it penetrates human cells; the evolutionary relationship
of the new coronavirus to other viruses was also determined, and it was found that
it is closely related to a bat virus recently found in China </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(1</span>7)</a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Respiratory
problems can be caused by a wide range of viruses, bacteria, and fungi; in this
case, the unknown infection factor was accurately determined at a record rate. According
to the article, the researchers began looking for an unknown infectious factor around
January 1, and within six days they were able to identify and fully characterize
the new virus, allegedly by studying only one patient. However, the authors of the
article, researchers at the University of Shanghai, were surely in contact with
researchers of the WIV, who in parallel related to “the epidemic that started in
Wuhan on December 12”, and who examined samples from seven patients (six of whom
worked in the local meat market), reached similar conclusions as the first group
and sent their results to <i>Nature</i> magazine on January 20 <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7#Sec2">(18)</a>. The second article further announced
the existence of a bat virus, called CoV RaTG13, which surprisingly had very high
genome homology (sometimes called similarity or identity), namely 96% of RNA
sequences, with the newly discovered virus, now called SARS-CoV-2 (shortly
CoV-2), which similarity should wishfully confirm the alleged animal origin of CoV-2.
The leader of the Wuhan Group was Shi Zheng-Li, and China probably wished that the
virus, which caused the global world epidemic, be discovered by someone else than
"the Bat Woman", but the journal <i>Nature</i> decided to publish both
articles simultaneously on February 3.</span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">From the beginning,
China disinformed about the epidemic. As mentioned above, the epidemic had been
already circulating in Wuhan in August 2019. The first WHO Situation Report of January
2020 <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4">(25)</a>
already mentioned the spread of the disease in Beijing and Shanghai, which would
indicate a nationwide epidemic by December, and the Report even mentioned spreading
of the disease (now called COVID 19) to other countries. However, Dr. Shi, in an
interview to <i>Scientific American</i> in February 2020 <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/">(5)</a>,
stated that her boss had told her only on 30 December 2019 that a new coronavirus
had been detected, allegedly mentioning two patients and asking her to examine the
issue. So that the authors of the first article hardly searched for an unknown factor
in one patient on January 1, when coronavirus had already been identified in more
patients at that time; likewise, the authors of the second article had only confirmed
in the seven received samples what had already been known to the Bat Woman’s boss.
Even the CEO of the WIV, Ms. Wang Yanyi, contradicted all the known facts when
she said in a later interview in 2020: “Our institute first received the
clinical sample of the unknown pulmonary disease on December 30 of the last year.
We had not had any knowledge before that, nor had we ever met, researched,
or kept the virus. In fact, like everybody else, we had not even known about
the existence of the virus” <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/video-coronavirus-le-mystere-des-origines_4328629.html">(42)</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Hypothesis of a Natural Origin of the New Virus
is Popular but Fails</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Although the
Chinese authorities even tried to accuse the United States of bringing the virus
to China </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(21)</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, their principal version for the virus origin comprised
an animal source, from which SARS-CoV-2 had “naturally” evolved. The “natural origin”
of the new virus was generally supported by the world mainstream media from the
beginning, an example being condemnation of any attempts to look for an artificial
origin in<span style="color: #c00000;"> </span><i>Guardian</i><span style="color: #c00000;">
</span>on February 20, 2020: “Experts fear false rumors could harm Chinese cooperation
on </span>coronavirus” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-false-rumours-experts"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(19)</span></a>. The scientific <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">media joined the intimidating tone.
F</span>or example, the <i>Nature</i> editors retroactively added a note to their
article of 2017 <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">(2)</a>
saying that the theory of the virus lab origin is unverified<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> (the note was later </span>removed<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">)</span>. <i>Lancet</i> of March 7, 2020
stated: “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that
COVID-19 does not have a natural origin” (<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext">20</a>).
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Said <i>Lancet</i> proclamation
was drafted by Peter Daszak who, although stating no conflict of interests, had funded
the coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(28)</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> and, furthermore, is a co-author of the <span style="font-family: inherit;">above </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">infamous “gain-of-function”
work, together with the “Bat Woman” <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(1)</span></a>. The ubiquitous Daszak is also a member of the WHO team investigating the origin of SARS-CoV-2.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The structural
studies of the new virus in early 2020 showed that SARS-CoV-2 appeared to be optimized
for binding to the human receptor ACE2, and even had newly acquired 12 nucleotides
in its genome enabling it an easy entry to the human cells; however, after reporting
said facts, the authors quickly emphasized that “It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2
emerged through laboratory manipulation” </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9"><span lang="EN-US">(35)</span></a><span lang="EN-US">. The principal factors, considered in the
virus origin, were zoonotic transfer probably via an intermediate animal host,
followed by natural mutations </span><a href="https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/4558-4564.pdf">(<span lang="EN-US">6, </span></a><a href="https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1008421&type=printable"><span lang="EN-US">7,</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9"><span lang="EN-US">35</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098222030662X"><span lang="EN-US">36</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054935/"><span lang="EN-US">37</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139247/#bib0026"><span lang="EN-US">38</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins"><span lang="EN-US">39</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). But some researchers, who are cited less
broadly, considered also eventual artificial interventions, and they did ask more
questions </span><a href="https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-through-the-lens-of-gain-of-function-research-f96dd7413748"><span lang="EN-US">(13</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://zenodo.org/record/4477081#.YgVL6d9BxaR"><span lang="EN-US">29</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744920/"><span lang="EN-US">26</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01541-z"><span lang="EN-US">27</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7859469/"><span lang="EN-US">22</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7435492/"><span lang="EN-US">9)</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> . Whatever the answer, this debate was not only legitimate but vital, as
researcher Xiao Qiang of the University of California, Berkeley, said: "I don't
think it's a conspiracy theory. This is a legitimate question that needs to be addressed
and answered. Knowing exactly how this came about will help prevent it from happening
again” </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/"><span lang="EN-US">(3,</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> </span><a href="https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-wuhan-coronaviruses-lab-in-2018/"><span lang="EN-US">12)</span></a><span lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Very soon
after the epidemic break, the Chinese scientists published genomes of animal
viruses Bat-CoV RaTG13 and Pangolin-CoV 2020, implying that a zoonotic transfer
from bats via, for example, pangolins was feasible, particularly in view of
very high similarity of some of the proteins of the viruses </span><a href="https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1008421&type=printable">(7)</a><span lang="EN-US">, but the attempts to explain the
natural path from an animal host to humans were not persuasive. The closest
virus to SARS-CoV-2 published so far, RaTG13, has 96% RNA homology with CoV-2, which
is too distant (corresponding to several decades of separate evolution) to explain
a recent jump, notwithstanding the strange origin of this strain, miraculously provided
by Dr. Shi Zheng-Li just several weeks after epidemic announcement by China,
even thou the strain had allegedly been isolated in 2013. Despite the fact that
Daszak and Shi had sampled more than 10,000 bats and 2000 other species, and found
some 500 novel coronaviruses, according to a <i>Science</i> article (</span><a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins"><span lang="EN-US">39</span></a><span lang="EN-US">), no virus was closer to <a name="_Hlk95745608">SARS-CoV-2</a>
than RaTG13, and the COVID-19 natural origin remains unsupported.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US">Hypothesis of a Laboratory Origin of the New
Virus is Disliked but Prevails</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Because </span>the
epidemic started close to the high security <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Wuhan Institute of </span>Virology, an escape route from the laboratory is
among the considered scenarios, also in view of the numerous such cases and the
low level of security in the Chinese laboratories <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">(2</a>,
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">3)</a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Incredible sloppiness of the work in
the “highest security” Wuhan labs was indicated by the reports about experimental
animals appearing </span>on the local meat market as some Chinese researchers sell
the laboratory animals to street vendors <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/">(4)</a>.
Even Dr. <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Shi </span>Zheng-Li <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">herself </span>inadvertently admitted,
in her <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">mentioned </span>interview
for <i>Scientific American</i> <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">given
</span>in February <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">and
published in April 2020, </span>that she had wondered whether the new virus could
not originate from her laboratory (“If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers
thinking<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">,</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>‘Could they have come from our lab?<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">’ </span>”<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">)</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/">(5)</a>.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On February
20, 2020, soon after the corona epidemic had officially started, an important
feature of the newly emerged virus was published: an insertion of 12-nucleotides
into the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 within the S1/S2 border region, resulting in four extra
amino acids in positions 681-684 of the spike protein, which binds to the human
receptor ACE2, improves contagiousness of the virus, the extra residues being unique
to this human virus and not being found in any other </span>species<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.956581v1.full.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(32)</span></a>.<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <span lang="EN-US">The inserted </span></span>aminoacids
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">PRRA</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>create
a cleavage site <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">in the S1/S2
region for the human protease furin, </span>facilitating entry in<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">to</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">the </span>target cells<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Within three weeks, the Chinese
scientists and their coworkers hurried to neutralize the unpleasant finding of
the unique furin cleavage site in the CoV-2 genome, and they published a newly
disclosed bat corona virus </span>RmYN02<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <span lang="EN-US">which had “natural insertions </span></span>of multiple amino acids
at the junction site<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">” </span><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.974139v3.full.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(36)</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, supposedly demonstrating that insertions like
said new furin clevage site in CoV-2 arise easily and naturally; however, </span>the
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">allegedly found insertion was
PAA, which is not a furin site, and moreover, it was later found that no
insertions were in fact present in said region of </span>RmYN02 at all <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744920/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(26)</span></a>. Attempts to explain the path
from an animal host to human were failing.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The main<span lang="EN-US">stream
media have not yielded in their resistance toward the artificial origin of
CoV-2. Even in February 2022, it was reported that “the complex evolutionary
history of SARS-related coronavi</span>ruses is disentangled” <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/headline_834072_en.html"><span lang="EN-US">(8)</span></a>, but at the same time <span lang="EN-US">it is </span>admit<span lang="EN-US">ted</span> that a <span lang="EN-US">direct proximal </span>ancestor <span lang="EN-US">(an animal virus with at least 99%
homology with SARS-CoV-2) </span>is still missing; the source of this news, by
the way, is University of Glasgow, which hosts <span lang="EN-US">a C</span>entre for Chinese research<span lang="EN-US"> and </span>Confucius Institute<span lang="EN-US">. On the other hand, scientific media
slowly started to admit there were two legitimate hypotheses: natural origin
versus lab origin. For example, <i>Nature</i> wrote about a new hypothesis of
“multiple animal origins” in September 2021 as follows: “…new finding could be
the dagger into the heart of the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab,
rather than originating from wildlife trade” </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02519-1"><span lang="EN-US">(40)</span></a><span lang="EN-US">. The article at least acknowledged that a lab
escape was also a hypothesis and not a conspiracy theory.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US">Segreto and Deigin’s Review of Both Hypotheses: The Critical Insertion in the CoV-2 Spike Protein Could Hardly Occur Spontaneously and it Employs Codons Rare for Coronaviruses</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A possible
laboratory origin of the new virus was outlined in a well founded and detailed
review of Segreto and Deigin in November 2020 </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744920/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(26)</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. The authors, thoroughly supporting all their
statements by relevant references, defined the two main SARS‐CoV‐2 features:
(1) the presence of a furin cleavage site missing in other CoVs, and (2) a
receptor binding domain (RBD) optimized to bind to human cells. The
simultaneous acquisition of both unique features could hardly be natural or
caused by serial passage, but they could be easily acquired by lab manipulation
techniques such as site‐directed mutagenesis. Chinese researchers had been
generating chimeric CoVs in WIV for years, and the authors carefully documented
how, during the years, the researchers had disinformed the public regarding the
dates when they had found the new strains and sequenced them, including the
famous RaTG13. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Interestingly,
the authors noted that two joint arginins in the acquired furin cleavage site
are coded by two CGGCGG codons, which are rare for these viruses, and CGGCGG in
the new insert is the only doubled instance of this codon in the whole 30,000 nucleotides
genome of SARS‐CoV‐2. Moreover, the CGGCGG insert includes a <i>Fau</i>I
restriction site, which allows using restriction fragment length polymorphism
(RFLP) techniques for cloning or screening for mutations</span>.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The authors
further mentioned the fact that RaTG13 and the pangolin CoV sequences, used in
proving the hypothesis of natural origin of SARS‐CoV‐2, had been
questioned as to the accuracy of their assembly data and had required
further analyses to prove their correctness. Another grave issue was mentioned:
modification and subsequent deletion of WIV's own viral database during 2020. The
authors concluded that the leak of highly dangerous pathogens from laboratories
was not a rare event, the most notable known being 1977 H1N1 lab escape from
China that had caused a worldwide pandemic, and the most recent one being the
November 2019 outbreak of brucellosis that had occurred in two research
centers in Lanzhou, China, infecting over 100 students and staff members.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US">Sallard et al.’s Review of Both Hypotheses: WIV was Caught Cheating About the Origin of Various Coronavirus Strains</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In another
review, Sallard et al. traced the origin of the virus in February 2021 and discussed
the scenarios of a zoonotic emergence versus an accidental escape of a
laboratory strain <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7859469/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(22)</span></a>. Peculiarly, the authors found an exact
match between RaTG13 and an RNA fragment of another bat which was published by
Shi in 2016, which is strange, since RaTG13 was allegedly found in 2013 and
published by Shi in 2020 – this added still more to the obscurity of RaTG13.
Said RNA fragment, moreover, originated from a mine shaft in Yunnan Province
following the death of 3 miners from an atypical pneumonia. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In any case, the authors believed that the
SARS-CoV-2 genome is a “mosaic” genome composed of pieces of at least two
preexisting CoVs. Further they noted that the natural origin could not be
defended in the absence of a direct proximal ancestor, and alternative routes had
to be necessarily considered. For example, SARS-CoV-2 might have been
manufactured in a laboratory, or it may have resulted from a bat virus that
became adapted to other species in laboratory animal models and then escaped
from the laboratory. It may have also come from a viral strain that was cultured
on human cells in a laboratory in order to study its infectious potential, and
that was progressively “humanized” (adapted to humans) by selection of the
viruses having the highest ability to spread in these conditions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>Nicholas Wade</u><span lang="EN-US"><u>’s Review of Both Hypotheses: The Virus Was Adapted to Human Cells as Described in the Grants Assigned to Peter Daszak and Subcontracted to Dr. </u></span></span><span style="text-align: justify;"><u>Shi Zheng-Li</u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Nicholas Wade, editor and author who had worked on the
staff of <i>Nature</i>, <i>Science</i>, and the <i>New York Times</i>, summarized the known facts in
May 2021, and showed that the origin of COVID-19 in one of Wuhan labs was
hardly refutable <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(28)</span></a>.
Wade noted that SARS-CoV-2 had been adapted to human cells from the start because it
had been grown in humanized mice or in lab cultures of human cells, just as
described in Daszak’s grant proposal (grants were assigned to Daszak of the
EcoHealth Alliance, who subcontracted them to Shi; absurdly, Daszak was named by the WHO to investigate the virus origin). Wade further summarized that the invasion cannot
begin until the S1 and S2 subunits of the spike protein have been cut apart. And there, right at the
S1/S2 junction, is the furin cleavage site that ensures the spike protein will
be cleaved in exactly the right place. The virus relies on the cell to do the
cleaving for it. Human cells have a protein cutting tool on their surface known
as furin. Furin will cut any protein chain that carries its signature target
cutting site. This is the sequence of amino acid units PRRA at the core of furin
cleavage site. And no known SARS-related coronavirus possesses a furin cleavage
site. CoV-2 has the 12-nucleotide insert right at the S1/S2 junction. The
insert is the sequence T-CCT-CGG-CGG-GC. The CCT codes for proline, the two
CGG’s for two arginins, and the GC is the beginning of a GCA codon that codes
for alanine. The double codon CGG-CGG for two arginine residues has not been
found in any other beta-coronavirus </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(28)</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">.</span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: #1000; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Other Scenarios</span></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Nothing can
be excluded at this stage. The above considered lab origin assumes genetic
manipulations performed in the lab, but it might be possible that an isolated
strain escaped from a lab without other lab manipulations. Additionally, the importance of recombination in the virus evolution is emphasized in many sources, as well as the mosaic
character of the CoV-2 genome <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7859469/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(22)</span></a>; recombination events might be involved even under lab conditions. The appearance of the omicron strain may also complicate the genetic relations
among the known CoV-2 strains, as it seems rather different from the previous ones <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04411-y"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(41)</span></a>; the above-mentioned hypothesis of multiple origin comes to mind <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02519-1"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(40)</span></a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Without true information from the Chinese
institutions, anything may be considered, including intentional release of the
SARS virus or viruses. This act might be organized by any component of the
highest leadership in China, comprising the Central Committee of the Communist Party or secret services. A perfidious eventuality of independently releasing
two portions of somewhat different strains, possibly to confuse investigators
may be theoretically also considered. The best way for China to gain the
world’s trust will include providing true information, even if inconvenient for
their self-image.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">China's Deception and the Smoking Gun for the Lab Origin of COVID-19</span></span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The U.S. government
announced in their Fact Sheet of January 2021 that it had a reason to believe that
several researchers inside the WIV had become sick in autumn 2019, before the first
identified case of the outbreak <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan-institute-of-virology/index.html"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(31)</span></a>.
The Fact Sheet further noted that accidental infections in labs had caused several
previous virus outbreaks in China and elsewhere, including a 2004 SARS outbreak
in Beijing that had infected nine people, killing one. Starting in at least 2016
– and with no indication of a stop prior to the COVID-19 outbreak – WIV researchers
had conducted experiments involving bat coronavirus RaTG13, identified by the WIV
in January 2020 as its closest sample to SARS-CoV-2. The WIV had become a focal
point for international coronavirus research after the 2003 SARS outbreak and had
since studied animals including mice, bats, and pangolins. The WIV had a record
of conducting “gain-of-function” research to engineer chimeric viruses. But the
WIV had not been transparent or consistent about studying COVID-19 like viruses,
or RaTG13 virus even after several miners died of SARS-like illness. For many years
the United States had publicly raised concerns about China’s past biological weapons
work, which Beijing had not documented, despite its clear obligations under the
Biological Weapons Convention. Despite the WIV presenting itself as a civilian institution,
it has collaborated with China’s military <a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan-institute-of-virology/index.html"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(31)</span></a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It can be
added that China even disinforms about its real numbers of COVID-19 positive cases
and deaths. So far they reported 74 cases and 3 deaths per million people, when
the developed countries report between 20,000 and 300,000 cases per million and
between 140 and 3500 deaths per million people in February 2022 </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WR6xQRtkLEvhHmcqJRrRlXHidpPw0Io_/view" style="font-family: inherit;"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(33)</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">.
The total number of reported deaths in China has been constantly 4636 for a year now,
which is neither compatible with other countries, nor with the reports about
millions of fewer cellphone users in China already during the first three
months of 2020 </span><a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html" style="font-family: inherit;"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(16)</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The odd
insertion of the consensus recognition motif of the furin protease, PRRA, is
recent since it is absent from all the close relatives of SARS-CoV-2. This
observation is crucial as this site probably played a key role in the species
barrier crossing and/or in the efficiency of human-to-human transmission, which
is a prerequisite for the emergence of epidemics. The nucleotide codons coding
for RR, namely the double codon CGG-CGG for two arginine residues, made the Nobel
prize winner David Baltimore, eminent virologist and former president of
CalTech, call it the smoking gun for the lab origin of the virus </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/" style="font-family: inherit;"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">(28)</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">.
</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After two years of the global paralysis, and as more
than 400 million people around the world have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and
about 6 million have died, the world deserves the truth about the virus origin.
An escape from one of the Wuhan laboratories seems to be the only feasible origin
– until China does not provide reliable information supporting another scenario. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">References</span></span></u></p>
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<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">22.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Sallard
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<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">31.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan-institute-of-virology/index.html"><i>An
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<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">32.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Walls
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<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">33.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Guttmann T. <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WR6xQRtkLEvhHmcqJRrRlXHidpPw0Io_/view?usp=sharing"><i>World
corona values</i></a> extracted from Worldometers 11 Feb 2022. </span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">34. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fauci
A. et al. “</span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P-uXoP-eJiSEUyVVf-WfpG4xOghz1HjO/view?usp=sharing"><i>Annual
report on global preparedness</i></a> for health emergencies<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">” by T</span>he Global Preparedness Monitoring Board<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, </span>WHO, <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Septembe</span><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;">r 2019. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;">35. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Andersen
K.G. et al. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9"><i>Nature Medicine</i></a>
26, 450–452 (2020).</span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;">36.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Zhou
H. et al. A Novel Bat Coronavirus Closely Related to SARS-CoV-2 Contains Natural
Insertions at the S1/S2 Cleavage Site of the Spike Protein. </span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098222030662X"><i>Current</i><i><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;"> Biology</span></i></a><i><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;"> </span></i><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;">30, 2196-2203 (2020). Preprinted as </span><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.974139v3"><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;">bioRxiv</span></a><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;"> on 11 </span>Mar 2020<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="CS" style="mso-ansi-language: CS;">37.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Liu
S.L. et al. No credible evidence supporting claims of the laboratory
engineering of SARS-CoV-2. </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054935/"><i>Emerg Microbes
Infect</i></a>. 9<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">,</span>
505–507<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> (</span>2020<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">38. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Li
H. et al. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): current status and future
perspectives. </span><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139247/#bib0026"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Int J Antimicrob Agents</span></i></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. 55(5), 105951 (2020).</span></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">39.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cohen
J. Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origin. </span><a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Science</span></i></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> 31 Jan 2020. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">40.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mallapaty
S. Did the coronavirus jump from animals to people twice? </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02519-1"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Nature</span></i></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> 597, 458-459 (2021). 16 Sep 2021. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">41.<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Viana
R. Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern
Africa. </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04411-y"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Nature</span></i></a><i><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></i></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(2022). 7 Jan 2022.</span></span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US">42. </span><a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/video-coronavirus-le-mystere-des-origines_4328629.html"><i><span lang="EN-US">Franceinfo</span></i></a><span lang="EN-US">. Covid-19 : enquête sur le mystère des origines d'une pandémie mondiale. 11
Mar 2021.</span></span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-4781009242421287142022-02-12T17:06:00.002+02:002022-02-12T18:17:19.630+02:00A Concise Overview of the Covid-19 Pandemic Dates: 2015-2022 <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2015<br />
The leading Wuhan coronavirus scientist, Dr. Shi Zheng-Li, together with
several US scientists modified a harmless bat coronavirus to be capable of
infecting the human </span>cells <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985">(1)</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS">.<span><br /></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2017 <br />
Western scientists warned of possible virus leaks </span>from laboratories in
Wuhan <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">(2)</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS">.<span></span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2018<br />
US <span lang="EN-US">diplomats</span> warned
against coronavirus leaks from the laboratories in Wuhan <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">(3)</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS">.</span></span><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2019 Aug <br />
<span lang="EN-US">Satellite</span> images showed
a surge in traffic outside Wuhan hospitals <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934">(14)</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS">.</span></span><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2019 Sep <br />
T</span>he Global Preparedness Monitoring Board of the WHO, <span lang="EN-US">including </span>Anthony Fauci, published a
first “Annual report on global preparedness for health emergencies”, in which they warned about a possible rapidly spreading,
lethal respiratory pathogen pandemic<span lang="EN-US"> (</span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P-uXoP-eJiSEUyVVf-WfpG4xOghz1HjO/view?usp=sharing"><span lang="EN-US">34</span></a><span lang="EN-US">).</span><br />
<!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2019 Dec 31 <br />
China reported an <span lang="EN-US">“</span>epidemic
of pneumonia of unknown origin<span lang="EN-US">”</span>
in the city of Wuhan (<a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/12/news-scan-dec-31-2019">23)</a>, and the Wuhan police announced
investigating eight people for <span lang="EN-US">“</span>spreading
rumors of a new infection<span lang="EN-US">”</span>
(<a href="https://covidreference.com/timeline">24)</a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS">.</span></span><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2020 Jan 07<br />
</span>The journal <i>Nature</i> received a work by Chinese scientists who
allegedly just succeeded in
isolating and identifying a new coronavirus<span lang="EN-US"> causing said epidemic of unknown origin, </span>within <span lang="EN-US">merely </span>six days<span lang="EN-US"> and</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">based on a single patient. T</span>he
infection <span lang="EN-US">allegedly </span>originat<span lang="EN-US">ed</span> on the Wuhan meat market <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3"><span lang="EN-US">(1</span>7)</a>.<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2020 Jan 21<br />
The World Health Organization (WHO) issued Situation Report No 1 (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4">25)</a>
announcing that a new viral disease had emerged in China at the end of
December, that China had shared the genome sequence with the world for
developing diagnostic kits on January 12 and that the disease had meanwhile
spread throughout China including the giant cities of Beijing and Shanghai, and
also neighboring countries including Japan, Korea and Thailand<span lang="CS">.</span><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2020 Jan 23<br />
The WHO’s situation report No 3 announced the spread of the disease in the
United States <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=d6d23643_8">(26)</a>,
and on 25 January, report No 5 announced the spread worldwide (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200125-sitrep-5-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=429b143d_8">27</a>).<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2020 Feb 03<br />
Two articles by Chinese scientists were published in <i>Nature</i>, the first
one being the above mentioned article received on January 7 </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3"><span lang="EN-US">(1</span>7)</a><span lang="EN-US">, and the second one, co-authored by Dr. Shi
Zheng-Li, having been received on January 20 </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7#Sec2"><span lang="EN-US">(18)</span></a><span lang="EN-US">. Within merely two weeks, the scientists seemingly
managed to </span>identify and <span lang="EN-US">thoroughly
</span>characterize “<span lang="EN-US">an </span>unknown<span lang="EN-US"> agent</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">causing the new d</span>isease<span lang="EN-US">”</span>. <span lang="EN-US">T</span>he second article also announce<span lang="EN-US">d</span> the existence of a bat
virus, called CoV RaTG13 (allegedly known to them but <span lang="EN-US">never </span>published since 2013), which <span lang="EN-US">surprisingly </span>ha<span lang="EN-US">d</span> 96% homology with the newly discovered
CoV-2<span lang="EN-US">, supposedly suggesting the animal
origin of Covid-19</span>.<br />
<!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2020 Feb 19<br />
Dr. Peter Daszak, president of US based EcoHealth Alliance, that had funded the
coronavirus gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, strongly
condemned “conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural
origin” in an article published by the prestigious medical journal <i>The Lancet
</i></span><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext"><span lang="EN-US">(20)</span></a><span lang="EN-US">.<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2021 Jan 1 <br />
<span lang="EN-US">During t</span>he first
pandemic year<span lang="EN-US">, </span>85
million positively tested people and about 2 million deaths were reported <span lang="EN-US">worldwide</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WR6xQRtkLEvhHmcqJRrRlXHidpPw0Io_/view">(33)</a>.<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2021 May 5 <br />
</span>Nicholas Wade, editor and author who had worked on the staff of <i>Nature</i>,
<i>Science</i>, and the <i>New York Times</i>,<span lang="EN-US"> summarized the known facts, and showed that
the origin of Covid-19 in one of Wuhan labs was hardly refutable </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/"><span lang="EN-US">(28)</span></a><span lang="EN-US">.<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2021 Dec 31 <br />
Since Jan 1, 2021, 60% world population was vaccinated by one dose, 50% by two doses,
and 7% by three doses.<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2022 Jan 1 <br />
<span lang="EN-US">During the</span> second
pandemic year, 215 million more people were positively tested and 3 million more
died despite the vaccination
throughout 2021, <span lang="EN-US">raising the
total reported cases to</span> 300 million and <span lang="EN-US">total reported deaths to </span>5 million <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WR6xQRtkLEvhHmcqJRrRlXHidpPw0Io_/view">(33)</a>.<br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">2022 Feb 1 <br />
The reported positive cases corresponded to between 2% and 30% population in
the developed countries, and 5% worldwide; China reported only 0.007%. The
developed countries reported between 140 and 3500 dead per million people, while
China reported only 3 dead per million <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WR6xQRtkLEvhHmcqJRrRlXHidpPw0Io_/view">(33)</a>.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">References:</span><span style="font-size: small; text-align: left;"> </span></p><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US">1. </span><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration-line: none;">Menachery</span></a>
V.D. et al. A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows
potential for human emergence. <i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985">Nature Medicine</a></i> 21, 1508–1513
(2015).</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">2. Cyranoski D. Inside the Chinese lab poised
to study world's most dangerous pathogens. <i><a href="https://www.nature.com/">Nature</a></i>
542, 399–400 (2017).</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">3. <i><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">The
Washington Post</a></i> 14 April 2020. Department cables warned of safety
issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruse.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">14. <i><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934">BBC</a></i> 9 Jun
2020. Coronavirus: Satellite traffic images may suggest virus hit Wuhan
earlier.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">17. Wu F. et al. A new coronavirus associated
with human respiratory disease in China. <span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3">Nature</a></i></span>
579, 265–269 (2020). </span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">18. Zhou P. et al. A pneumonia outbreak
associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. <i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7#Sec2">Nature</a></i>
579, 270–273 (2020).</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">20. Calisher C.<span lang="EN-US">, Daszak P. </span>et al. Statement in support
of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of
China combatting COVID-19. <i><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext">The
Lancet</a></i> <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/vol395no10226/PIIS0140-6736(20)X0010-9"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration-line: none;">395 (10226</span></a>)
e42-e43,2020.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">23. <i><a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/12/news-scan-dec-31-2019">CIDRAP</a></i>
31 Dec 2019. Chinese officials probe unidentified pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan. </span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">24. <i><a href="https://covidreference.com/timeline">COVID REFERENCE</a></i> 31 Dec 2019.
</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">25. <i><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4">WHO
SITUATION REPOR<span lang="CS">T 1</span></a></i> 21
Jan 2020.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">26. <i><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=d6d23643_8">WHO
SITUATION REPORT 3</a></i> 23 Jan 2020.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">27. <i><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200125-sitrep-5-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=429b143d_8">WHO
SITUATION REPORT 5</a></i> 25 Jan 2020.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">28. Wade N. The origin of COVID: Did people or
nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan? <i><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/">Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists</a></i> 5 May 2021.</span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">33. Guttmann T. <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WR6xQRtkLEvhHmcqJRrRlXHidpPw0Io_/view?usp=sharing">World
corona values</a> extracted from Worldometers 11 Feb 2022. </span></div><div style="margin-left: 22.7pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -22.7pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US">34. Fauci
A. et al. “</span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P-uXoP-eJiSEUyVVf-WfpG4xOghz1HjO/view?usp=sharing">Annual
report on global preparedness</a> for health emergencies<span lang="EN-US">” by T</span>he Global Preparedness Monitoring
Board<span lang="EN-US">, </span>WHO, <span lang="EN-US">September 2019.</span></span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 68.05pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -68.05pt;">
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-25108255786312342622022-01-18T15:58:00.015+02:002022-01-25T01:19:38.606+02:00Ranking All World Countries by Covid Mortality After Two Years with Covid-19 and Examining the Factors Affecting the Ranking <p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">In the
attached Table, the countries are listed according to the decreasing Covid-19
deaths per million people (mortality), as provided by the website Worldometers (</span><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">) on 10 January 2022; 70 countries out of 222 have
been selected while keeping their world ranking. The world average values are also
included (being between the 100<sup>th</sup> and the 101<sup>st</sup> country).
Beside the country’s world mortality ranking, also included in the Table are
the case fatality rate (CFR, the ratio of the reported deaths and</span></div><span lang="EN-US"><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="text-align: justify;">reported confirmed
cases, x 100), the country’s world ranking according to the decreasing number
of the reported cases per million people (morbidity), and the population fraction
vaccinated by 1/, 2/ or 3/ doses.</div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5QfPj_ohU4Els556YmAJF1Ar-6MDlKpW1A2uXBMaFnx6ArWkYauY11cJeVhgA3kWluUda2q_dVMWOjXqWmi-CrBuSrXxDOtlOyeCvseABShyY8WKIt0PLZlusnbDQ08GjQaDIs5sou00iXmjS8bnHevKdtiNnImvC8wJB5RQeJXUYNj3kcE0mM-rZ=s1754" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1240" data-original-width="1754" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5QfPj_ohU4Els556YmAJF1Ar-6MDlKpW1A2uXBMaFnx6ArWkYauY11cJeVhgA3kWluUda2q_dVMWOjXqWmi-CrBuSrXxDOtlOyeCvseABShyY8WKIt0PLZlusnbDQ08GjQaDIs5sou00iXmjS8bnHevKdtiNnImvC8wJB5RQeJXUYNj3kcE0mM-rZ=w640-h452" width="640" /></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The mortality
values are dispersed in an incredibly wide range of from 6030 people per
million for Peru (the 1<sup>st</sup> in the list) to merely 3 people per
million for China (the last in the list). Following is an attempt to find factors
causing the differences among the countries.</p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Underreported
deaths</span></u></div>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Generally,
it is estimated that more than 50% but less than 75% Covid deaths have been
missed globally (</span><a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2239"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). However, developing countries usually report
much less deaths than developed countries, and much less of positive cases as
well, which mostly results from the lower number of performed tests. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Furthermore,
the countries differ in the procedures for completing the death certificate –
whether an external examination is needed or who completes the certificate. For
example, in Austria and Germany, any death must be subjected to an external
examination by a physician, but not in England during the Covid pandemic, when
a death can be confirmed in the absence of an external examination. In Italy,
the death certificate must include Covid-19 as a cause of death when the
SARS-CoV-2 is suspected (</span><a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/Assets/Documents/PDF/working-paper-series/10-20-Anne-West.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). That would place Germany and Austria behind
Great Britain and Italy in the deaths counts, and indeed, the four mentioned
countries are ranked 67<sup>th</sup>, 56<sup>th</sup>, 30<sup>th</sup>, and 25<sup>th</sup>,
respectively (see the Table), so that Germany and Austria would be relatively
underreported. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Underreported
deaths and confirmed cases due to less tests<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The number
of tests performed per 100 people in the country (also shown on Worldometers)
may affect the number of identified deaths and positive cases. For example,
United Kingdom performed 630 tests per 100 people and Germany performed only 106
tests per 100 people, which might have affected the identified deaths and
positive cases: about 2200 deaths and 220,000 cases per million in the UK and about
1400 deaths and 95,000 cases per million in Germany, respectively. <u><o:p></o:p></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Developing
countries are mostly in the second half of the list of 222 countries (or regions)
arranged according to the decreasing number of deaths, testing less than 50 people from 100, or even less than 4 per 100. Indonesia with a
population of 278 million is 119<sup>th</sup> in the world list of mortalities,
India with 1.4 billion population is 130<sup>th</sup>, Egypt with 103 million
is 143<sup>rd</sup>, Nigeria with 213 million is 197<sup>th</sup>, and China
with 1.4 billion is 208<sup>th</sup>. Similar results are obtained when
arranging the countries according to decreasing number of positively tested
people (confirmed cases). The developing countries have younger population,
which can partly explain lower mortality, but low testing and underreporting the
dead and the ill surely contribute to the low values of reported deaths and confirmed
cases. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Overreported
deaths<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Some
countries may have reported more deaths for various reasons. For example, Peru
which is ranked as the 1<sup>st</sup> in the world in the number of deaths per
million, may report a higher number of deaths due to a one-off correction which
has tripled the previous official Covid-19 deaths value in order to align it closer
with the excess mortality values (</span><a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2239"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, </span><a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1442?ijkey=43295cbd61b59ecc2bd380e667c6c1eb79e311a3&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). The real Covid mortality in Peru thus might be
closer to Bulgaria, ranked the 2<sup>nd</sup>, or possibly even to Romania,
ranked 11<sup>th</sup>; anyway, the lower healthcare standard, including access
to health coverage and the number of intensive care beds, have surely had to contribute
to the Peru’s high mortality too (</span><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-peru-became-the-country-with-the-highest-covid-death-rate-in-the-world-169779"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Czech
Republic, ranked 8<sup>th</sup>, motivates hospitals to report patients as
Covid-infected, because the health insurance companies pay to the hospitals ten
times more for Covid patients than for other patients (</span><a href="https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/za-pacienty-s-covidem-je-priplatek-tyden-pece-prijde-na-temer-580-tisic-130239"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">), which substantially helped the hospitals in
their payment balance (</span><a href="https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/koronavirus-rozpocet-nemocnice-ministerstvo-zdravotnictvi_2102170709_pj"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). The U.S., ranked 20<sup>th</sup>, also
motivate the hospitals to report Covid cases (</span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">High
deaths in the former communist countries<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Of the
first 19 highest-deaths countries, 15 are the former members of the Soviet
bloc. Most of these countries have since progressed toward the Western democracies;
however, it can be hypothesized that the originally lower standard of the
health system may still have some effects, and interestingly also that the
Covid most vulnerable people, namely aged 65+, lived an important part of their
lives under said very unhealthy regimens exhibiting not only the low standards
of the healthcare, but also very bad environmental and nutrition situation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Although it
seems that the former East German regions do not exhibit higher mortality than
the former West German regions, mortality from preventable and treatable causes
in EP is the highest in Hungary, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia,
Croatia, Bulgaria, Poland, Czechia, and Slovenia (</span><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/state/docs/2021_chp_bulgaria_english.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Excess
deaths due to low-quality healthcare<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Excess
mortality in 2020-2021 has been higher than reported Covid-19 deaths in some
countries in Eastern Europe, Africa, Mexico, and India. Even before the
pandemic, an estimated five million deaths annually worldwide were allegedly due
to low-quality healthcare. Excess deaths, however, may also have substantial
natural annual fluctuation; e.g., Australia and Thailand saw 7% increases in
deaths in 2019 versus 2018. Moreover, excess deaths in 2020-2021 reflect both Covid-19
and several death causes that possibly increased or decreased during the
pandemic; death certificates have always been inaccurate, and financial
incentives promoted some values (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8318048/">here</a></span>).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">For
example, the excess deaths per million people during the first 18 months of the
Covid-19 pandemic were 2474 in the U.S. (corresponding roughly to the present Covid
deaths), 4456 in Mexico (more than the present Covid deaths), and even minus
277 (curiously decreased mortality) in Norway, which reports 246 Covid deaths (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/data-insights/excess-mortality-since-january-2020">here</a></span>). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US">Low
deaths in the island countries</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The island
countries have relatively lower deaths values, including Ireland, Malta,
Cyprus, Japan, Iceland, Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand. Some geographically
relatively isolated areas, mostly peninsulas, also exhibit low deaths, such as
Denmark, Singapore, and South Korea. These regions have probably been also more
motivated than others, and have had better means, to introduce stricter
protective and isolating measures.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
effect of the population age<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">With an
increasing age, mortality increases three times for every ten years (</span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/11/data-from-czechia-israel-sweden-and-us.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). Therefore, most deaths afflict people 65
years or older. This fact can explain, for example, the difference between the
mortality values of Sweden and Israel, namely 1504 and 887 per million,
respectively. Sweden has 20% people being at least 65 years old, whereas Israel
has only 10% people of this age. So that (1504/2 =) 752 deaths could be
expected for Israel; the real value of 887 is not far from that. <u><o:p></o:p></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
effect of the government measures<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Strict
measures in the mentioned island or peninsula countries may have restricted the
epidemic spread. Several other countries, including Norway, have managed to
keep the number of cases and deaths lower, probably due to the strict bans on
travel and contacts. However, most countries do not show a clear correlation
between strict measures and lower deaths. The above example of Sweden and
Israel can be cited also here: Israel has introduced severe lockdowns, travel
bans, and compulsory masks, but still it has had more deaths than would be
expected for its younger population when compared with Sweden, which has
managed the epidemic in a most liberal way. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sweden,
which has never introduced strict measures or even compulsory masks, is ranked
57<sup>th</sup> in the deaths per million and 46<sup>th</sup> in the number of confirmed cases per million people, situated in the list behind most other developed
countries, which have introduced much stricter measures. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It turned
out that hermetic closure against the virus was impossible, as seen for example
in Taiwan (</span><a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300341541/covid19-nz-risk-of-taiwanstyle-outbreak-if-delta-variant-takes-hold-expert-warns"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">), but several countries may have managed to well
survive their lockdowns and strict measures till the appearance of the vaccine, and may
have lowered their number of deaths in comparison with the remaining world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
numbers of confirmed cases<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The world
countries arranged according to the decreasing number of confirmed positive
cases per million (Worldometers) provide a ranking, which is also shown in the
Table. A great discrepancy between the death ranking and the case ranking
indicates either different lethality (due to different healthcare or different
virus strain) or inaccuracies in the reported values, or both. For example, the
U.S. have the same ranking in the deaths and in the cases (20<sup>th</sup> and
20<sup>th</sup>, see the Table). However, Peru (1<sup>st</sup> and 100<sup>th</sup>,
respectively) should probably show less of the deaths or more of the positive
cases or both; the same pays for Bosna (3<sup>rd</sup>, 82<sup>nd</sup>). On
the other hand, Denmark (114<sup>th</sup>, 29<sup>th</sup>) should probably
show more of deaths or less of positive cases or both; or alternatively, they
had a more benign Covid strain (less probable), or they managed the epidemic more
successfully with less victims.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The numbers
of positively tested people cover roughly between 10% and 25% population in
most developed countries. For example, Switzerland, Germany, and Netherland
have positively tested 19%, 9%, and 21% population, respectively. In case of Germany,
which exhibits similar mortality as the other two countries, the lower number
of confirmed cases may result from underreporting, already mentioned above; this is also
reflected by the CFR, which is double in Germany in comparison with Switzerland
and Netherland (the ratio of deaths/cases is higher when the number of cases is
lower, see the Table). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
unknown population infection rates<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The numbers
of positively tested people (confirmed cases) represent, for example, 4% of the
total population for the world, and 32% for Montenegro. Several countries show
an extremely low fraction of positively tested population, including Japan
(2%), South Korea (1%), and Taiwan (0.1%), but most developed countries range
between about 10% and 25%. However, the real number of people who have been
infected must be higher than the number of positively tested, since many people
have no symptoms, many do not report symptoms, and many do not test. The real
numbers of infected people seemed to be 10 times higher in the starting phase
of the pandemic (</span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/12/explaining-one-year-with-covid-19-and.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">), but now they may be rather thrice or twice the
reported cases. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Strangely,
the total number of infected people – highly important epidemic parameter – has
never been assessed in any country, even though it would be measurable by
taking random population samples (checking both PCR and the anti-Covid immunity
of the unvaccinated people). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Rough
estimation may provide that between 25% and 75% populations having been
infected by Covid-19 in most countries. The countries with lower infection rates
can be expected to increase the morbidity and mortality values in the future more
than the countries with higher infection rates. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Unreliable
reported values<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Some
countries report not too reliable values, particularly developing countries, and
authoritative regimens. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Evidently
erroneous are the values provided by China: the deaths per million people, for
example, reported by China are by three orders lower than the values for most
other countries, even though </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">SARS-Cov-2
virus undeniably escaped from Wuhan laboratories and was spreading in the whole
country from summer 2019 till December 2019 before it was reported to the WHO.
The reported Chinese deaths of 3 per million and positive cases of 71 per
million till January 2022 can hardly be believed, particularly in view of the
values 36 and 746 for the neighboring Taiwan, or 1504 and 153,000 for Sweden.
The numbers of performed tests reported by China, a value of 10 per 100 people not having changed for 16 months, seem also nonsensical (</span><a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/china/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, </span><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Case
fatality rates<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The ratio
of the deaths and the confirmed cases, when multiplied by 100 (the percent
death of all cases), is called case fatality rate (CFR), and it is also shown
in the Table. Higher fatality rate may indicate worse healthcare, but it also
reflects a lower number of the positively tested people, which is in accordance
with the fact that CFR in the Table correlates with the number of tests
performed per 100 people in the country (also shown on Worldometers) – the more
tests, the lower CFR. For example, only 68 tests per 100 people have been
performed in Peru, 50 in Bosna, 10 in Mexico, and 41 on Taiwan (fatality rates
of 8.6, 4.6, 7.3, and 4.9, respectively), while 340 tests per 100 people have
been performed in Georgia, 260 in the U.S., 630 in the United Kingdom, and 780
on Cyprus (fatality rates of 1.5, 1.4, 1.0, and 0.3, respectively). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Switzerland
and Germany, already mentioned above, both exhibit mortality of about 1400 per
million, but the former shows CFR of 0.8% and the latter 1.5%, which results
from the fact that Switzerland positively tested 19% population (employing 176
tests per 100 people), whereas Germany confirmed only 9% (106 tests per 100
people).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Covid-19
lethality<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The traditional
Western democratic countries, supposed to report the values accurately, show
the CFR values of 1.4% (U.S.) or less such as 1.1% for Sweden, 1.0% for UK, 0.8%
for Switzerland, 0.6% for Netherland, 0.5% for Israel, 0.4% for Denmark, 0.3%
for Norway, 0.2% for Australia, and 0.1% for Iceland (see the Table). The real
fatality rate, lethality (100 x dead/really infected), should be close to the CFR
values found in the countries more strictly tracking the cases; the last
four above-named countries provide an average CFR of about 0.25%. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If
supposing that the whole population has already been infected, then the U.S.
2573 deaths per million would provide 0.2573 dead per 100 infected, which would
make about 0.26% lethality. Similarly, Sweden would provide 0.15%, UK 0.22%,
Switzerland 0.14%, Netherland 0.12%, and Israel about 0.1% (see the Table). If assuming
that there are no differences among different Covid strains, the real lethality
for Covid-19 (fraction of the people dying after infection) would be between
0.1% and 0.2%, which is in accordance with the previous estimations (</span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/12/explaining-one-year-with-covid-19-and.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The fraction
of the vaccinated population<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The effect
of the vaccination rate on the total deaths is not too clear in the Table; low
vaccination countries are dispersed along the whole list (2<sup>nd</sup> Bulgaria,
19<sup>th</sup> Moldova, 117<sup>th</sup> Cyprus), as well as high vaccination
countries (1<sup>st </sup>Peru, 21<sup>st</sup> Argentina, 114<sup>th</sup> Denmark).
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
Worldometers website enables to well compare the number of the deaths during
the first year and the second year of the pandemics. It is seen that the number
of deaths was the same or higher in the second year, even though the
vaccination was performed in this second year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Extrapolating
the future mortality from the last week deaths<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For example,
in the U.S., the deaths have increased from 2573 to 2616 per million from
January 10 to January 17, adding 43 more deaths per million per week; for a
wave lasting 10 weeks, this would make 430 additional deaths, increasing the
mortality of 2573 by 17%. Such extrapolation provides, for example, the following
mortality increase predictions: more than 100% for Taiwan and Australia, more
than 50% for Iceland and Finland, more than 25% for South Korea, Japan, Cyprus,
Denmark, Monaco, Malta, and Poland. The predictions for other developed
countries are lower, for example 17% for the U.S. and Bulgaria, 15% for Italy, 13%
for Germany, France, and UK, 9% for Sweden, and 7% for Czechia. So that the
low-mortality countries will mostly increase their mortalities relatively to the
high-mortality countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Conclusions</span></u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(1) The
countries of the former Soviet Bloc lead the list of mortalities with 2,500 to
4,500 deaths per million people (9 out of the first 11 countries are
East-European, and 15 out of 19 are from the Bloc). This may reflect i) a still
lower standard of the healthcare relatively to the Western Europe, and ii) the bad
effects of the life in a communist country (bad food, environment, and
healthcare) on the people who nowadays are 65 and older.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(2) Following
in the mortality list are Western democratic and South American countries with
1000 to 2,500 deaths per million, mostly situated among the first 100 countries
in the list (there are 222 countries, the average world value is found between
the 100<sup>th</sup> and the 101<sup>st</sup> country).</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(3) Dispersed
in the second half of the mortality list are developed countries situated on
islands and peninsulas, including Denmark, Cyprus, Japan, Singapore, Iceland,
South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand, and several other countries
including Israel, Finland, and Norway, that all have managed to better isolate
themselves, with 10 to 1000 deaths per million. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(4) Roughly
¾ of the world population live in developing countries, which do not appear in
the first half of the list of mortalities, reporting between 2 and 400 deaths
per million. Most of these countries underreport deaths and cases. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(5) The
second lowest deaths value in the world is 3 per million – reported by the
People’s Republic of China. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(6) Beside
the above-mentioned effects, the country mortality ranking as shown in the Table
is affected by i) the local rules about diagnosis and about death certificates,
ii) the motivation of the health authorities to overestimate or underestimate
the deaths or cases numbers, iii) the quality of the local medical care, iv)
the quality and quantity of the performed tests, v) the age composition of the
population and its medical history, and vi) the fraction of actually infection
population which still broadly ranges possibly between 1% and 90%. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(7) The differences
in mortality among the countries would be lower without differences in rules
for virus testing and for death reporting. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(8) The
above mortality ranking of the countries is probably not much affected by
different virus strains or by different protective measures taken in various
countries (including the vaccination), except for the mentioned island
isolation issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">(9) Retrospectively,
it may be hypothesized that if all available protection measures were better focused
on the people aged 65+ (not consistently applied anywhere, including Sweden),
the mortality might have theoretically been kept under 1000 per million
everywhere, even without isolating the countries, vaccinating the people, and introducing
most other measures; most people younger than 65 would have finally been exposed to
Covid-19, whereby being protected against future corona infections better than by vaccination, and the lethality would have been below 0.1% of the infected people.</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-87393604541712511942021-12-02T21:45:00.006+02:002022-01-05T23:56:29.699+02:00How Much Carbon Dioxide Does Humankind Breathe out and How is Human Caloric Consumption Translated Into Its Total Power Output in Megawatts? How Does Human Energy Output Compare with the Fossil Power Plants? <p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Carbon
dioxide production by the human body</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Globally, electricity
generation emits nearly <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/595640#:~:text=Globally%2C%20power%20generation%20emits%20nearly,total%20or%202.8%20billion%20tons">10
billion tons</a> of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year</span>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_power_station">of which 60%</a>
are produced from fossil fuels, providing 6 billion tons CO2.</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The human exhalation
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minute_ventilation">volume is 6 to 12 liters</a>,
according to the activity intensity; the exhaled air contains <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breathing">about 5% carbon dioxide</a>
(CO2). For a 9 liter/minute exhalation we get about 240 m<sup>3</sup>/year CO2,
containing about 500 kg CO2. For about 8 billion world population, that makes annually
about 4 billion tons CO2.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Thus, the annual
volume of CO2 exhaled by the people would be close to the CO2 emitted by the fossil
fuel power plants.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Metabolic
energy burned in the human body <o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The </span><span class="MsoHyperlink">total <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption"><span lang="EN-US">world electricity generation</span></a></span> <span lang="EN-US">in 2018 was 26,700 TWh, of
which about 60% was produced from fossil fuels, providing (1 year = 8760 hours:
26700 x 0.61%/8760 =) 1.8 million MWh.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Average
daily dietary energy consumption per capita </span>is approximately (cca) <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_food_energy_intake"><span lang="EN-US">3000 kilocalories</span></a></span> <span lang="EN-US">(kcal). For 8 billion (8x10<sup>9</sup>)
people we get (3000 x 8 x 10<sup>9</sup> =) 2.4 x 10<sup>13</sup> kcal, which
is (1 kcal is 4184 joul) cca 10<sup>17</sup> joul/day, yielding annually (x
365) cca 3.7 x 10<sup>19</sup> joul/year, providing (1 joul/s = 1 W, 1 year is
31 536 000 seconds) 1.2 million MW. </span>Thus, the annual
energy biologically burned in the people would be close to the electric energy
supplied by the fossil fuel power plants.<b><span lang="EN-US"><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Energy
output of the human body</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Some discrepancies
can be observed in the world database relating to the energy production, but it
seems that the world still-operating coal
power stations <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants">produce 2
million MW</a> (which is not perfectly consistent with the above average electricity
generation of 1.8 MWh obtained differently and from different sources, but is
not far from that).</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It is known
that power consumed in the human body <a href="https://openoregon.pressbooks.pub/bodyphysics/chapter/human-metabolism/">makes
about 85 W</a>. The average human produces <a href="http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/labonta1/#:~:text=Theory,can%20output%20over%202%2C000%20watts">around
100 watts</a> of power at rest, so for all levels of activities it may be up to
(cca 10<sup>10</sup> people x 150 W =) 1.5 million MW.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">This way of
comparison between the humankind bodies and world power plants would also show similar
values.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
conclusion</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Although it
would be interesting to discuss the details of the above calculations,
including for example the efficiencies of the energy conversions in the
industrial processes or in the biological pathways, the bottom line here is the
fact that the total human-breathed carbon dioxide and the energy output are of
the same order as the total carbon dioxide emissions and the power output, respectively,
of all power plants burning the fossil fuels.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It may be
noted that the CO2 breathed out by the humans and animals, having been borrowed
from atmosphere via plants’ photosynthesis, is merely returned to the same atmosphere.
However, the present text aims at emphasizing the relatively low CO2 amounts of
the broadly discussed fossil power plants in comparison to the CO2 breathed out
by human and animals.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">For example,
human-reared cattle exhale 1.5 times more carbon dioxide than humans, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506">based on the total mass</a> of
the species, and for another example, arthropods including termites and ants exhale
16 times more than humans, etc. So that the industrially produced CO2 can be in
fact neglected in comparison with the amounts produced otherwise.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-46064238956405745432021-12-02T11:46:00.004+02:002021-12-28T14:33:52.834+02:00The Colossal Circus in Glasgow COP26 – and How Much Carbon is Exhaled by the Humans<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The term colossal
circus comes to mind for the COP26 conference on climate change in Glasgow. Cataclysmic
climate madness is totally global and, unlike warming, threatens the whole of
Western civilization.</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The British
Prime Minister, until recently a climate skeptic and now a fresh convert to the
green faith under the influence of his young activist wife, warned before the
conference start that human civilization was only a few minutes away from its
fall. Even the age-old British queen called for a quick action "for our
children", and indeed one of her children – Prince Charles – was the focus
of the conference, for example when the first day he degusted an exquisite cognac
in a convivial circle of world leaders. Charles is indeed one of the most
devoted saviors of the planet climate.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Paradoxically,
previous conferences were funded mainly by fossil fuel companies, which COP26
sought to change; however, coal moguls can easily reincarnate into gas moguls
and eventually into wind moguls. COP26 has become the largest such event to
date, with leaders from 120 countries and 50,000 participants from 194 countries;
it was also the first conference attended by the United States again after the
election defeat of Donald Trump, the last climate-skeptic among Western
leaders. The TV footage showed cheering politicians clinking glasses and patting
each other on the back, but the backstage activities allegedly addressed the
fateful problems of the world on the brink of the abyss. It is said that every
fraction of a centigrade above the intended temperature will lead to great loss
of life.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">The
COP26 conference reaffirmed the importance of all genders in stabilizing the
earth's temperature</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">We learn
from the conference documents that the tireless negotiations of dedicated
politicians between October 31 and November 13 "saved the dream of keeping
the average temperature on our planet within 1.5°C from the temperature at the
beginning of modern industrial era" (set in 1880 by the UN). Conference president
</span><a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop26-keeps-1-5c-alive-and-finalises-paris-agreement/"><span lang="EN-US">Alok Sharma further said</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> with tears in his eyes that
"the dream has survived, but its pulse is weak and will only remain alive
if we keep our promises and turn our commitments into quick action". In my
opinion, however, it is to be hoped that the dream will die, because those quick
actions would lead to a weakening of the West in favor of totalitarian despots.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The </span><a href="https://ukcop26.org/"><span lang="EN-US">conference
further reaffirmed</span></a><span lang="EN-US">
"the importance of the rights of indigenous peoples, migrants, women and
other genders in achieving climate goals". The planned sum of $ 100
billion for developing countries and endangered island states has not yet been fully
collected, but hopefully it soon will, so that exotic dictators will manage
even fatter accounts. The conference called for greater support for
"indigenous people", even though they are known to be the biggest
contributors to burning forests and wiping out rare species.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Coal and
cars are villains – but banning them will not reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by more than 10% and 4%, respectively</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">In the end,
190 countries decided to limit coal (phase-down) in power plants, but only 65
countries agreed to eliminate it completely (phase-out). However, even if
everyone stopped using coal altogether, the greenhouse gas (GHG) production
would not fall by more than 10%, and even less, as natural </span><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/super-potent-methane-in-atmosphere-oil-gas-drilling-ice-cores"><span lang="EN-US">gas is not a much
"cleaner"</span></a><span lang="EN-US">
source than coal. Most countries have promised carbon neutrality in the middle
of the century, but to the disappointment of green enthusiasts, China promised
neutrality only after 2060 and India after 2070. It was also decided that COP27
would take place in Egypt and COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, although the
rights of women and other genders in these countries are nonexistent.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">According
to conference documents, road transport produces 10% of GHG worldwide, and it
is therefore necessary to speed up its electrification; however, even a
complete replacement of internal combustion engines with electric ones </span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920920307215"><span lang="EN-US">would reduce the production</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> of car GHGs by less than 40%; thus
the replacement would reduce overall GHGs by merely 4%, despite all terrible sacrifices.
Furthermore, 100 countries decided to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030; however,
anthropogenic emissions represent, according to official estimates, barely half
of all methane emissions, and methane emissions account for less than 20% of
greenhouse gases, so even if all countries reduced emissions by 30%, this would
provide an overall reduction of less than 3%. In fact, methane is emitted far
more in nature than the UN admits: even plants have been found to produce
methane, and termites, for example, produce as much methane as cows. The COP26
documents also point to an alleged critical increase in the number and
intensity of extreme weather events; this, however, conflicts </span><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml"><span lang="EN-US">available meteorological statistics</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> for the last 150 years.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Climate
control is a global problem, more dangerous than global warming</b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="text-align: justify;">So, nearly all
of 200 countries of the world participate in the “rescue operations”, by either
pretending a fight against the temperature or by asking for a financial
contribution. There is nowhere to escape on this planet, reminding the old
story about Mr. Goldstein who wants to emigrate from Eastern Europe but is not
sure where; when given a globe, he turns it hesitantly, and finally asks,
"Don’t you have another globe?" Yes, the world is globalized across
the globe. While politicians from all countries have joined forces to fight the
temperature, the "people in the streets</span><span style="text-align: justify;">"</span><span style="text-align: justify;"> are calling for even greater
cooling. Greta, whose family cleverly created the image of a mentally
handicapped but messianic girl, is now adult and without braids, and her
message uses adult words, </span><span style="text-align: justify;">calling the
world leaders to “shove their climate crisis up their arse". She calls out
to the mob: "What do we want?", and the crowd chants back "climate
justice!".</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The media, social
scientists, and artists support the just fight for climate. The attitude of the
media, politicians, and "people in the street” is clear, but the silence
of natural scientists is striking. They are not visible in the conference or
television discussions. Tens of thousands of scientists and technicians have
signed petitions against overestimating human influence on warming and against
suppressing free debate, but the media do not give them space. Many scientists
oppose the catastrophic scenarios of the UN, including the greatest climate
experts like the American physicist Richard Lindzen and the Israeli physicist
Nir Shaviv. However, according to the media, there is a consensus among
scientists; while the idea of man-made global warming has reportedly been
supported by 97% of scientists over the last 15 years, now it is </span><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966#erlac2966s6"><span lang="EN-US">said to be as high as 99.9%</span></a><span lang="EN-US">. Unfortunately, scientists today
risk losing their livelihoods and even persecution for their scientific views,
much like the scientists of the late 16th century, and therefore they keep a
low profile.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">And what
can we, "simple citizens", do to protect our future from opportunists
pretending to believe in green delusions (like Boris Johnson), from exotic
activists (like Greta), and from dictators (like president Xi)? We must not
just wait for this madness to pass away, because the rule of charlatans, and the
mass investments in windmills and other nonsense will deprive us of living
standards and freedom. At the very least, we should gather and share arguments
against the UN climate hypotheses. After all, everyone can find on the Internet
(yet) that ocean </span><a href="https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/13/how-long-have-sea-levels-been-rising-how-does-recent-sea-level-rise-compare-to-that-over-the-previous/"><span lang="EN-US">levels are rising more slowly</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> today than in the past 20,000
years, that polar bears are not declining, that natural disasters have not
increased over the last 150 years, that the area of the Maldives has not
diminished in recent years, that a one-degree increase in temperature cannot
cause fires, that crickets grown instead of beef for protein consumption would
emit as much methane as cows, that deserts are not spreading, and that warming
will lead to richer rains.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Mankind
exhales the same amount of carbon dioxide per year as all fossil fuel power
plants<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Take, for
example, the allegedly dangerous carbon dioxide. Anyone can find that this
material makes up 5% of the gas we exhale. Every elementary school graduate can
calculate that humanity will annually exhale as much carbon dioxide as all
fossil fuel power plants in the world. <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2021/12/how-much-carbon-dioxide-does-humankind.html">For this calculation</a>, she/he can use
either the above amount of exhaled dioxide, or the amount of human daily energy
consumption (2000 Kcal per day), or the output of one human body (about 100 W,
for 10 billion people it is a million MW, which is roughly equal to the
production of all </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption"><span lang="EN-US">power plants on fossil</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> fuels). So even an immediate
shutdown of all fossil fuel power plants in the world would not reduce the
amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide by more than we exhale; the effect would
be 3 times smaller if we stopped only coal-burning power plants and 15 times
smaller if only Europe did so.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">In
addition, human-reared cattle can be found to exhale 1.5 times more carbon
dioxide than humans. We could also consider breathing of </span><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506"><span lang="EN-US">other creatures on Earth;</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> for example, arthropods (including
termites and ants) have a mass even 16 times larger than humans). So, if we
stop all the power plants, transport and production, most people will become
extinct, but it will hardly affect the earth's carbon dioxide output, and we
have not even considered the enormous production of greenhouse gases by
submarine volcanoes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Yes,
Western civilization really doesn't have much time left until its fall. But
it's not because of warming, as Boris Johnson lies but because of people like
him. We should start defending ourselves against our politicians and use all
the means still available to us to replace opportunistic or simpleton politicians
to survive this difficult period of green and politically correct madness with
the least possible scars.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-4128812142499955022021-10-07T23:27:00.000+03:002021-10-07T23:27:06.271+03:00Is There Any Chinese Offence the West Will not Put up with?<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">In December
2018, US authorities asked Canada to detain Meng Wanzhou, CFO of China's
Huawei; in the United States, she has been accused of misleading the courts,
fraud, and violations of U.S. sanctions laws against Iran. The subsequent
imprisonment of two Canadian citizens in China, Michael Spavor and Michael
Kovrig, and their charges of espionage were widely seen as Chinese revenge on Canada. After nearly three years, Meng was released from house arrest on
September 24</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="text-align: justify;">following an agreement between her lawyers and the U.S. Attorney
General. Both Canadians were released immediately afterwards, although China
denied any connection between the two cases. Oppositely flying planes, carrying
home the Chinese businesswoman and both Canadian citizens, took off almost
simultaneously. The arbitrary detention of two Western citizens in the
Communist China has surprisingly escaped the attention of otherwise sensationalist
Western media, as well as Western politicians who usually like to struggle for
human rights.</div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The two
Michaels were spending 1,020 days in a Chinese prison with light bulbs lit 24
hours a day, while Meng was spending house arrest at her $ 14 million Vancouver
mansion. In March of this year, a trial against the Canadians began in China;
Spavor was sentenced to 11 years in prison for espionage in August, and Kovrig
had not yet been convicted. Fortunately, both Michaels are back in Canada
today. In exchange for her release, Meng had to admit that she had lied and
committed most of what she was accused of, even though it was not a formal
confession. The charges against her should be formally dropped next year, but
her statement will be used in ongoing proceedings against Huawei, which faces
charges of conspiracy, theft, and racketeering in the United States.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">China
has seized not only Western hostages, but also the sympathies of the elites</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Huawei
Technologies is one of the world's largest electronics producers, and given its
ties to the Chinese Communist Party, it surely poses a security risk to the
entire West. Among other things, Meng, the daughter of the founder and CEO of
Zhen Cheng Fei, lied to the US authorities that Skycom, operating in Iran, is
not a subsidiary of Huawei. Both Chinese companies were further accused of bank
fraud. Communists are sometimes like children in their lying: Huawei is said to
be unrelated to the Chinese Communist Party, but after the detention of a
company director in Canada, not only did Chinese Communists arbitrarily detain
two Canadian citizens, but China even imposed sanctions on some Canadian
agricultural products.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">As the
Canadian </span><a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-glavin-only-chinese-strongman-xi-jinping-knows-why-the-michaels-were-released"><i><span lang="EN-US">National Post</span></i><span lang="EN-US"> wrote</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, "Canadians must feel disgusted, embarrassed,
ashamed and angry about this dubious matter." Those disgusted are probably
voters of the Conservative Party, which won only 35 percent of the vote in the
recent election, so that progressivist Justin Trudeau can continue as prime
minister. Although Trudeau personally welcomed the returned prisoners at the
airport, using the situation for his PR after the tightly won elections, he had
done close to nothing for them during their imprisonment, while even fawning to
China by offering to them joint military exercises. China enjoys sympathy among
the ruling elites; for example, former Canadian ambassador to China John
McCallum had to be replaced because his sympathies with China seemed to
outweigh his commitments to his own country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Michaels
are just a drop in the ocean of victims of the Chinese Communist Party</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">As for the
Michaels detained in China, the Chinese Communists chose their Western victims
in style. As under Stalin, when most Western victims in the Gulag were
sympathizers with the left, Kovrig and Spavor were no exception. Kovrig is a
Canadian diplomat working for International <i>Crisis Group</i>, a non-profit
peace-promoting organization financed by George Soros, and Spavor is an
entrepreneur working to improve relations with North Korea. Nevertheless, it is
scandalous that the citizens of a Western country could be arbitrarily detained
in China for almost three years without the West reacting, whatever the politic
profile of the victims is.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The world
media ignore this case; two incidentally detained Westerns seem less important
to them than weather fluctuations or elections here and there. And why would
the media cover the three-year detention of any two people, when they have not covered
the three-year detention of two million people in Chinese internment camps – alleged
enemies of the Communist Party among ethnic Uyghurs? Not only millions of
arbitrarily interned Chinese citizens, but even five million people who have died
with Covid and 200 million infected around the world do not arouse any negative
feelings among the Western media and politicians towards the Chinese Communist
Party, which have been lying about the pandemic from the beginning.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US">The West
has nearly lost its freedom</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Many in the
West were fooled by the introduction of capitalist reforms in China, and even
more people were drunk by cheap services and goods from China. Whatever the
current tactics and techniques of the Chinese Communist Party are, their
strategy has not changed, as being corroborated not only by escaped details of
their secret plans, but also by their open statements. Their ultimate target is
to dominate the West economically and militarily, and it is served by the new
islands built in the South China Sea, the expansion into nearly all developing
countries, the theft of Western technologies – and also by their goods, which
we consume more and more every day.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Today's
Chinese leadership integrates various Western trade and market techniques into their
policies, but they do not abandon Mao Zedong's teachings. An important
principle in said teachings is readiness to sacrifice millions of people in
possible conflicts. To that old principle of the previous century, China has added
a newer one in the Xi Jinping era, translatable as "the West has no balls
to stand up to us." Indeed, the West seems to have no longer enough
citizens willing to fight for their freedom, and still more Westerners are even
willing to exchange their freedom for cheap Chinese goods. So that China is not
afraid of war, but it will even not need it to conquer the world.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Very unfortunately,
the answer to the question in the title is short: no, there is none.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-22353425336258178202021-08-21T20:19:00.009+03:002021-08-31T02:47:22.883+03:00The White Man's Burden in Kabul<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Again we can
see the familiar images: a sudden departure of the last Americans and panicked
attempts of their helpers to flee. In Vietnam it was a conflict with communism,
in Afghanistan it is a conflict with Islam. The failure in Vietnam was mainly
due to the left, which sided with the enemies of the West, and the failure in
Afghanistan has mainly been due to weak support from the Afghans. The main
burden in the fight against the mortal enemies of the democratic West has
always been borne by the United</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="text-align: justify;">States, and whatever the reasons for these
clashes, it was not about imperial interests of the United States, but about defending
the Western way of life. Marxist critics should be explained that Vietnam and
Afghanistan were not providers of oil or other raw materials.</div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>Conquest of
Iraq</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Following
the successful attack on New York by Islamists in 2001, a sufficiently large
target had to be set to avenge the disaster and prevent it from recurring. Of
the 19 direct participants in the attack, 15 were from Saudi Arabia and their
commander was an Egyptian. It was clear that the Saudi government was in panic
after the attack and would consider it natural for the United States to occupy
Saudi Arabia. However, conventional politicians were not courageous enough to
do such a thing; they defined Saudi Arabia and Egypt as their traditional
allies, and turned the US anger only against Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda
operated, and against Iraq, which had not taken part in the attack but had been
provoking America and the entire West for years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It should
be recalled that the failure of the US secret services in 2001 was caused by
Bill Clinton and Al Gore, whose deleterious restructuring had crippled the
services during their 1993-2001 terms. These politicians, whose hobbies rather included
young women and global warming than Islamic terrorism, undermined America's
counter-terrorism defenses. For example, the CIA ignored warning messages about
young Arabs taking flying courses, focusing only on takeoff but not practicing
landing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Three weeks
were enough in 2003 for the United States to conquer Baghdad and end the
24-year rule of dictator Saddam Hussein, although it took another five years to
stabilize the situation in a country plagued by terror supported by neighboring
states. Under the leadership of US General David Petraeus, there was a relative
normalization of life for the people of Iraq, although the price was the
presence of 150,000 soldiers and the death of 4,500 of them, as well as
spending in the order of $ 2 trillion. After decades, the Iraqi citizens could
see the despotism of their rulers be restricted, while the living standard was
rising, and attempts to establish democratic elections were undertaken.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Following
the inauguration of President Barack Hussein Obama in 2011, US forces withdrew
from Iraq and the most radical Islamic movement in history – Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria (ISIS) – took control of much of Iraq. ISIS was eventually defeated,
but Iraq became once again one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Has
anything been left in Iraq of the US reforms?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>Conquest of
Afghanistan</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Even before
the war in Iraq, the United States launched an attack on the Islamic Taliban
movement, which had controlled 90% of Afghan territory. Two weeks were enough
for the United States in October 2001 to oust the Taliban from almost all
positions in Afghanistan. The invasion was preceded by a civil war in which the
Pakistani-created Taliban fought Afghan ethnic leaders united in the so-called
Northern Alliance. The most prominent figure in the Alliance was former
Secretary of Defense Ahmad Massoud; he had warned the West of possible terror attacks
in New York, and he himself had been assassinated by Arab bombers two days
before the September attack on the New York World Trade Centre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the
civil war, members of Al Qaeda and tens of thousands of Pakistanis fought on
the Taliban side. Thousands of civilians were massacred by the Taliban. For
example, in Bamian province, Taliban fighters not only destroyed the famous
Buddha statues, but also killed hundreds of women and children there; The 53-meter-high
Buddha statue was blown up half a year before Al Qaeda's attack on New York.
Most of the Taliban's income came from Pakistan or from the opium trade. The
Bill Clinton administration was unable to take a reasonable position with the
Taliban or Pakistan, and in 1997 it even tried to persuade Ahmad Massoud to
surrender to the Taliban that had taken Kabul in 1996. This policy did not
change until Republican President Bush took office; he had decided, even before
the September attack, to act against the Taliban. However, the US relationship
with Pakistan remained incomprehensibly conciliatory; when bin Laden was
captured in 2011, his headquarters turned out to be just a few meters from a Pakistani
military base.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After the
arrival of the Americans and their allies in 2001, the situation in Afghanistan
stabilized. In particular, the lives of Afghan women and girls, who have been
given more education, have reportedly improved. According to the US Department
of Defense, the actions between 2001 and 2019 cost around 800 billion dollars; together
with spending on civilian projects and associated actions, the total costs make
today about 1,000 billion. Other countries also took part, most notably Britain
and Germany with $ 30 billion and $ 19 billion, respectively. The U.S. losses in
Afghanistan included 2,500 killed and 20,000 wounded. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, as
the number of US troops decreased from 100,000 to 10,000 between 2012 and 2016,
Taliban activity in the provinces grew, and the Afghan army was unable to face it
despite the enormous costs. Building Afghan security forces cost America $ 88
billion, but according to various estimates, half of that amount has been stolen
by Afghan fraudsters at all levels of their government. After the withdrawal of
the Americans, it turned out that the Afghan army was a mere mirage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Life in
traditional Islamic culture is hard to bear for large segments of society. This
applies especially to women who have no rights at all. Pakistani women's rights
activist Malala Yousafzai, who was shot in the head by a Taliban activist in
2012 when she was 15, could talk about it; she survived, but today she can continue
her fight only in the West. How terrible the traditional life of the people of
Afghanistan was, one can vividly understood from the books of Khaled Hosseini.
The Taliban, that has now re-entered Kabul on August 15, will hardly make life
easier for people. We now could see a CNN reporter – an American woman being modestly
wrapped in traditional Islamic attire – timidly talk to a bearded Taliban
fighter. What will be left in Afghanistan of the American-inspired changes?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>Kipling’s "Burden
of the White Man" </b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There may
be differing views on whether the West should militarily engage in developing
countries. Rudyard Kipling, born in India, supported British domination of the
colonies, believing that the developed Western country would contribute to the
development of backward nations. When the United States was making up its mind in
1899 whether to take control of the Philippines after defeating Spain, Kipling
published the poem "The White Man's Burden," in which he described
the colonization efforts as a sacrifice by Western countries to their less
developed neighbors (</span><a href="http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_burden.htm"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Kipling's
idea is completely politically incorrect today. The colonization effort is
presented in the poem as a legitimate but almost hopeless struggle of Western
civilization with the chaos of savages, and Senator Benjamin Tillman in
February 1899 even read the poem in the US Senate as an argument against the
annexation of the Philippines. Tillman also said: “Those peoples are not suited
to our institutions. They are not ready for liberty as we understand it. They
do not want it.”</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The poem might
be perceived more metaphorically today. A "white man" might be a
citizen of any developed country, and a “wild heathen" or a "savage"
might be a citizen of any developing country, regardless of skin color or
religion. Kipling's reference to non-European nations may seem contemptuous or
overly paternalistic today, but his words still make sense. See the first three
stanzas:<o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Take up the White Man's burden—</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"> Send forth the best ye breed—</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Go bind your sons to exile</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"> To serve your captives' need;</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">To wait in heavy harness</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"> On fluttered folk and wild—</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Your new-caught, sullen peoples,</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"> Half devil and half child.</span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Take up the White Man's burden—<br /> In patience to abide,<br />To veil the threat of terror<br /> And check the show of pride;<br />By open speech and simple,<br /> An hundred times made plain.<br />To seek another's profit,<br /> And work another's gain.<br /><br />Take up the White Man's burden—<br /> The savage wars of peace—<br />Fill full the mouth of Famine<br /> And bid the sickness cease;<br />And when your goal is nearest<br /> The end for others sought,<br />Watch Sloth and heathen Folly<br /> Bring all your hopes to nought.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><span style="text-align: justify;">Are the
pirates-like warriors, carelessly massacring their citizens and childishly lying
about everything, not half devils and half children? Didn't Western people die in those cruel wars not only to defend their own countries, but to improve the
life in developing countries? Kipling also foresaw that all efforts could
easily be wasted due to the laziness and stupidity of the savage leaders. One
cannot help thinking of Kipling when seeing a bunch of gunmen entering, without
a single shot, the capital of a 40 million state whose 300,000 army was trained
at a huge cost and a loss of western lives.</span></div><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But perhaps
those thousands of American lives and thousands of billions of US dollars were
not completely useless sacrifices; they may have left some seeds for future
changes. The burden that the United States and its allies have taken up will
hopefully inspire at least some of those people to pursue a less violent kind
of government.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>The
question is whether savages can mature into adulthood without Western help</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Kipling does
not use the word “man” to emphasize gender, but to contrast the relative
maturity of the West with the childhood of the developing countries. But no
explanation can save this poem from erasure. Not only does the poem mention a
bad color and mention only one of many sexes, but it expresses pride in the
achievements of the West, for which, according to today's political
correctness, we should be only ashamed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Many Afghan
men might agree that Kipling is contemptuous, but how many Afghan women would
agree with Senator Tillman that they are not yet ready for European freedom and
European rights? Today, however, the West can hardly help underage nations.
Today's white men are not even able to defend themselves against the humanities
elites at home, let alone provide humanitarian aid to women and children in
foreign countries.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-46965869791144345932021-02-26T05:09:00.006+02:002021-04-01T19:34:29.590+03:00Distinguishing Four Waves in the Covid-19 Pandemic Spread During the Last Year – Examining the Effects of Vaccination on the Last Wave<p style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Corona
waves</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The graphs showing
new daily corona cases and new daily deaths exhibit distinct and separate peaks in all countries over the last year of the pandemic, corresponding to
several waves of Covid-19 infection (see </span><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/"><span lang="EN-US">Worldometers</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">under individual countries). In many
countries, the 1st wave occurred around April, the 2nd around August, the 3rd around November 2020, and the 4th around January 2021 (see </span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page_26.html"><span lang="EN-US">Table 1</span></a><span lang="EN-US">).</span></div><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span><a name='more'></a></span> <o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The 2nd wave mostly exhibited very low values of infected and dead. Some countries
rather differed in some of the dates; for example, Israel had the 3rd wave in September to October, Belgium had the 4th wave in November,
etc. The last, 4th wave now mostly continues to descend toward quite low values,
and possibly toward the epidemic break; in some countries, including France, Italy, Czechia, and
Belgium, the 4th wave is tailing, and the values continue to keep quite high.
Most victims belong to the 3rd wave, many also to the 4th one (in some countries closely overlapping with the 3rd one, e.g.,
in Sweden), and in some countries to the 1st one (e.g., Belgium,
Sweden). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The waves
sometimes overlap and are difficult to distinguish. A long tail may indicate
another wave; for example, the tail after the 4th wave in Czechia
may indicate a 5th wave. Some
countries differ; for example, Brazil seems to show two broad peaks, and India
has one broad peak covering the period from April 2020 to February 2021. China,
that has obviously never reported real data, shows only one small peak placed
in February 2020. Of course, t</span>he shapes of the waves reflect the officially reported values and need not exactly show the real spread. However, the four-peaks pattern can be seen even on the whole world summary values. </p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Reviewing
the pandemic results</span></u></div>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page_26.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 1</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> shows deaths per million people, ranging from
the highest values of nearly 2000 (BE, CZ, GB), down to a half (DE) or a third
(IL) in the European domain. The Far East countries, including, e.g., JP, KR,
TW or AU, show much lower values (60, 31, 40 or 35, respectively) probably
because of their geographic isolation and early closure. The values from
non-democratic countries are not reliable; the mean world value is 321 deaths
per million, which says nothing about the real situation; China, the country of
the virus origin, reports 3 dead per million. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The most
important parameter is of course the fraction of the infected population.
Curiously, none of 200 countries of the world, and the WHO neither, cared
to regularly obtain this value. Several isolated attempts to serologically
estimate this value occurred mainly during the early stage of the pandemic. From
the beginning it seemed very probable that the total number of people who had
been infected was somewhere between 5 times to 100 times higher than the number
of positively reported cases, often about 10 times (</span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/12/explaining-one-year-with-covid-19-and.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). As for now, the most probable factor to
multiply the reported cases to obtain the infected fraction is between 6 and 10.
</span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page_26.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 1</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> shows rough estimation of the infected
population fractions in several countries for the factor equaling 8. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It seems probable
that between ¼ and ¾ of the population have already been infected by Cocid-19
in various developed countries, except for the mentioned isolated Far East
countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Differences
among the countries<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Strict
measures have been applied in nearly all countries that are included in Table
1, and it is difficult to explain the difference between Germany and neighboring
Czechia. The fact is that the measures have been most liberal in Sweden, and
the death per million in Sweden is lower than in seven of ten Western countries
in the table. Among the factors affecting the differences are the ways of
registering and reporting the deceased and diseased, protection of the
endangered groups, namely senior citizens, and of course the general behavior
habits resulting from the local culture. Different viral strains or mutants might
have some effects too; similar timing of the waves in different countries
suggests that the latter factor might be involved. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Some
differences can be explained by the population age distribution. More than 90%
deaths belong to the age group of 65+; Sweden has 20% population in this group,
while Israel only 10%, so that Israel would be expected to have only half of
the Swedish mortality, which is exactly what Table 1 demonstrates (614/1262 =
0.49). Of course, the politicians like to ascribe the lower values to their
wisdom. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Covid-19
decline and vaccination <o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">By 23 February
2021, the share of people who received at least one dose of a vaccine is 52% in
Israel, 27% in the UK, 13% in the US, and 4% in Germany, Spain, Italy, and
France (</span><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). In most countries, the values of new corona
cases and new deaths now decline. The question is what the relation of the
decline and the vaccination is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The numbers
of new cases and new deaths started to decrease in most countries between the
end of December 2020 and the end of January, as the dates of the 4th peak maxima show in Table 1. The vaccination against Covid-19 started in many
countries toward the end of 2020. Thus, the two events touch in time but do not
overlap. </span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-2-corona-wave-of-january-2021-and.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 2</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> shows ten first countries of Table 1 with their
4th peak maximum date, and with their population fraction being
vaccinated by at least one dose till said date. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The graph
of daily new cases in Israel shows a decreasing trend from around January 20,
when 1/3 of the population has been vaccinated by the first dose of the Pfizer
vaccine, and the graph of daily new deaths shows a decreasing trend from around
January 27, when ½ of the population has been vaccinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Most</span> people received only the first dose of
two doses separated by 3 weeks. The first dose confers 50% to 80% protection,
but only several weeks after delivery, and most of the vaccinated people had
got the dose very closely to the peak maximum date. In any case, the effects of
the vaccination on the 4th peak decreasing trend would naturally be
assumed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To evaluate
how prominent the decreasing trend the last peak exhibits in the countries, the
percent decrease of the new cases and the new deaths by February 16, relatively
to the date of the peak maximum, was calculated (if the peak maximum has 200
new daily cases, and Feb 16 has 50 new cases, the % decrease is 150/200=75% decrease).
The decrease is between about 50 and 80%, except for Czechia and France where,
moreover, the values stagnate (see also </span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page_26.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 1</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, the column “4th peak ending”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It might be
expected that high infected population fraction will result in the epidemic
ending (collective or herd immunity), and indeed, the estimated % of the
infected population well correlates with the case and death % decrease (see the
last two columns of </span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-2-corona-wave-of-january-2021-and.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 2</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). In case of Germany, Czechia and France, the
correlation is weak. As for Czechia, it seems that the population is thoroughly
infected (more than 30% tests are positive), so that no measures have any
effects, and the virus will end its work in the whole susceptible population; the epidemics may hopefully be over quite soon, after infecting the
last remaining susceptible victims; if that is true, no vaccination would be
needed there. France, still having many uninfected susceptible people (if the
estimation is correct), might expect a fight like that in Czechia, but the
vaccination may help in finishing the matter more peacefully. Germany may have
managed to keep a larger part of the population uninfected (if the estimation
is correct), but surely the country would have to fight some more waves in the
future, if not being helped by the vaccination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Reviewing
the vaccination timetable clearly shows
that the fractions of the population who had been vaccinated were too low to
explain the decreasing trends of the case and death numbers </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: left;">–</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span>in all countries except for Israel<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> (see </span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-2-corona-wave-of-january-2021-and.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 2</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). This holds for the whole
world (see </span><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page_26.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Table 1</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). For example, India exhibits clear decline in
the numbers of new cases and deaths, while only 0.8% population has got the
first vaccine dose and 0.1% the second dose by February 23 (</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_India"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Conclusion<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The total
world values for new daily Covid-19 cases and new daily deaths show decline.
The last Covid-19 wave exhibits a clear decrease toward minimal new cases and deaths values for
example in Switzerland, Spain, and Germany. The new deaths go to zero in Sweden. Also, populated countries like
Brazil and importantly India, show a clear decline of the values. The trend
started incidentally at the same time as the current vaccination efforts
started, but before any substantial part of the population was vaccinated. The
only exception is Israel, where a third or a half of the population got the
first vaccine dose (a small part of the population got the second dose) when the decline started to be
perceptible, so that the vaccination might or might not affect the decline
there. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It is not
clear whether another Covid-19 wave would come without the vaccination or not.
In some countries, like Czechia, the epidemic would probably end even without
vaccination, due to a large segment of the infected population; the epidemic
might continue till attaining herd immunity in many other countries, such as France
and even Germany; in East Asian countries and Australia, the epidemic would
hardly stop without continuing hermetic closure or without the vaccination.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Anyway, the
world decline of the new Covid-19 cases and deaths that started in January was interestingly
not a result of the vaccination.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-21657098783321495932021-02-17T17:57:00.002+02:002021-02-17T17:57:36.001+02:00Our Chinese Syndrome and Our Chinese Future – It Is Better Not to Be Born or Reincarnated into the World Led by the Communist China<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">There is
hardly another example in history of so rapid rise of power as China has shown
in the last thirty years; its share of world gross product has increased
fifteenfold and is now 19%, putting China second only to the United States.
China has gained control of raw materials in many Third World countries. Even
in the Asian part of Russia, Chinese entrepreneurs have a free hand in the use
of raw materials, and the Chinese will one day easily become the majority there. But even in the United States,</div><span lang="EN-US"><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">the Chinese are gaining a dangerous influence;
for example, at the University of Berkeley, the Chinese make up the largest
ethnic group, about 25% of all students. Increasingly, Chinese researchers in
the United States are being convicted of collaborating with the Chinese
Communist Party and its military, stealing documents, and spying (</span><a href="https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2020/05/21/chinese-espionage/"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/american-universities-are-soft-target-china-s-spies-say-u-n1104291"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">, </span><a href="https://waltz.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=355"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">).</span></div></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">China has
not yet fulfilled its promises to stop the forced transfer of technologies and to
open its markets to foreign investors, but the European Union hopes that China
will change its behavior after signing the new trade agreement. However, the
conciliatory wording of the agreement suggests that Europe will give way to
China also in the future; for example, the EU’s document “Key Elements of the
Agreement” says "China has agreed not to impose new restrictions" (</span><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2542"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The Stockholm
syndrome is an emotional attachment of a terrorized person to a terrorist.
Similarly, the growing dependence of the retreating West on the advancing China
can be called Chinese syndrome. Although China has forced Western companies
working in China to hand over their technologies to the communist government,
the West has been moving more and more production to China. Although China has
been detaining two innocent Canadian citizens for two years, the Canadian
government has been until recently performing joint military exercises with
China (</span><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7517899/china-canada-military-training/"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). Although China has consistently voted
against Israel at the United Nations, Israel has been seeking Chinese favor for
years, and now has even let its strategic Haifa port run by a Chinese company,
despite the fact that the port has used to be visited by the US Sixth Fleet (</span><a href="https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-haifa-bay-port-construction-continues-despite-us-pressure-1001289950"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). Countless other examples of the Western
softness and appeasement can be given. The West is childishly happy about
buying a cheap pony and does not understand that they have bought a Trojan horse.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The
pandemic year 2020 was in the sign of the rat in the Chinese zodiac, which is
quite apt for the Western perception of the rat as a source of plague and typhus,
but not many have noticed as the anti-Chinese criticism is nowadays very
cautious. Profiting and profiteering traders, together with superficial
politicians, have worked for years to improve the image of the Communist China
in the West, so that it is often seen as a modern, almost capitalist and
democratic state. A closer look does not support this picture, showing concentration
camps for millions of people (</span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-a-million-people-are-jailed-at-china-s-gulags-i-escaped-here-s-what-goes-on-inside-1.7994216"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">), hundreds of thousands of prisoners
dismantled for transplants in the last twenty years (</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">), and military threats against neighboring
states, including the construction of artificial islands in the middle of the South
China Sea.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">Reports
pointing to Chinese guilt for the worldwide spread of covid-19 are often
ignored or questioned as part of "conspiracy theories." However, the
following facts cannot be questioned: Wuhan satellite images suggest that the
epidemic broke out there in the summer of 2019 (</span><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">), but it was not until 31 December 2019 that
China informed the World Health Organization (WHO) of "pneumonia of
unknown origin" in Wuhan (</span><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). Surprisingly, on January 7, Chinese
researchers sent a detailed description of the pathogen, including the sequence
of its genome, to the journal Nature (</span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). Although the first WHO situation report on
covid-19 in January lists the giant cities of Beijing and Shanghai among the
affected areas, later Chinese reports were limited mainly to Wuhan, and China
decided to admit only 62 infected per million inhabitants and 3 deaths per
million inhabitants. Curiously, no one doubts the low values in the country
of Covid-19 origin, although the numbers of sick and dead are 500 times higher in
Western countries (</span><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?"><span lang="EN-US">here</span></a><span lang="EN-US">). Everything from China is received with kind
understanding, whether it is toxic goods or false data.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The desire
for cheap goods blinds many Western traders and politicians. Nobody wants to go
into "unnecessary conflicts" with a strong rival, not for unfair
business practices, not even for honor or principles, and still less for
distant suffering peoples. It is hoped that the wealth will blunt the Chinese
ferocity and expansiveness. But China has already advanced to the second place
among the nations and it is not more peaceful. Should we try to let China
become the first in wealth and strength? But if that does not work, we will
have to get used to a whole different world.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">What future
awaits us if China takes the baton of a world leader from the United States? We
can be guided by the position of Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The West had no
control over Tibet, and so Tibet was finally pacified; Hong Kong has been allowed
autonomy for a few decades, but it is coming near to a sad end; besieged Taiwan
is armed to the teeth and ready to defend itself. The West must choose one of
the three models.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The Dalai
Lama sought a compromise with the Chinese Communist Party but failed. His
situation is hopeless, and he has already admitted that when he dies, his soul
will not reincarnate into another Dalai Lama, as has happened so far, and
Tibetan Buddhists will not acquire the 15th Dalai Lama, because the Chinese communists
have made it clear they will decide into whom the Dalai Lama’s soul will reincarnate.
Buddhism is not an aggressive religion, so the Beijing's strong stance on
Lamaism in Tibet, as well as on the Falun Gong Buddhist movement in China,
shows that there may be no place for any religion in the New Chinese World.
Certainly, many liberals would put up with that, but even the freedom of
enterprise is not ensured in today's China, as can be seen in the disappeared
businessmen who ignored the party line.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">And what
about respect for the rights of the individual or the rights of minorities?
What about freedom of speech, respect for life, love of neighbor, freedom of
creation, the right to a normal life, etc.? Certainly, such things can exist
when the communist government orders it. When the government ordered, the birth
rate fell, and the wells were filled with dead girls. The birth rate will
increase when the government orders it, and the army ranks will be filled with
fresh soldiers. In the Chinese future, the individual will hardly mean more
than a clay soldier in an immense army defending the interests of the ruler, be
it an emperor or a first secretary.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The world
has begun to get ready for a formidable future over the past year. Almost all
democratic countries have restricted the movement of their citizens, giving
them masks not only as a symbol of Chinese customs or a symbol of shut mouth, but
also as an ideal means of erasing their identities. They all look alike. The normal
expression of emotion has been restricted, people should not shake hands,
should not hug and kiss, should not trust each other and should avoid each
other.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">With a view
to a Chinese future, it is perhaps better not to be born or reincarnated – but
who has inadvertently happened to be here, he should try to fight against such
a future.</span> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-61489687748344554662020-12-06T04:38:00.076+02:002021-01-23T18:06:44.836+02:00Explaining One Year with Sars-Cov-2 and Covid-19 – Deciphering Distorted Data – Providing Actual Infection Rates and Final Deaths – Outlining the Epidemic End – Warning Against the RNA Vaccine<div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>The text responds to the following questions</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">* What part of the population has really been infected by Covid-19?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* How quickly does Covid-19 spread in the population?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* How does the 2nd wave differ from the 1st one?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* How does the age affect the probability of death from Covid-19?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* What is the real lethality of Covid-19?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* What will be the final number of deaths?</div></div><div style="text-align: justify;">* Do the protective measures help?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;">* How do the countries differ from each other?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* Which of 200 countries does handle Covid-19 optimally and
which reasonably?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">* How should the epidemic have been handled?</div></div><div style="text-align: justify;">* When will the epidemic end?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;">* Is the vaccination needed?</div><div style="text-align: justify;">For short responses go to the end of this text.</div><span><a name='more'></a></span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span dir="LTR"></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>General</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><b>The best source of updated data about the Cov-2 pandemic in
all countries is Worldometers</b> (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">here</a></span>),
and some data can be found in the WHO site here (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports">here</a></span>).
I provided <b>a half-year Corona Summary updated till the end of July in <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html"><span style="font-weight: normal;">CorSum</span></a></span></b>, reviewing the known
facts and data about the virus and the disease, about the pandemic origin, its
spreading around the world and handling in various countries. A short extract
of CorSum is <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/08/all-about-covid-19-while-standing-on.html">here</a></span>,
and also at the end of this text.</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The current text includes updates till the end of November
(see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table 5</a></span>),
but importantly it tries to decipher the real state of the current pandemic
from the flood of contradictory information and from the available data
fragments. The newest findings, showing high infected population fractions and good acquired immunity, signalize the oncoming end of the world’s predicament – however, the end might be messed up by the political and healthcare establishment, which is incompetent, corrupt, and motivated to go for broad, even though not duly tested, vaccination. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Assessing the extent of infection</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">The number of reported cases somehow reflects the number of
infected people, but it is not clear how. Unfortunately, most politicians and
other responsible officials do not realize that the number of positively
diagnosed people and the number of infected people are two different things. It would
seem obvious that it is necessary, for planning further actions and for managing
the epidemic, to know what fraction of the population is infected. The infected
population fraction in percent (IPF) may be obtained by testing randomly selected
representative population samples.<b> Unfortunately and incomprehensibly, no
well controlled testing of randomly selected groups of population has so far been
repeatedly performed in any one of 200 countries of the world. <o:p></o:p></b></div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Serologic testing (detecting antibodies against Cov-2 virus
proteins in blood) may reveal the people who have been infected in the past.
However, the serologic testing actions usually included non-representative
samples, they did not employ well defined testing methods, and did not provide
clear results. An example for all: a broad serologic testing in Czechia,
organized by the government, showed 0,4% of positive cases by the end of April,
but a parallel private testing with more sensitive serologic tests showed 5% (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.idnes.cz/technet/veda/jake-jsou-skutecne-vysledky-jihoceskeho-testovani-promorenosti.A200517_211143_veda_mla">here</a></span>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The actually active cases can be revealed by PCR testing
(viral RNA from nasal swab is converted to DNA, which is amplified by the PCR
method and detected) or by quicker but less reliable antibody-based tests (an
antibody against Cov-2 proteins provides a color signal when contacting the
virus or its proteins in nasal swab). The total number of so-far-infected
people from PCR-based or antibody-based tests might be deduced as follows. For
example, Slovakia has recently tested a great part of the population by quick antibody-based
tests (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext">here</a></span>)
and found about 1% population to be positive. No official conclusions have been
outlined, but the following might be hypothesized: a person is infectious 10 days, so the
testing revealed only one 10-days portion, one month contains 3 such portions,
there have been 30 such portions from the beginning of 2020 till the end of
October; in the first January portion, the positive ratio was 0 % and in the
last October portion it was 1%; if simply assuming a linear increase, the mean
ratio during the whole time was 0.5% (exponential increase would provide less
than 0.5% for the mean value), and 30 portions would provide (30 * 0.5% =) 15%
infected in total. This deduction thus provides an estimate of at most 15% IPF
in Slovakia in the end of October, but with many caveats; firstly, if the quick
test has for example 99.5% specificity (i.e., 0.5% results are false positives), then 0.5% of
the positively identified people would in fact be never infected, which means
that one half of said 1% population identified as having been infected would be
identified falsely. The quality of the test kits is critical.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Extrapolations based on growing numbers of positively tested
people may be misleading too, as the number of reported cases increases both
due to the increased number of infected people and due to the increased number
of tests; for example, the increase of cases from 900 to 1800 per million in
Israel between April 7 and May 12 (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span>) need not mean that the number of all infected people doubled,
because the number of performed tests increased four fold in said period.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The above considerations suggest that merely crude
assessments of the infected population fractions can be obtained.</p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>The ratio of infected people to positively tested people
– infected population fraction (IPF %)</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As explained in CorSum, the number of people having been
infected by Cov-2 has been 2 to 100 times higher than the number of reported
positively tested cases; the ratio is called <i>quotient</i> <i>M</i> here (see for example <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table 5</a>)</span>. For example, <i>M</i>
was 100 in India in May (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-icmr-completes-second-sero-survey/article32654776.ece">here</a></span>).
<i>Nature</i> suggested a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections
compared to officially admitted cases in California in April (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0">here</a></span>).
An October review of 17 countries shows a still broader range for <i>M</i> (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20153163v2.full.pdf">here</a></span>).
Various models provided <i>M</i> between 2 and 40 for the U.S. in June to
August, such as 4-20 (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models">here</a>, <a href="https://www.kqed.org/science/1967449/federal-study-shows-testing-is-capturing-only-a-fraction-of-u-s-covid-19-cases">here</a></span>,
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/06/30/nation/actual-number-covid-19-cases-is-12-times-higher-than-reported-with-50-percent-more-deaths-says-mit-study/">here</a>)</span>.
<i>M</i> is often around 10 (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/german-covid-19-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-official-figures">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-07-21/cdc-study-coronavirus-infection-numbers-may-be-up-to-24-times-higher-than-reported">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-cases-in-us-may-be-8-times-higher-than-previously-reported-cdc-warns">here</a></span>).</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">My July Summary (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">CorSum</a></span>)
estimated a probable range of IPF values for the countries of Table 5 as
follows (for comparison, a June estimation of <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632873-000-how-many-of-us-are-likely-to-have-caught-the-coronavirus-so-far/">New
Scientist</a></span> is in parenthesis <span style="color: red;">in red</span>): 3-8%
in Singapore, 15-30% in U.S. (<span style="color: red;">12</span>), 25-50% in
Sweden (<span style="color: red;">7.5</span>), 5-8% in Spain (<span style="color: red;">6</span>), 5-10% in United Kingdom (<span style="color: red;">6</span>),
10-30% in Italy (<span style="color: red;">18</span>), 5-8% in France (<span style="color: red;">18</span>), 5-15% in Germany (<span style="color: red;">6</span>),
6-10% in Israel (<span style="color: red;">2.5</span>), 2-4% in Czechia, 0.5-1%
in Australia, 0.5-2% in Korea, 0.5-3% in Japan (<span style="color: red;">4</span>),
and 0.05-0.2% in China (<span style="color: red;">5</span>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If applying a crude rule that the number of really infected
is ten fold higher than the number of reported cases (<i>quotient M</i> = 10),
a first assessment of the IPF value toward the end of October can be
obtained for the countries of Table 5 as shown in the 2nd column of Table 6
below (the reported cases per million people, blue values in Table 5, are
divided by 10,000 to get the number of positive cases per 100 people, and this
fraction is multiplied by 10).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;">A second assessment for the October IPF value, the 3rd
column of Table 6, is obtained from the lower limit of my July IPF range by
increasing it proportionally to the growth of the reported cases, i.e. the lower
limit is multiplied by the ratio of reported cases for the end of October and
the end of July (the ratio is obtained from Table 5; for Sweden, for example:
1.42 * 25% = 36%). As no July range is available for Switzerland, the second
assessments is replaced by a published May collective immunity value of 9% (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.thelocal.ch/20200511/less-that-10-percent-of-swiss-are-immune-to-covid-19">here</a></span>)
adjusted to the end of October (the ratio of October to May reported cases from
Table 5 is 4.0 for Switzerland). The average IPF value of the two assessments
is in the 4th column. Said assessments try to get hands on the infected
fraction which is so difficult to obtain. For comparison, 5th column shows
estimations of the population fractions exhibiting positive serologic reactions
(reflecting IPF values) as published on October 23 (Rostami et al., <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(20)30651-0/fulltext">here</a></span>).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq-XM2UVqagbPymr4a3S0nvMFZy62egOYOJdjvuzHE5NhAdndzVa6OGkOyUzNlmGRDHDQpl-xkqxsQeDOLOL4by70vH9AlTTGkEp-YmzyeI5N3dcsciIbmQIwpcWm6n73_BXF4-gGyScg/s1650/Tab+6_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq-XM2UVqagbPymr4a3S0nvMFZy62egOYOJdjvuzHE5NhAdndzVa6OGkOyUzNlmGRDHDQpl-xkqxsQeDOLOL4by70vH9AlTTGkEp-YmzyeI5N3dcsciIbmQIwpcWm6n73_BXF4-gGyScg/w640-h494/Tab+6_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The values from the Rostami’s
publication support the values as here deduced, except for East-Asian countries. Generally,
the infection rates for Australia and Eastern Asia are substantially lower than in
other parts of the world. As for China, all values published by the Chinese government, as shown in Table 5, are obviously improbable and totally unreliable, so that also any derived values are unreliable. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>Regarding Europe, Israel and America, between 10% and 40%
of their populations may have been infected by the end of October, and between
15% and 50% by the end of November</b> (see Table 8 below).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Wave progression of Cov-2 in the countries</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">The alternation of stricter and softer measures results in
changes of R<sub>0</sub>, and therefore the time curve of total reported cases
has proceeded in distinct steps, so far mostly in two or three;
correspondingly, the time curve of new daily cases (the derivative of the total
cases curve) shows two, or somewhere three, separate peaks. The numbers of
total deaths and new daily deaths follow the same pattern as the number of
total positive cases and new daily deaths, respectively (see Worldometers <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/">here</a></span>
under individual countries). </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Data describing the waves in 14 countries are presented In
Table 7. From the curves in the Worldometers, I have read the approximate date
when the 2nd wave, or eventually the 3rd wave, started; further, I have read the
number of total cases and the number of total deaths for said date, and also
for November 19 (the last date of this examination); the values for the first
date correspond to the 1st wave; the difference between the values for the
second date and the first date corresponds to the 2nd wave; the difference
between the values for November 19 and the second date corresponds to the 3rd
wave). The total cases and deaths are thus divided to two or three
sub-quantities representing two or three “waves”. For example, by November 19,
the U.S. reported about 12.1 million cases and 260 thousands deaths, of which
2.1 m and 119 k (<i>m</i> stands for million and <i>k</i> for thousand),
respectively, can be ascribed to the first wave; 4.6 m and the 79 k,
respectively, can be ascribed to the second wave (which started approximately
on June 11); and 5.4 m and 60 k, respectively, can be ascribed to the third
wave (which started approximately on September 11); the values have been
recalculated per one million people to be better comparable (i.e. divided by
331 for the U.S.), and rounded (providing 6340, 360, etc., see Table 7). The "ratio%" is the number of dead per 100 cases.</p><div style="text-align: justify;">Comparing the 1st wave with the following waves shows that
the virus continues to spread in all above countries. The same holds for
Australia and Eastern Asia, where they supposedly managed to contain the
disease; it can be predicted that these countries may have delayed the disease,
but they will go through the same course as the Western countries, if they do
not start to vaccinate.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVycM_QQMBGWAgv035aOltitHoRbOKMxUXz9xb35MeP7qomLN1lWsYKB0j_e5sKOAbR-rDo_xH0Vc72fsO_q8Ofuj1h11OvwUSvC1Hjkg1WvuilkGUVGEE2mhTiFfFYD4hd02xnkY0mp0/s1650/Tab+7_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVycM_QQMBGWAgv035aOltitHoRbOKMxUXz9xb35MeP7qomLN1lWsYKB0j_e5sKOAbR-rDo_xH0Vc72fsO_q8Ofuj1h11OvwUSvC1Hjkg1WvuilkGUVGEE2mhTiFfFYD4hd02xnkY0mp0/w640-h494/Tab+7_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">U.S., Europe, and Israel show many-fold increase of the
cases in the succeeding waves compared to the 1st one (for example 3 fold in
Germany and 40 fold in Czechia). Good news is that the mortality in succeeding
waves decreases in most of these countries, and the best news is that <b>the
following waves show much lower apparent lethality</b> (=fatality rate, see
Ratio % in Table 7) than the first wave. It is also probable that the number of
cases was somewhat underestimated in the first wave more than in the succeeding
waves (the ratio of really infected to positively tested, <i>M</i>, decreased
during time, see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models">here</a></span>); the apparent
lethality in the second and third waves is about 1 (see Ratio % in Table 7),
providing real lethality of about 0.1, if taking 10 for <i>M</i>. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The most <b>exceptional among the countries is Sweden, which
shows the sharpest decrease of the deaths in the later waves; this same country
has taken most liberal attitude toward the coronavirus epidemics, being the
only country that has not closed its businesses, schools, and its borders</b>,
and that continued to live quite normally without unscientific measures and
hysteric proclamations. For comparison, marked in the table are results for
Sweden, and for Czech republic which has taken nonsensical measures like most
other countries (both countries have about 10 million population).</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Existence of different virus strains could theoretically also explain the differences in different epidemic waves. Sequencing of the virus genomes from these waves would help. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Covid-19 propagation through the population</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">A simple model of an epidemic spread holds that the speed of
the propagation (i.e., the number of newly infected cases per time unit) is
proportional to the total number <i>N</i> of infected people and to the fraction
of population <i>S </i>still susceptible to being infected:</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">d<i>N</i>/dt = <i>c *
N * S</i><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If N<sub>max</sub> is the maximal number of people that can
be infected in the population in the end (N<sub>max</sub> is maximally the
whole population size, but theoretically can be lower, if some people are
immune or excluded from population mixing), then said fraction <i>S</i> is 1 – <i>N</i>/N<sub>max</sub>
, and <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">d<i>N</i>/dt = <i>c</i>
* <i>N</i> * (1 – <i>N</i>/N<sub>max</sub>)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The constant <i>c</i> is advantageously written as lnR<sub>0</sub>
(natural logarithm of R<sub>0</sub>) wherein R<sub>0</sub> has the meaning of
the basic reproduction number, namely the number of the new infections created
by one infected person during a time unit in the beginning of the epidemics: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">d<i>N</i>/dt = ln R<sub>0</sub>
* <i>N</i> * (1 – <i>N</i>/N<sub>max</sub>)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">R<sub>0</sub> for Covid-19 is usually estimated to range
between 2 and 5 per week. <b>By two independent ways I have estimated the value
of R<sub>0 </sub>at 3.3 per week</b> (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">here</a></span>,
“<i>Person to person spreading rate</i>”). Any infection-preventing measures reduce
the value of R<sub>0</sub>, for example to 1.5.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">As an example, the following curve shows % fraction of the
infected people (100 * <i>N</i>/N<sub>max</sub>) in a population of 8,000,000 susceptible
people in accordance with the above equation, when R<sub>0</sub> is 2; the time
unit is week. The infection propagation curve has the typical sigmoid shape of various
systems comprising growth. The curve will be the same, whether this eight
million “susceptible” people will be a part of a population of eight, ten or one
hundred million people. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"> <u>Fig. 1</u> Covid-19 propagation curve for R<sub>0</sub> =
2 and N<sub>max</sub> 8,000,000. </p><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08LdG_6E1JSo7s_6yJQgmu0Y1wbWetMgsdr9vEZ2B0u2FxR_agLGO30x0dCBaauzgZ7WjC_FXuIRFueWT4VmCpV8B9yMq0RNSkpfvKFWyGfdQRhvjBNb_0Gjq7z0TQIiZRmOzJFgzA0U/s1650/Figure+1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08LdG_6E1JSo7s_6yJQgmu0Y1wbWetMgsdr9vEZ2B0u2FxR_agLGO30x0dCBaauzgZ7WjC_FXuIRFueWT4VmCpV8B9yMq0RNSkpfvKFWyGfdQRhvjBNb_0Gjq7z0TQIiZRmOzJFgzA0U/w640-h494/Figure+1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If the epidemic starts with one infected person, and if each
person infects within a week two other people in an eight million susceptible population
which freely mixes, the curve shows that it takes about 14 weeks before a visible
population fraction, such as 0.5%, becomes infected; this <span style="color: #373cf9;">“covert phase” is shown as a blue arrow</span> in the
following graph. The covert phase for R = 3 would be shorter by 1 month; if the epidemics started not with one ill but with 100 initially infected people, the covert phase would by also shorter by 1 month. It can be seen that the exponential character of the growth
passes to nearly linear one at a population fraction of about 10% and stays
such till a fraction of about 90%, as demonstrated by the <span style="color: red;">red straight line drawn onto the curve </span>(provided with
an arrow).</div></div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>Fig. 2</u> Covid-19 propagation curve of Fig. 1 with
marked “covert phase” (blue) and the “linear phase” (red). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgep_IvNRldrlPEJL-Nfkerony5Bjl2j1g7cy4g3mR2FseExuOFvgkQzWW5CzXZfV4UEGfNB41N9lcOsMWgStP8HQF1_Lz8faiju3ilEc9OPixGgX5J0WSdS5Wbrh2cA-MPeONVmmPkJm4/s1650/Figure+2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgep_IvNRldrlPEJL-Nfkerony5Bjl2j1g7cy4g3mR2FseExuOFvgkQzWW5CzXZfV4UEGfNB41N9lcOsMWgStP8HQF1_Lz8faiju3ilEc9OPixGgX5J0WSdS5Wbrh2cA-MPeONVmmPkJm4/w640-h494/Figure+2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If a country of 10 million inhabitants has 8 million people
who can be infected, an epidemics starting on January 1 would be “perceptible” in
April, if R<sub>0</sub> = 2, and the number of new cases would linearly grow
between June and July, providing (80% * 8 million/6 weeks= 152,380) about 150
thousand new cases every day; which would be 15,000 a day if 1/10 cases are
reported. In September, the epidemics would be ended.</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If the whole population is susceptible to the infection (N<sub>max</sub>
equals the population size), then the infected population fraction has the same
meaning as IPF in Table 6 above; IPF equals 100 * <i>N</i>/N<sub>max</sub>, and
both N<sub>max</sub> and the population size can be excluded:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">dIPF/dt = lnR<sub>0</sub><i>
* </i>IPF <i>* </i>(1 – IPF/100) <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">However, if a part of the population cannot be infected, or
if the epidemic cannot pass through the whole population, for example due
to the existence of a threshold of herd immunity, as discussed below in the
paragraph “Herd immunity”, then the “IPF” may mean the fraction of the
susceptible or infectable population. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Spreading curves for two different values of R<sub>0</sub>
and for three different population sizes are shown in <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/fig1-corona-spread.html">Fig.3</a></span>. It
can be seen that all curves for certain R<sub>0</sub> have the same shape for
all population sizes, and are merely shifted to the right for greater
populations (a 10-fold population increase will shift the curve by 2 weeks to
the right for R<sub>0</sub> = 3, and by 6 weeks for R<sub>0</sub> = 1.5). Further,
it can be seen that the slope of the “linear part” (approximately the slope in
the inflex point) does not depend on the population size (as evidenced by the
above dIPF/dt equation); the slope corresponds to the increase of the infected
fraction from 10% to 90% achieved within about 4 weeks for R<sub>0</sub>= 3,
within 10 weeks for R<sub>0</sub> = 1.5, and within a year for R<sub>0</sub> =
1.1, as read from the curves (being in accordance with the expected values from
the above relation for IPF = 50%, which provides the slope in the inflex point of
25*lnR<sub>0</sub>).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>An interesting and practical finding is that the initial
exponential growth comprises only the first 10% of the involved population, and that it is followed by a nearly linear growth, of which infection speed is 20%
population per week for R<sub>0</sub> = 3, or 8% population per week for R<sub>0</sub>
= 1.5, or 2.5% population per week for R<sub>0</sub> = 1.15. The linear phase continues till a change of the conditions or till achieving 90%
infection. The “involved population” are all susceptible people or the people
comprised in one wave.</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The real progression of the Covid-19 epidemic in certain
areas or in certain groups of people might be approximated/ modelled/ predicted
by a combination of the above curves constructed for suitable values of R<sub>0</sub>, group sizes, and the initial number of infected people, provided that at least some points of the real progression
are known, such as the number of infected people in the country at a certain
time – however, real values are mostly missing for all times and for all
countries (let us not forget that the number of reported
cases and the number of infected people are totally different).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Sweden is taken below as an example for reconstructing a
progression curve. The number of total cases can be obtained for every date in
Worldometers (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/">here</a></span>),
but the reported cases have no clear relation to the real number of totally
infected by certain date; the last November case number is 243,129, which
corresponds to 2.4% of the Swedish population, but the serologic testing showed
6-10% in April. By combining all available information, and by employing model
progression curves like those in Fig. 2 and 3, a crude reconstruction of a
Covid-19 propagation curve has been suggested for Sweden in <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/reconstruction-of-covid-19-propagation.html">Fig.
4</a></span> – see the sequence of red arrows representing linear approximations
of distinct phases during the developments. The arrows outline a roughly two-wave
progression from January till the supposed predicted end in spring 2021. Although
the first cases appeared already in December 2019 in Sweden, the time axis of
the graph starts on January 1, 2020; a “covert phase” of 10 weeks was taken
from Fig. 3 for R<sub>0</sub> = 3 and N<sub>max</sub> = 10,000,000 (R<sub>0</sub>
of 3.3 would make the phase shorter by two weeks, 50 initially infected instead of 1 would shorten the phase by 3 more weeks). After about 10 weeks (on March
3, 16, and 27), protecting measures were announced in Sweden, including
restrictions in social contacts, which lowered the initial reproduction number
of 3; this is corroborated by the lower speed of case growth as seen in the
mentioned Worldometers curve of the total cases (and in <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span>). Serologic tests showed about 6% infection among the population in early
April and roughly 10% around the end of April (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us">here</a></span>).
The values of R<sub>0</sub> of 1.15 and 1.05 fitted the initial slow case
increase, the reduction in July probably reflecting the children summer holiday. More relaxed atmosphere (including softening some restrictions, returning children to schools) increased the case growth in the autumn. The “second wave” of October is best fitted by a curve for R<sub>0</sub> = 1.4
and a population of 6.5 million (the supposedly remaining fraction of
uninfected Swedes in the end of September); the curve predicts the continuing
growth of the cases till 90% IPF toward the end of the year, followed by slow
ending of the epidemics within six weeks (Tables 6 and 8 rely on <i>M </i>= 10 and
therefore seem to provide lower IPF values than Fig. 4). The situation in Sweden is described as two waves, but in fact
the development reflects continual changes in the R values, and can be
separated to at least three distinct waves (Fig. 4 in fact comprises four
waves). Real
development may differ from the one outlined in Fig. 4, as the red
“progression curve” of Fig. 4 comprises only one single flimsily confirmed
point – i.e. about 10% infection around April.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The above analysis shows that the character of the case
number growth may suggest where on a progression curve we are: <b>exponential growth suggests that the infected
population fraction is below 10%, while linear growth suggests that the infection
fraction is above 10%, possibly up to 90% of the involved population </b>(i.e. population
which is involved in the specific wave). The above simple model could be extremely useful if we had measurements of randomly selected population samples supplying specific IPF values. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Herd immunity</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">It is believed that certain levels of infection will slow
down the disease spread and stop it, for example when one infected person will
not be able to infect more than one other person, which will supposedly be
achieved at infection levels of 1 – 1/R. This popular formula can be derived
also from our above formula dN/dt = <i>c * N * S</i> by assuming that d<i>N</i>/dt
= <i>N </i>(one ill will create one ill per time unit), providing 1 = <i>c</i>
* <i>S</i> , yielding 1 = R * (1 – IPF/100), resulting in IPF/100 = 1 – 1/R (yielding IPF of 67% for R = 3). If
a part of the population will be vaccinated or otherwise immunized, lower part
of the population will have to be infected to achieve said herd immunity. </div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">For R<sub>o</sub> = 3.3, the threshold for reaching said herd
immunity would be an IPF of about 70%. It is not clear how this would be
reflected in the tentative infection curve of Fig. 4; possibly, “infected
population fraction” could mean the fraction of susceptible part of the
population, wherein the susceptible part would be 70% of the total population
(see the paragraph “Immunity and herd immunity” below). In the paragraphs
below, the point of reaching 90% IPF is called “the end of epidemic”, without
taking the possible threshold of herd immunity into consideration. If such a
threshold will turn out as relevant, the given values of IPF will mean a fraction
of this threshold and not of the whole population.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>The end of the epidemic</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">The case growth had exponential character with R<sub>0</sub>
= 3.3 in the beginning (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span>, for example Australia between March 3 and March 31). The
succeeding government measures continually changed the rules according to which
the population could have been mixed, resulting in alternatingly decreasing and
increasing reproduction number. The infection growth in every wave has a course
similar to the curves shown in Fig. 2 and 3, but with shorter covert phase, followed by a
short exponential phase and, if 10% of the population has been infected, by a
linear phase lasting either till the following change of rules or till
infecting 90% of available subjects. Under constant rules, detecting a linear
period on the growth curve enables to estimate when the whole epidemics will
end, if the number of really infected is known at least for one point within
the linear period. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;">As mentioned above, the fraction of infected in the
population is usually about 10 times higher than the number of positively
tested (<i>M</i> = 10). The following table takes the numbers of cases from
Table 5 (blue data showing cases per million population) and converts them to IPF % (dividing by 10,000 and multiplying by 10); presented are IPF on November 30, and IPF monthly increments for three preceding months. Table 8 shows that the countries
went through sharp increase of the case numbers in November. If the current wave
is not interrupted by changing measures, and if R<sub>0</sub> of this wave is
1.5 (near to an R value suitable for the present wave in Sweden and Czechia),
we can calculate the time for reaching certain IPF within this linear phase;
Table 8 shows the time for reaching IPF of 90% – the point called “the end of
epidemic”. As shown above, the rise from 10% infection to 90% infection theoretically
takes about 10 weeks for R<sub>0</sub> = 1.5 (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/fig1-corona-spread.html">Fig.3</a></span>, R<sub>0</sub>
= 1.5), providing about 1 week for every 10% infection increment. For example,
Spain reported 35604 cases per million by November 30 (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span>), corresponding to about 3.5% positively tested, providing 35% (<i>M</i>=10)
infected population fraction; it takes about (90-35=55, 55/10=5.5) 5.5 weeks to get from 35% to 90%
infection in the population for R<sub>0</sub>=1.5, being rounded to 6 weeks in
the table. If a herd immunity is involved, the time to the end should be
shorter.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5kV0kRoTwtKqSx7yFlOugAlZddy8M3qu4dIMs1FnPBSbijEJnCj95hlbJ0TZodQ19woM1iF2p8LbN2xXp_2yp_7d9WjZq8jbQx7gaeXYByigVDDA84rCyyVMzC3j8qGMkVm_Xyw2Unu4/s1650/Tab+8_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5kV0kRoTwtKqSx7yFlOugAlZddy8M3qu4dIMs1FnPBSbijEJnCj95hlbJ0TZodQ19woM1iF2p8LbN2xXp_2yp_7d9WjZq8jbQx7gaeXYByigVDDA84rCyyVMzC3j8qGMkVm_Xyw2Unu4/w640-h494/Tab+8_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Although R<sub>0</sub> in some countries is around 1.5 or
more (Sweden or Czechia), strict measures in others has lowered the effective
R. Therefore, additional predictions, based on the November growth rate, have
been deduced from the fresh November data as follows. The weekly increments of
the new cases have been read from the WHO November reports (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/november-weekly-case-increments.html">here</a></span>);
it was verified that the November period comprised at least two succeeding
one-week case increments (confirming that November comprised a phase of the linear
infection growth in these countries, even though the speed was later somewhat
stopped in Spain, Britain, Switzerland, France, and Czechia due to the new
strict measures). The time to achieving 90% infection has been calculated for each
country, supposing that November speed continues. For example, Sweden had
243,129 cases on November 30, corresponding to about 2.4 million really
infected (<i>M</i>=10), and the linear November period comprised about 30,000
new cases per week, corresponding to 300,000 infected (<i>M</i>=10); 90% of
10.1 million Swedish population makes about 9 million, of which (9 - 2.4 =) 6.6
will be infected within (6.6/0.3=) 22 weeks. This estimation is in the 3rd column
of Table 9. The 2nd column shows the values from Table 8.</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;">It seems that Sweden has more infected people than being provided
by <i>M</i>=10, and indeed <i>M</i> was higher in Sweden (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span>) and possibly elsewhere too; therefore, another prediction has
been deduced from the weekly increments, supposing M=20 to provide a broader range of predictions, while calculating the
time to 90% infection and using either the weekly increment of said linear
phase, or the increment of the last November week if it is lower than said
linear one (due to the taken measures), thus providing a range of times in the
4th column of Table 9, the higher limit being in brackets. The 5th column
shows the average value of the previous columns.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCLUrBbu7OoupLOd0K3RBV4tFCx_kenOx4wzTzXTZFAULZkaNT9i297l1gf4PkLAQLoCfoQgH3HTjq2rXChvSmsEq6GiFrCPebeo_KHsw3GOTIvVU4PfmpGIZIohieuuCV-0lwkOdoHGs/s1650/Tab+9_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCLUrBbu7OoupLOd0K3RBV4tFCx_kenOx4wzTzXTZFAULZkaNT9i297l1gf4PkLAQLoCfoQgH3HTjq2rXChvSmsEq6GiFrCPebeo_KHsw3GOTIvVU4PfmpGIZIohieuuCV-0lwkOdoHGs/w640-h494/Tab+9_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">It can be seen that Czechia might come to the end around the
New Year. Germany might overcome the epidemics in summer and other countries in
spring, if not implementing new measures. Israel may take another year
if not releasing the stringent measures governing the country from the
beginning of the epidemic. The East Asian and Australian regions will have to
suffer for another year, either trying to catch all cases or vaccinate the
people, similarly to North-European countries which have managed to keep the
infection low.</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The 2nd column of Table 9 shows that the <b>epidemics might
be over in all countries within two months form November 30, i.e. by the end of
January, if curfews and lockdowns are stopped, and if CoV-2 is allowed to
spread with R<sub>0</sub> 1.5 or more</b>; a part of the remaining several
percent uninfected people may provide several more cases within the
following three months, without any relevant effects.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The 3rd and the 4th columns of Table 9 show that the end of
the epidemics may be delayed by several months due to the unnecessary and
harmful measures taken by the politicians. For example, Israel’s cases linearly
increased from August till October (see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span>), adding a million new cases every month, which might have ended
the whole problem next January; but the current slowdown may unfortunately keep
the country in suspense for many more months to come. Entirely empty hospitals in
Israel show that no “flattening the curve” is needed, and only opportunism of
the epidemic managers keep the country frozen. Millions of vaccines are being
imported now in Israel, and many people (of whom a half or more will have already
been infected without knowing that) may now be treated with vaccines which have
not been duly tested.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Since no hard data about the real IPF values are available,
there is always a possibility of surprisingly different development, such as,
for example, that some countries, and surely regions (like North Italy), have already come near to
the epidemic end or to a threshold of herd immunity.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: red;">The above analysis suggests that
without erroneous measures imposed by opportunist politicians and health
managers, the epidemics might have passed through the populations during the
first year, without any need for mass vaccination.</span> <o:p></o:p></b></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Lethality</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">The deaths as a percent fraction of infected people is
called lethality (or fatality rate). The deaths per million can be taken from <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-5-all-countries-updated-till.html">Table
5</a></span> (red numerals), as well as the cases per million (blue numerals), their
ratio is multiplied by 100 to get lethality percent in Table 10.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI1gn7hchIfhSHCLIxhQsgJvkWQupGMcx1NDcKMq-VrOSDC2Pj3eFJCFVKNVc2Nj-lEMOY2ti-vSrQpqC5tIFXQbcfihffOiBX9j2DvSlcm41_AMJKEu3tssUPplzK2Ix8PCh5gYEgy8k/s1650/Tab+10_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI1gn7hchIfhSHCLIxhQsgJvkWQupGMcx1NDcKMq-VrOSDC2Pj3eFJCFVKNVc2Nj-lEMOY2ti-vSrQpqC5tIFXQbcfihffOiBX9j2DvSlcm41_AMJKEu3tssUPplzK2Ix8PCh5gYEgy8k/w640-h494/Tab+10_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The overall lethality values are in the range of 0.22<u>+</u>0.14% (if excluding Singapore and China). As for China, none of their reported values are
reliable. As for Singapore, some death reports are probably missing in
Singapore, otherwise it would be difficult to explain the totally different
lethality value of 0.01%. Relatively lower value for Israel might be explained
by underestimated deaths, or by overestimating the number of infected, or both;
<i>M</i> for Israel may be somewhat less than 10, as the broad tracking and
testing may have caught more cases than elsewhere; nevertheless, the November lethality values exhibit a lower dispersion among the considered countries, the values being in the range of 0.14<u>+</u>0.09. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Other factors affecting the mortality (deaths per million
people) and lethality (deaths per 100 infected people) include the age
composition of the population, since deaths per million of people of certain
age increases 3 times for every ten years of age (see further below); as a
result, the age of most victims is 65+. As the fraction of citizens 65+ is
twice greater in Sweden than in Israel, 2-fold mortality and lethality would be
expected for Sweden compared to Israel (in the end of the epidemic) – and the present
ratio indeed equals 2.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Table 7 (waves) shows that the lethality has been gradually
decreasing during the pandemic. It can be also seen in Table 10, which shows <b>the
average overall lethality during the whole epidemic till November to be 0.22%, while
the lethality in November alone to be in average only 0.13%</b>. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Lethality of 0.13% is somewhat higher than usual estimations
of 0.1% for influenza (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/">here</a></span>).
However, as the numbers of new deaths grow slower that the numbers of new
cases, the lethality will still decrease, so that the <b>final fatality rates in
most countries will be very close to the flu values</b>.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Mortality and age effects</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">On data from Czechia, Israel, Sweden, and U.S. I have
demonstrated an exponential growth of the Covid-19 mortality with age, showing
that <b>the fraction of people dying with CoV-2 increases about three times for
every ten years of age</b> (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/11/data-from-czechia-israel-sweden-and-us.html">here</a></span>).</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The published data on Covid deaths in age groups (ten years cohorts
in four countries) have been combined with the age distributions in said
countries (see the <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-9.html">Table 9</a></span>). It can be
seen that the deaths numbers (absolute, not recalculated per million people)
seem to form approximately geometric series with a common ratio of between 2
and 4 till the age of about 75. The exponential character to still higher ages is
corroborated when recalculating the deaths numbers in each age cohort per
million people in said cohort. The three small countries (all having a
population of about 10 million) show nearly the same average common ratio value
of about 3.5 <u>+</u> 0.1 for the geometric series, despite different sample
sizes. The U.S. show a lower value of 2.5. Thus, the fraction of people dying
with Covid-19 in Czechia, Israel and Sweden increases 3.5 times for every ten
years of age, and in the U.S. 2.5 times for every ten years of age. Roughly,
the mortality (death per million) thus increases 3 times for every ten years in
all countries.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The people 85 years old or older form 2% US population (=6.6
million), so that about 60 000 Cov-2 deaths in this age group (as of September,
see the Table) constituted less than 1% in the cohort.<b> The
probability that a person 85+ would die with Covid in the U.S. is 1%</b>; the people
around 75 years old have about three times lower probability of dying with
corona – i.e. only 0.3%, the people around 65 old 0.1%, around 55 old 0.03%,
around 45 old 0.01%, and around 35 old 0.004%. So, any <b>panic is unfounded.
Let us remember that about 1% of the population die every year regardless Covid-19.</b> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It as estimated (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/36/22035.full.pdf">here</a></span>)
that Covid-19 mortality rate in the U.S. increases by about 9.5% per one year
of age; this provides (1.095<sup>10</sup> = ) 2.5 fold increase per 10 years of
age – exactly the value as observed here in my <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-9.html">Table 9</a></span>, despite the
fact that my data are from September and their from April. The publication
further estimates an increase of 12% per year of age for South Korea, Italy,
France, Germany, England and Wales, and Spain, which provides (1.12<sup>10</sup>
= ) 3.1 fold increase per 10 years. The increase of 3.5 for Czechia, Israel,
and Sweden as observed here is somewhat higher (corresponding to 3.5<sup>0.1</sup>
= 13% per year of age) than estimated for the above countries, but there are
factors specific for different populations, as noted also in the cited
publication.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>What will the final deaths number be?</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the above paragraphs, the number of deaths per 100
infected (lethality) is assessed at roughly 0.1% for the later waves. The
following table crudely estimates how many more people would die with corona
till the end of the epidemic. The first prediction in the 4th column of Table
11 assumes that i) the infected population fraction (IPF) is as shown in Table
8, ii) the epidemic will stop at 90% IPF, iii) the lethality will now be 0.1%
in all countries. For example, the U.S. seems to have 40% population being
infected, so that 50% population would additionally be infected, which is about
166,000,000, of which 0.1% (=1/1000) would die. The second prediction in the 5th
column of Table 11 assumes that a) the end of the epidemic will come as predicted
in Table 9 (average), and b) the deaths will grow as quickly as they did during
November (taken from Table 5); an average value is given in the 6th column. The
last column sums the already reported deaths and the average predicted deaths.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNUk-7pLb5WAxhznMM_NfUpIH12PLcCL-LyCAyrVDz4AGHhhAmcptXr7yaF9e2L0k9AcN-mbjDtO_fGZ9IuSweeNH15qFA5p9LhtOvNRNe-JO4ZgRapgPOPKj-Z3Rwv99Zqzkb9EuaR3o/s1650/Tab+11_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNUk-7pLb5WAxhznMM_NfUpIH12PLcCL-LyCAyrVDz4AGHhhAmcptXr7yaF9e2L0k9AcN-mbjDtO_fGZ9IuSweeNH15qFA5p9LhtOvNRNe-JO4ZgRapgPOPKj-Z3Rwv99Zqzkb9EuaR3o/w640-h494/Tab+11_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">It is not clear how an eventual herd immunity threshold
would be reflected in the above estimations; one would expect lowering of the
values, but the published estimations are higher than obtained here (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7480627/">here</a></span>, <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7236739/">here</a></span>).
Nevertheless, it is possible that IPF is higher than obtained for M=10 in some
countries, at least for Sweden, and that the epidemic may stop at some herd
immunity threshold lower than 90%; all these factors might reduce the average predicted
additional deaths to a half. So that final deaths, for example, in Israel would be around 5000, in Switzerland around 7,000, in Sweden around 9000, and in Czechia around 10,000.</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">All the above estimations do not consider vaccination, which
is planned to start soon, even though the predicted end of epidemic will
overlap with the start of vaccination in many countries; the vaccination
effects can hardly be predicted. Since there are no hard data available, all
estimations here are very crude, and all predictions are still wilder. The
Asian and Australian deaths have been very low so far, and predictions for
these countries have no sense. It seems that the additional deaths (from now
till end) will hardly exceed the present deaths numbers, with Germany and
Israel being exceptions; the prediction for Germany of Table 11 seems rather
high in relation to the present situation there.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Generally, <b>final deaths in the U.S., Europe, and Israel will
be far from apocalyptic predictions</b>. <b>The final mortality will roughly be
close to 0.1% population, and they will constitute less than 10% of usual annual
mortality in the end.</b> How many of the deaths will, in longer run, appear as
excessive in comparison to the previous years remains to be seen.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Excess deaths</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As observed in the above paragraph on the predicted total
deaths, about 0.1% population would die with Covid-19 during the whole epidemics,
which may last roughly from December 2019 to February 2021, i.e. roughly 15
months. This makes CoV-2-associated annual mortality of (0.1%/1.25 = ) 0.08%
population. Usual annual mortality is about 1/100 of the population, so that <b>Covid-19-associated
deaths would constitute 8% of the usual annual mortality</b>,<b> but only a
part of this mortality will result in an annual excess deaths</b>, since
Covid-19 is not the main reason of deaths in many cases. A Czech analysis of October
deaths showed that only 36% of the positively tested for CoV-2 in Czechia died directly
due to the Covid-19 infection (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.novinky.cz/domaci/clanek/umiraji-lide-na-covid-nebo-s-covidem-resort-po-mesicich-zverejnil-data-o-umrtnosti-40343315#utm_content=ribbonnews&utm_term=smrt%20s%20covidem&utm_medium=hint&utm_source=search.seznam.cz">here</a></span>).
This would suggest that a longer-term excess deaths would correspond to less
than 8%, for example to (in the above case 0.36*8=) about 3%. For comparison, the average annual influenza-associated
mortality rate (about 10 per 100,000, <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3516362/">here</a>)</span>
contributes to the usual annual mortality (which is as said above 1000 per
100,000) by 1%; of course strong flu pandemics may have contributed ten times more that that (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic">here</a>), easily overcoming Covid-19. <span style="background-color: white;"> </span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Excess deaths due to CoV-2 will have to be assessed over
longer periods of two years or more (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps">here</a></span>). <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Interestingly, the above Czech analysis further showed that
the 2020 October mortality was 14,000, compared to 9000 a years ago, wherein
only 2,849 out of the 5000 excessive death were CoV-2 positively tested, so
that 2,151 had to be assigned to other factors, showing that at least <b>40% of
the excessive mortality may be caused by the reduced activity of the health
system</b> in the time of corona.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Differences between countries or regions</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Comparing the final deaths in various countries strongly
suggests that the measures have not affected the epidemic
course as desired. For example, the complex and <b>strict measures taken in Czechia
resulted in more deaths than in Sweden who conducted the most liberal Covid
politics</b>. Observations that the number of infected and dead do not always parallel
the protective measures taken in various countries have been expressed
repeatedly (for example <span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS"><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-icmr-completes-second-sero-survey/article32654776.ece">here</a></span></span>),
and that the measures should be softened (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="CS"><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html">here</a></span></span>).
Closing schools, for example, has been harmful (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.13.20211359v2">here</a></span>).</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The measures have affected the speed of the virus spread by
lowering its effective reproduction number, as demonstrated by the
reconstructed propagation curve in Sweden (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/reconstruction-of-covid-19-propagation.html">Fig.
4</a></span>), but less clear is which measures had effects and how much. Other
factors, beside the preventive measures, have an influence on the number of
diseased and deceased people. These factors include, among others, the type of
virus strain and the properties of the population; the population properties include
genetic structure, age structure, compartmentalization due to its areal
distribution and living habits. Some factors may affect the time course but not
the final results, including the number of people bringing the infection from
abroad or the timing of inoculation. Naturally, the number of deaths is a
function of the infected population fraction, so that the values in different
countries are comparable only at the same IPF levels (which, however, are not
known and can be only roughly estimated).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Some differences may be explained by the population age. For
example, the difference between Sweden and Israel, as seen in Table 8, namely
roughly <b>two-fold number of deaths per million in Sweden compared to Israel,
might be explained by the fact that most deceased people are 65+, and the
Swedish population has 20% people of this age segment, whereas Israel only 10%</b>
(see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-9.html">Table
9</a></span>); if this should be the case, the strictest measures of Israel
would then look unnecessary (if not stupid).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">East-Asian and Australian regions show strikingly less
reported cases, and correspondingly less deaths. Some North-European countries,
except for Sweden, also show less reported cases. For example Norway, that
applied very strict measures, including total lockdown, has reported four times
less cases than Sweden. The mentioned countries may have delayed the full
corona outbreak, but they will have great problems when the epidemics in most
other countries will have ended. The question is what the final number of
deaths would be in these countries. Of course, the vaccination will change the
picture.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It was suggested that, <b>in addition to the existence of
different CoV-2 strains, previous infections by non-CoV-2 coronaviruses might
have changed the immunity levels differently in various areas </b>(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-020-00663-3">here</a></span>).</p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Immunity to Cov-2, herd immunity</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Despite many doubts, Cov-2 infection does usually result
in the formation of immunity. </b>Antibody detection rate was 92% in
hospitalized patients and 79% in non-hospitalized patients in one study; the
total IgM and IgG detection was 63% in patients with <2 weeks from
disease onset, 85% in non-hospitalized patients with >2 weeks
disease duration, and 91% in hospitalized patients with >2 weeks
disease duration (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20008686.2020.1821513">here</a></span>). </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Cellular immunity, even without humoral immunity (such as
the formation of antibodies), was also observed. Immunity to Cov-2 may be more
widespread than antibody tests suggest; allegedly, <b>for every person testing
positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify
and destroy infected cells</b> (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660">here</a></span>). Several studies
have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of people with
no known exposure to Cov-2 virus; donor blood specimens obtained in the US
between 2015 and 2018 displayed in 50% T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2; an
exposure to other coronaviruses in the past may be responsible; for example, T cells
reacting with SARS-CoV-1 (causing 2003 SARS epidemic) were shown to last at
least 17 years after infection (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563">here</a></span>). Preexisting
CD4+ T cells induced by common cold coronaviruses, such as HCoV-OC43, gathered
in the past common cold episodes might cross-react with Cov-2, making some
people more immune to Cov-2 and explaining population heterogeneity in this respect (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-020-00663-3">here</a></span>).
Such pre-existing immunity can’t be detected with usual tests. It was
demonstrated that some convalescents with PCR-confirmed CoV-2 infection had undetectable
CoV-2 specific IgG, but showed cellular immunity to CoV-2; sixty days after
onset of symptoms, 17% participants had borderline or negative IgG against the
S1 protein of CoV-2, whereas cca 80% of PCR-positive volunteers with
undetectable antibodies showed T cell immunity against CoV-2, the same as
convalescent donors with strong antibody responses; but participants without
symptoms of CoV-2 infection and without household contact did not have immunity
(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/1/20-3772_article">here</a></span>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">It is generally supposed that good collective immunity (herd
immunity) against Cov-2 is achieved at about 60% infected population rate (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772167">here</a></span>).
Some models show that the herd immunity might be achieved, or the community
spread might be slowed down, at a population infection rates of about 40% or even
much lower, if considering age-structured community mixing rates instead of homogeneous
immunization, and when taking into account population heterogeneity and
compartmentalization (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846">here</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.inverse.com/science/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected">here</a>,
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v2">here</a>,
<a href="https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-020-00663-3">here</a></span>).
However, the mentioned infection rates of 40% have been achieved in various
regions, and no special protective effects are reported. Moreover, even the
popular formula (1 – 1/R) for a “herd immunity threshold” (see paragraph on
Herd immunity above), need not necessarily work with Covid-19. Certain patterns of the population mixing and population compartmentalization have been
considered as a reason for lowering the immunity threshold, but they can also increase
it; the herd immunity threshold need not be achieved as expected, for example when a population comprises particular separated communities (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3782273/">here</a></span>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Different SARS-CoV-2 strains</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">There are currently more than 35,000 publicly available
genomes of SARS-CoV-2 (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://asm.org/Articles/2020/October/SARS-CoV-2-Sequencing-Data-The-Devil-Is-in-the-Gen">here</a></span>,
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0770-5">here</a></span>), but no
ground-breaking findings have been published about the numerous mutants (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.genomeweb.com/genetic-research/sars-cov-2-genome-study-reveals-dominant-strain#.X8Vr587itaQ">here</a></span>),
which would change the general picture. <i>Nature</i> issue of 25 November
stated that there was no reason to believe that some of the mutants would
emerge as a lineage with increased transmission (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2#Sec">here</a></span>).</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">One of the mutants, namely D614G (replacing aspartic by
glycine in the position 614 of the spike protein), was stated to result in a
strain with different properties (June, <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.148726v1.full.pdf">here</a></span>);
namely, it was stated that the new strain exhibited better transmission, in
spite of what was stated in said publication of November 25. Several weeks ago it
was suggested that the existence of these two strains may explain different epidemic
courses in various parts of the U.S. (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-020-00663-3">here</a></span>).
New York City and East Coast regions were heavily hit during the initial Covid-19
but were less affected during the second wave, while south western regions
behaved quite oppositely. The two regions were supposedly infected by two different
lineages of the virus, with the East Coast lineage being allegedly more
infectious. It was suggested that the existence of different CoV-2 strains, in
addition to different levels of past exposures to previously known
coronaviruses, caused the observed differences<b> </b>(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-020-00663-3">here</a></span>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>SARS-CoV-2 origin</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As for the origin of the virus, its escape from the Wuhan
Virology Institute is beyond any doubt. The only questions are i) whether the
virus escaped intentionally, and ii) whether the virus was genetically changed
while in the laboratory. Some interesting changes in its genome when compared to
its close relatives have been described (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">here</a></span>),
but no decisive conclusions have been published. For example, 5’-UTR region was
repeatedly mentioned in Czech media as comprising more mutations than expected (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/czech-molecular-biologist-dr-sona-pekova-explains-in-layman-terms-that-covid-19-virus-originates-from-a-lab/">here</a></span>);
however, by comparing the genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 with other
coronaviruses, I demonstrated that CoV-2 is not less conservative in its 5’-UTR
than other coronaviruses (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/08/5-utr-of-coronaviruses-mutates-twice.html">here</a></span>).
The principal work to answer the critical questions remains to be done. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The epidemic probably broke out in Wuhan already in summer 2019 (<a href="https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767">here</a>). In view of the above mentioned covert phase of several months, the epidemic start, probably an escape from a laboratory, may be put to spring 2019. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Sweden</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">Sweden did introduce protective measures, starting in March,
including limitations of social contacts and protecting senior citizens. Most
of the measures were voluntary, including limiting traveling and using masks.
Work from home was recommended, as well as distance learning at secondary
schools and universities. But the schools, businesses, shops, and pubs remained open,
and the country borders remained opened as well. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Most democratic countries, in contrast to Sweden, closed
their borders, banned the right of the citizens to travel in and out of the
country, closed all types of schools, shops, hotels, restaurants, small businesses, of which many
went bankrupt. The government actions went beyond any limits imaginable a year
ago, including restricting restaurants to certain hours, dividing children to
small groups at school and forcing them to see their teachers in zoom, ordering
the use of masks in cars or during walks in forests, forcing little children to
wear masks, banning prayers in churches and synagogues, finally entirely abolishing
kindergartens and all schools, prohibiting to drive between cities, banning celebrations
of the traditional holidays, prohibiting visiting children, parents and
grandparents, restricting exit out of one’s house to several hundred meters,
and forcing the citizens to regularly listen to the advice of totally ignorant
politicians.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Despite the above striking difference between reasonable
Sweden and irrational world, the mainstream media, like Guardian and Time, call
the Swedish way a disaster (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/">here</a>)</span> or
a dangerous falacy (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/ending-covid-19-via-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy">here</a></span>),
without reasonable arguments, but even scientific media do not like the Swedish
tolerant way, for example <i>Nature</i>
mentioning it as not persuasive (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4">here</a></span>). </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">In the beginning, Sweden exhibited high mortality caused by
high numbers of older citizens in the care homes (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7369443/">here</a></span>)
which, even beside corona, have various chronic problems, like employing or
accommodating immigrants (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1369183X.2013.756686">here</a></span>,
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/swedish-town-to-integrate-refugees-by-housing-them-with-pensioners/a-51623961">here</a></span>).
However, the deaths numbers in many countries have caught up with the numbers
in Sweden, and it turns out that the Swedish rational and humane attitude not
only did not result in more deaths, but on the contrary, the most extreme
examples of lockdowns and strict measures led to more deaths in the end (see
Table 7). In the list of all countries (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">here</a></span>),
Sweden was the 39th in the number of cases and the 24th in the number of deaths on December 5.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Treatments for Covid-19</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">Only a small part of the infected have clear symptoms;
unusual fatigue and other unpleasant residual problems have been observed, including neurological problems, but
how long and whether lasting problems will stay is unclear (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-30992030701-5/fulltext#%20">here</a></span>).
Covid-19 complicating consequences comprise the formation of blood clots (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30243-5/fulltext">here</a></span>).
However, the reduction of lethality during one year with CoV-2 may suggest that
the health establishment has learned to better handle the difficult cases. The
application of ventilation and intubation has been limited and also optimized,
serum with antibodies has been applied in critical cases, steroids were used, and
several drug combinations have been employed, comprising vitamin D or
derivatives, which seems to reduce severity of the Covid-19 (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub#bib0100">here</a></span>).
Triple combinations of hydroxychloroquine with zinc and either azithromycin or
doxycycline seem helpful (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04370782">here</a></span>, <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920304258">here</a></span>).
</div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Vaccination</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">A number of companies have developed a vaccine and started
clinical trials. Ready for mass production are the vaccines of AstraZeneca,
Pfizer, and Moderna (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/">here</a></span>).
As the title of <i>Nature</i> article of November 25 reads: “COVID-19 vaccines
poised for launch, but impact on pandemic unclear” (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00022-y">here</a></span>). AstraZeneca
injects a “harmless” modified common cold adenovirus which enters the patient’s
cells and produces Covid spike protein (for this common cold adenovirus see <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page_27.html">here</a></span>);
Pfizer and Moderna inject a “harmless” modified RNA which enters the patient’s
cells and there acts as a messenger RNA, thus producing Covid spike protein;
the spike protein fragments are supposedly presented on the surface of the cells and elicit the required immune response. The RNA vaccine was reported to be
more efficient, 95% versus 70%, but also more expensive. Moreover, Moderna
requires transport and storage at -20<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">°</span>C
and Pfizer even at -70<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">°</span>C.
By the way, it would be strange if the same types of vaccine required so
different storage conditions, and Pfizer seem to have shot themselves in the
foot, when trying to look as dramatic as that. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">A price may be in the order of $25 for the RNA vaccine dose
(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/the-story-of-mrna-how-a-once-dismissed-idea-became-a-leading-technology-in-the-covid-vaccine-race/">here</a></span>),
so that the two-dose vaccination (as planned) might make 100 billion when used
for two billion people, so that there surely is good motivation to vaccinate
the whole mankind, as supported by Bill Gates (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-predicts-success-with-coronavirus-vaccines-2020-11">here</a></span>),
who personally contributed to the development efforts. However, once the
vaccine development used to take many years; it would be the first time in
history, when a vaccine would be developed in less than one year and so quickly
applied. Moreover, using the adenovirus vector is not a routinely employed
method, and in regard to an RNA vaccine – this is an entirely new concept,
never before practically tested, let alone routinely employed. It might be dangerous to try a
totally novel method on the whole mankind.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>One of the principal researchers who participated in developing
the RNA vaccine, Prof. Drew Weissman, warned against dangers of the RNA
vaccines in his article three years ago</b> (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5906799/">here</a></span>): <i>"</i><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: HE; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><i>Potential safety concerns that are likely to be
evaluated in future preclinical and clinical studies include local and systemic
inflammation, the biodistribution and persistence of expressed immunogen,
stimulation of auto-reactive antibodies and potential toxic effects of any
non-native nucleotides and delivery system components. A possible concern could
be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms induce potent type I interferon
responses, which have been associated not only with inflammation but also
potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, </i><b style="font-style: italic;">identification of individuals at an
increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow
reasonable precautions to be taken</b><i>. Another potential safety issue could derive
from the presence of extracellular RNA during mRNA vaccination. Extracellular
naked RNA has been shown to increase the permeability of tightly packed
endothelial cells and may thus contribute to oedema. Another study showed that
extracellular RNA promoted blood coagulation and pathological thrombus formation." </i>(bold-marked by me)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: red;">The mentioned autoimmune effects,
as well as a number of other potential problems, are frightening. I would not
recommend to anybody to participate in the vaccination by a vaccine which has
not passed through normal classical examination and approval process.
Particularly, this new type of vaccine, RNA-vaccine, has never been tested
before. In addition, when the vaccination starts, a half population will
probably have been immunized by CoV-2 itself, as at least this fraction of the
population will have been infected by then.
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>How should the epidemic have been handled?</u></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">Already in spring, broad experience from many countries showed that Covid-19 resembles influenza in endangering mainly weak people, but unlike flu it does not attacks children. It was soon clear that the risk conditions are chronic heart disease, diabetes, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease, obesity, cancer, immunocompromised status and old age. Many deaths involve two or three underlying conditions. On the other hand, healthy people pass the infection with light symptoms or mostly without any symptoms. The <b>first point</b> in any strategy should have been to <b>protect the vulnerable</b> by using masks in their environs, limiting their contacts with other people, and PCR-testing people in frequent contacts with them. The <b>second point</b> should have been to <b>regularly assess the status of the epidemic in the country and in the regions by randomly and representatively sampling the population</b>, similarly to sampling voters for pre-election polls; even a sample of 4000 people might help (millions tests have been performed without a clear goal). Serologic tests and simultaneous PCR would give a clear picture of the epidemic in a certain moment; monthly repetitions would clearly show the development. The numbers of hospitalized, of difficult cases, and of deaths could have been easily predicted. Most infected could have stayed at home. As the <b>third point</b>, <b>in case of overloading</b>, the health system might be helped by <b>restricting large sport and culture events</b> like soccer games or cinema performances, and eventually by voluntarily restricting unnecessary free-time activities, if needed.<b> </b>The fact is that in many countries, including Israel and Czechia, the hospitals had never been so empty as in the time of corona. As <b>fourth point</b>, <b>those who have went through the infection might have been serologically looked for and given a free-pass certificate</b> (preferably international), which would absolve them of any potential restrictions (and would make them a pool of safe persons for certain functions or in the environs of the vulnerable). In view of yet unclear long-term effects, the voluntary infection would not have been supported, but normal functions of the society would not have been stopped in order to avoid further infections. Schools and businesses would stay opened, but nobody would be prevented from personally protecting oneself if reconcilable with her/his work. As the <b>fifth point</b>, <b>the</b> <b>state would have invested large sums on research of the current virus and its origin</b>, including promoting general knowledge of the related subjects in virology and epidemiology, aiming at explaining the epidemic, preventing the next one, and developing safe vaccines – preferably within international cooperation, but if not possible, only within one country. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>All other measures, including closures, lockdowns, curfews, bans, fines, </b><b>distancing, bubbles, capsules, curve flattening, rating, traffic lights, tracking, maps, and risk indicators/points/scores, </b><b>have been ludicrous and harmful. </b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><u>Conclusions</u></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The current coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated that the
Western democratic world is not able to cope with global problems. No leaders
have risen up in any country to lead, and no political or scientific national
or international body has come up with usable ideas. No systematic population
random sampling has been performed. A dark cloud of fear has fallen upon the
Western society and has frozen it. The health system has reduced its activities,
the elderly homes prevented contacts with family members, contacts between
parents and children have been prohibited, and people have been dying for many
reasons other than corona. The media have not provided scientific information
but only frightened and confused the public. Only rare voices dared to name
China as the main culprit. China can be happy. Among democratic countries, only Sweden abstained
from hysteria. Regarding nondemocratic countries, nothing can be expected from
them, and of course they have been lying as usually. </div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Already in spring, it was clear that Covid-19 is not as
dangerous as to stop all social and economic activities. Instead of protecting
the vulnerable, the politicians in democratic countries were aping each other
and locked their whole countries down; they will never admit errors, and they will never wonder why Sweden with less lockdowns has managed with less panic and less damages. Even if the pandemic will have faded away by itself, the corrupt Western officials will give credit to the vaccine and to themselves. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b>As mentioned above, the virus does create both humoral
and cell immunity, and it will fade away, probably next spring. Vaccines may contribute to the psychological recovery of the Western society, but they
will be </b><b>medically useless</b><b>, as most population will have been immunized by the
virus itself. However, without detailed serologic testing before the vaccination, nobody will be later able to distinguish the immunity caused by CoV-2 from the immunity caused by the vaccination. </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="color: red;">If lessons will not be taken from
this pandemic, additional future events similar to Covid-19 may bring the
Western democracy near its end.</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.6667px;"><b><u>____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________</u></b></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 8pt;">The questions answered</span></u></b><span style="font-size: 8pt;">:</span></span></div><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">* What part of the population
has really been infected by Covid-19? : 15-50% in many countries in December.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">* How quickly does Covid-19
spread in the population? : Without any
measures, Covid-19 would pass through the population within 4 months, with mild
measures 18 months, and with strict measures for several years.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">* How does the 2nd wave differ
from the 1st one? : By low lethality, usually 0.1% or less.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">* How does the age affect the
probability of death from Covid-19? : Very old have a chance of 1% to die on
Covid, every 10 years of lower age
reduces the chance 3-fold.<br /></span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 8pt;">* What is the
real lethality of Covid-19? : About 0.1%.<br /></span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 10.6667px;">* What will be the final number of deaths? : About 0.1% population will die with corona, but only a part will contribute to a longer term excess deaths, as mainly old and sick people die.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 10.6667px;">* Do the protective measures help? : Restrictions of the whole population prolong the epidemic and do not reduce the final deaths. Only protecting the most vulnerable may reduce the deaths.<br /></span></span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 8pt;">* How do the countries differ
from each other? : A wide range of different measures taken in the democratic
countries have not resulted in much different results; the strictest
measures have kept the cases and death near to zero in several countries – but
only temporarily, and the economic costs would be too heavy if applied
everywhere.<br /></span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 8pt;">* Which of 200 countries do
handle Covid-19 optimally and which reasonably? : None optimally, as none have systematically
tested randomly sampled population groups; and Sweden relatively reasonably, as
inflicting least psychological and economic damages.<br /></span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">* How should the epidemic have been handled? : 1) Randomized samples of the population should have been regularly tested both serologically and by PCR to assess the infected fraction both generally and in specific population segments; 2) personnel and families around ill senior people or chronically ill people should have been mask-protected and PCR tested; 3) large sport (soccer) and culture (cinema) gathering might have been limited if hospitals worked at full capacities, but immediately released when the capacities return; voluntary restrictions of free-time activities might also be considered; 4) serologically positive and </span><span style="font-size: 10.6667px;">recovered people should have obtained a free-pass certificate; 5) the state should have organized great efforts and resources on research of the current virus and its origin. <br /></span></span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 8pt;">* When will the epidemic end?
: If the quick November growth of new cases is allowed to proceed without
introducing new restrictions, the early spring will bring the end. Otherwise,
dragging last stages of the epidemics will overlap with the vaccination
actions, with unclear results.<br /></span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-size: 8pt;">* Is the vaccination needed? : No. The vaccination will be applied after a great part of the population will have already been infected. Quickly developed vaccines without due approval process may be dangerous for the mankind health.</span></div></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 8pt;"><br /></span></u></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 8pt;">The Main Points of CorSum</span></u></b><span style="font-size: 8pt;">:</span></div></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8pt;">a) A new virus epidemic
started in Chinese Wuhan in summer 2019, after years of warnings against flimsy
security in the Wuhan virology institute.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">b) The number of positively
tested people (which depends on the number of employed tests) has been
dramatically announced in every country every day; however, the announced
number of cases has been much lower than the number of really infected people,
which has been usually 10 to 100 times higher, often 30 times higher, than the
number of reported cases (the ratio of really infected to positively tested is
called here as </span><i style="font-size: 8pt;">Ratio M</i><span style="font-size: 8pt;">).<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">c) The number of people who
died with corona has been dramatically announced in every country every day,
without mentioning that 1% population die every year, so that 3.3 millions
usually die every year and 9000 every day in the U.S., 600,000 annually and
1600 daily in Italy, 100,000 annually and 275 daily in Sweden, etc. The deaths
have been presented, after dividing by the reported cases, as a very high
lethality of, for example, 3%, but the real lethality (after dividing by real
cases) has been 0.1%, i.e. close to the lethality of flu.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">d) Only 1% of the people who
die with CoV-2 have no other health condition, and most are 65+ old; the number
of deaths decreases 3 times for every ten years of the decreasing age; nearly
no children die, in contrast to flu.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">e) Data for 15 countries were
tabulated from February till July in two-week and later one-month intervals
(see <span class="MsoHyperlink">Table
1</span>), showing, among others, the number of cases per million people
(=apparent morbidity), new daily cases, the number of deaths per million
(=mortality), new daily deaths, and the number of tests per million; the
infected population fraction (IPF) assessed from antibody survey was added
where available. Additional parameters were calculated, including the <i>Ratio
M</i>, the apparent lethality and the corrected lethality. The number of cases
initially grew exponentially, ten fold in two weeks, corresponding to (</span><span style="font-family: "Sylfaen",serif; font-size: 8pt;">√</span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">10=) about 3.2 increase per week; this was in
accordance with the generally accepted reproduction number of about 3.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">f) Even mild Cov-2 infection
seemed to confer cellular immunity against recurrent infection and thus
contributed to the collective immunity.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">g) The politicians around the
world competed with each other in imposing strict measures and playing saviors
of their nations, but all countries in fact imitated each other and were afraid
to independently choose a strategy, except for Sweden, who decided to leave
their public life open, and leave protection measures to the citizens’ free
decision. The protective measures in various countries have seemed to affect
the numbers of cases and deaths only minimally. Eastern Asia and Australia
seemed to go through a milder disease; they aimed at catching and extinguishing
all infections, but in the end experienced a “second corona wave” anyway.
Sweden with its politics of minimal restrictions has achieved the least
economic damages.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 8pt;">h) Only a repeated collection
and testing of a representative population sample (RT-PCR of nasal swabs and
antibodies in blood) would reveal the actually infected population fraction,
and the population percentage having so far been infected (IPF), but
surprisingly none of the 200 countries in the world has done such repeated
testing, despite the feasibility and low cost. Haphazard antibody surveys in
several countries until July have been employed, helping in rough estimation of
IPF values at roughly 1-2% in Australia and Eastern Asia, 6-10% in Western
Europe and Israel, roughly 20-30% in Italy and U.S., and possibly more in
Sweden.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-28237074937837561222020-11-02T22:06:00.007+02:002021-02-26T20:35:41.592+02:00Data from Czechia, Israel, Sweden, and U.S. Show an Exponential Growth of the COVID-19 Mortality with Age – the Fraction of People Dying with COVID-19 Increases About Three Times for Every Ten Years of Age<p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;">The published data on Covid deaths in age groups (ten years
range) in four countries (Czechia, Israel, Sweden, U.S.) have been combined
with the age distributions in said countries (see <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/table-9.html">Table 9</a>). It can be seen that
the deaths numbers (absolute, not recalculated per million people) seem to form
approximately geometric series with a common ratio of between 2 and 4 till the
age of about 75. More consistent geometric series are obtained till still
higher ages by recalculating the deaths numbers in each</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div style="text-align: justify;">age cohort per million
people in said cohort (see the penultimate column in the Table). The last
column in the Table shows the ratio of the deaths number per million in the age
group divided by the deaths number in the adjacent younger age group (for
example, dividing the values 48:13 from the penultimate column provides the first
yellow-marked ratio in the last column of 3.7 – a common ratio estimation for a supposed
geometric series).</div><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The Czechia data correspond to an earlier epidemic stage
(May 2020), with only 279 total deaths in the country, so that only the deaths
values for people above the age of 54 are sufficiently high to be statistically
significant. In the data for Israel, Sweden, and the U.S., with 960, 5880, and
194 000 total deaths (on the shown date of September 2020), respectively, the
values are sufficiently high for ages above 44, 39, and 24, respectively. The
ratio values derived for the ten years ranges with relatively reliable deaths
values are marked yellow in the Table.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The three small countries (all having a population of about
10 million) show nearly the same average ratio value of about 3.5 + 0.1,
despite different sample sizes. The U.S. show a lower value of 2.5. Thus, the fraction
of people dying with COVID-19 in Czechia, Israel and Sweden increases 3.5 times
for every ten years of age, and in the U.S. 2.5 times for every ten years of age.
Roughly, the mortality (death per million) increases 3 times for every ten
years in all countries.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The people 85 years old or older form 2% US population (=6.6
million), so that about 60 000 deaths in this age group constitutes less than
1% in the cohort. This is the probability that a person 85+ will die with Covid
in the U.S.; the people around 75 years old have have about three times lower
probability of dying with corona – i.e. only 0.3%, the people around 65 old 0.1%,
around 55 old 0.03%, around 45 old 0.01%, and around 35 old 0.004%. So, any
panic is indeed unfounded. Let us remember that about 1% of the population die
every year regardless COVID-19 (see also <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">here</a>).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Goldstein & Lee (PNAS 117, 2020, pp 22035-22041)
estimate that COVID-19 mortality rate in the U.S. increases by about 9.5% per one
year of age; this provides (1.095<sup style="text-align: left;">10</sup>= ) 2.5 fold increase per 10 years of age –
exactly the value as observed here in the Table, despite the fact that my data
are from September and their from April. The publication further estimates the
increase of 12% per year of age for South Korea, Italy, France, Germany,
England and Wales, and Spain, which provides (1.12<sup style="text-align: left;">10</sup> = ) 3.1 fold increase per
10 years. The increase of 3.5 for Czechia, Israel, and Sweden as observed here
is higher (corresponding to 3.5<sup style="text-align: left;">0.1</sup> = 13% per year of age) than estimated for
the above countries, but there may be factors specific for different
populations, as noted also in the cited publication.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The above authors hesitated to relate to younger ages, since
they did not have so many cases in April when preparing the publication, but they
guessed that the mortality for the young would be less than predicted from the
exponential relation found for the older ages. When reviewing the U.S. data in
the Table (the other countries have too few cases for younger ages), it indeed
seems that the ratio is higher than 3 for all groups below 35 years old.
Shortly, the danger for young people and children, in contrast with influenza, is
extremely low. It would be interesting to have case histories for the children
who supposedly died with corona.</p><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-73997975809637814102020-09-21T02:51:00.018+03:002020-12-16T19:47:42.787+02:00We Are Probably the Only Intelligent Observers in Our Universe, Thus Being Special Despite the Copernican Principle<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div><div style="text-align: justify;">A quick
estimation of the number of human-like intelligent civilizations in our
universe might go as follows. There are about (the word “about” will be omitted
below, but should be assigned to every number) 200 billion stars in our galaxy,
and there are 200 billion galaxies in the space from which the light has been
able to reach us since the Big Bang 14 billion years ago. So there are 10<sup>22</sup> stars.<span><a name='more'></a></span> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If each star has one planet in average, and if 1/100 of the stars and planets
have the required properties as defined below, the number of planets suitable
for hosting an intelligent civilization like ours is as follows: out of 10<sup>22</sup> stars,
10<sup>20</sup> stars are the same type as our sun, 10<sup>18</sup> stars
are also far enough from the wild events like novae explosions and from the
central black hole of their galaxy, 10<sup>16</sup> stars also have a roughly
Earth-size planet in the star’s habitable zone (acceptable irradiance), 10<sup>14</sup> stars
have further a bigger planet on an outer orbit to protect the Earth-size planet
from asteroids, 10<sup>12</sup> Earth-size planets revolve around their
stars with suitable eccentricity, 10<sup>10</sup> Earth-size planets also have
a suitable rotation around their axis (frequency and direction), 10<sup>8</sup> Earth-size
planets also have plate tectonics, 10<sup>6</sup> Earth-size planets also
have a crust with a suitable chemical composition, 10<sup>4</sup> Earth-size
planets also have a water ocean, 10<sup>2</sup> Earth-size planets also have
a moon stabilizing their rotation axis while ensuring cyclic ocean tides, 10<sup>0</sup> Earth-size
planets also have a suitable atmosphere (composition and pressure).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The
above rough estimation has provided 1 civilization like ours in the whole
observable universe ever – <b><i>the deduced single civilization corresponds to
us</i></b>! </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We
might have chosen different properties and values; however, all estimations provide very low probabilities for the existence
of observers like us. The classical Drake equation, as well as cosmologists’
assessments, usually leads to a conclusion that we are alone<sup>1,2,3</sup>.
Even if there were one more civilization, it would most probably be located 10
billion light years away, so that its signals, even if employing energy sources
as strong as the whole star, could hardly be detected by us. And even if 10,000
civilizations had evolved on different planets since the Big Bang, they would
not exist simultaneously; planet’s life takes 10 billion years (Earth is 4.5
billion now and will be engulfed by the expanding Sun within 5.5 billion years), and if an intelligent civilization lasts 1 million years (optimistically) or less (covering 1/10,000 or less of its planet's existence), each of said 10,000 civilizations
would be alone in its time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Although
there are, according to today’s physics, innumerable parallel universes, in
which innumerable intelligent civilizations exist, and in which even we ourselves
appear in many variations and also in our exact copies – still we are alone in
this specific universe of ours which presently spreads around us to a distance
of 30 billion light years. We should not be special according to the Copernican
principle, but in our universe we probably are.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span><sup style="text-align: left;">1 </sup></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation" style="text-align: left;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation</a></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><sup style="text-align: left;">2</sup><span style="text-align: left;">Max Tegmark, Our Mathematical Universe, Vintage Books,
2015, p. 397</span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><sup style="text-align: left;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">3</span></sup><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle"><span style="color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle</span></a></span></span></div></div><div><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-29391363653332187912020-08-22T00:21:00.005+03:002021-08-12T16:21:04.239+03:00All About Covid-19 While Standing on One Leg<div style="text-align: justify;">Since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic of 2019, I
have been collecting publications from the daily press and professional
journals on the disease and the coronavirus. At the end of July, I summarized
information on the origin and properties of the virus and on its spread around
the world, on morbidity and mortality values, on the response of different
countries and the course of the disease in half a year, and from available data
I further estimated the values of actual lethality and the infection rate in
different countries (see <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">Corona
Summary</a>, shortly <i>CorSum</i> or CS).</div>
<a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">Below, the most important data are presented so concisely that they can
be reviewed while standing on one leg<sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">1</span></sup>; some references are included
here, and more can be found in <i>CorSum</i><sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">2</span></sup>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(1) In 2017, Western scientists warned of possible virus
leaks from laboratories in Wuhan (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(2) In 2018, US diplomats warned against coronavirus leaks
from the laboratories in Wuhan (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(3) In August and September 2019, satellite images showed a surge
in traffic outside Wuhan hospitals (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(4) On 31 December, China reported an epidemic of pneumonia
of unknown origin in the city of Wuhan (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/12/news-scan-dec-31-2019">here</a></span>),
and the Wuhan police announced investigating eight people for spreading rumors
of a new infection (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://covidreference.com/timeline">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(5) On January 7, 2020, the journal <i>Nature</i> received a
work by Chinese scientists who allegedly just succeeded in isolating and
identifying a new coronavirus, including its RNA sequence, from a single
patient within six days, the infection originating on the Wuhan meat market (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(6) On 21 January, the World Health Organization (WHO)
issued Situation Report No 1 (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4">here</a></span>)
announcing that a new viral disease had emerged in China at the end of
December, that China had shared the genome sequence with the world for
developing diagnostic kits on 12 January, and that the disease had meanwhile spread
throughout China and neighboring countries including Japan, Korea and Thailand
(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(7) On 23 January, the WHO’s situation report No 3 announced
the spread of the disease in the United States (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=d6d23643_8">here</a></span>),
and on 25 January, report No 5 announced the spread worldwide (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200125-sitrep-5-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=429b143d_8">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(8) Both the disease and the virus got their names, Covid-19
and SARS-CoV-2, respectively <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(here shortly
CoV-2); it spreads a little faster than the flu (<i><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">CorSum</a></i>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(9) It has been shown that 80% of those infected do not show
symptoms (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(10) The number of allegedly infected by coronavirus
(positively tested) was dramatically reported by the media all over the world, day
after day, without most people realizing that this number depends on the number
of tests performed.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
11) The number of CoV-2 deaths was reported even more
dramatically, without people realizing that even without the corona, 1% of the
population annually die (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">CS</a>),
so that about 270 people die every day in Czechia, Israel or Sweden, 1644 in
Italy and 9042 in the U.S. That is, out of 10 million inhabitants, 100,000 annually
die (with CoV-2 in 8 months it was only 400 in Czechia, 800 in Israel, 5800 in
Sweden); out of 60 million, 600 000 annually die (with CoV-2 in 8
months it was 35,000 in Italy); out of 330 million Americans, 3 300 000 die
annually (with CoV-2 in 8 months it was 176,000 in the U.S.). The hysteria around corona deaths was absurd. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(12) Only 1% of the people who die with CoV-2 have no other condition
(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hypertension-diabetes-conditions-that-make-coronavirus-more-deadly-2020-3">here</a></span>);
mainly people over the age of 65 and suffering from cancer, serious heart conditions, respiratory problems, diabetes and obesity die (CS). However, even the people with increased risk have mortality merely between 0.05% and 0.5%. The fear of corona is not justified. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(13) Mortality (deaths per million) on CoV-2 increases
exponentially with age, three times for every 10 years of age (CS), so younger
people do not die of CoV-2 without additional conditions, in contrast to influenza.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(14) The number of positively diagnosed by RT-PCR (Reverse
Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction) tests in developed countries on August
20 ranged from 0.1% of the population in Australia, to 0.2% in Czechia, 0.3 %
in Germany, 0.4% in Italy, 0.5% in Britain, 0.6% in Iceland, 0.7% in Belgium, 0.8%
in Spain and Sweden, 1.1 % in Israel, and 1.7% in the U.S. (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rpj5gCkxoo0D47xvFDMZeM7NcYFn-6Iu/view?usp=sharing">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(15) However, the number of actually infected was 10 to 100
times higher during the first half of the year, often 30 times higher, than the
number positively tested (CS), which corresponded to the infection fraction in
the above countries from 1% to 50% of the population.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(16) From fragmentary data on the antibodies measurement in
the blood (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632873-000-how-many-of-us-are-likely-to-have-caught-the-coronavirus-so-far/">here</a></span></span>
CS), the infection fraction in various areas in August can be assessed from a
few % in Japan to 50% in Sweden (CS), or almost 60% in Northern Italy (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/09/half-people-tested-italys-coronavirus-epicentre-bergamo-have/">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(17) The numbers of new infections and deaths in Italy have
been declining since April (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/">here</a></span>),
probably due to the higher achieved infection rates, and the numbers of deaths
have further been declining due to the growing experience of medical staff.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(18) Countries that allegedly "almost caught up"
all infected, including Japan and Australia, experienced a “second corona wave”
(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TCRSVEiWIZTiyWwaD1knx6uxCqFjBxkI/view?usp=sharing">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(19) Sweden, which avoided most of the restrictive measures,
was the 25th in the world in regard to the number of positively tested per
capita, and the 8th in the world in regard to the number of death per capita (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rpj5gCkxoo0D47xvFDMZeM7NcYFn-6Iu/view?usp=sharing">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(20) The fraction of the infected who die (lethality) is
between 0.01% and 1% in all countries, similar to influenza (the number of
deaths is divided by the number of actually infected, which is much higher than
the number of positively tested, see CS).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(21) Some differences in mortality rates (deaths per
million) between countries can be explained by different morbidity rates
(infections per million); other possible causes, including different levels of
health care, different human behavior, differences between virus strains, etc.,
are still awaiting detailed examination (CS).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(22) CoV-2, apart from the fact that children do not die
from it, does not differ much from influenza in many respects, including the numbers
of seasonal infections and deaths, and possibly also the number of people
without symptoms (CS).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(23) Even mild asymptomatic infection confers cellular
immunity against recurrent infection and thus contributes to the collective
immunity (<a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(24) Testing of a random sample of the population, RT-PCR of
nasal swabs and blood antibodies, would reveal the percentage of the currently
infected population and the percentage of the previously infected population.
Repeated testing would provide data on the spread of the disease and the infected
fraction of the population, which data is necessary to plan the way forward,
but surprisingly none of the 200 countries in the world have done such testing,
although the cost would be a small fraction of the cost of those confused tests.
It is said that "measuring healthy is useless", but measuring the
infected is just as useless – only measuring randomly selected people would
give the necessary information. Without such measurements, the green/ yellow/
red countries evaluations (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries">here</a></span>) are completely
meaningless. Countries that have tested the entire population (e.g. Luxembourg)
often had far more infections and deaths than countries that have measured
barely half a percent of people (such as Taiwan or Japan). Without a plan, all the
measurements have had no effect on anything. None of the 200 countries in the
world or the WHO have set out any strategy; some indicated that it was
necessary to break the infection chain and capture all the patients, but this
was not possible due to the many asymptomatic cases and due to the limited
number of tests; others decided to slow the spread of the disease, but the
length of the whole action could not be estimated without measuring the infection
fraction.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(25) In most countries, the management of the epidemic at
national level was carried out by opportunists rather than experts with broad
horizons; Western countries have shown that they are unable, either
individually or in cooperation, to solve global problems (CS).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(26) The reduced medical services provided during the corona
period will result in increased mortality from many conditions (untreated heart
attacks and cancers), the thoughtless isolation of the elderly, held without family
contacts, will take its toll too (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52461034">here</a></span>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(27) The only reasonable practice was and still is to keep
everything open and in action while protecting the weak from infection (instead
of 'smart quarantine' or 'peak flattening', masks are enough), which has not
been done anywhere. In almost all developed countries, medically useless measures
have been introduced, which have been economically and socially harmful (travel
bans, quarantine, etc.), but the weak have not been sufficiently protected, in
many countries including Sweden (CS).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(28) China has been providing incorrect data at all times (CS);
the West should draw scientific and political conclusions from the epidemic and
claim at least $ 5,000 billion in reparations from China (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">CS</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup>1</sup> Similarly, I have summarized the facts concerning the discussions
on climate change (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2018/04/climate-change-on-one-foot-concise.html">here</a></span>).</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">2</span></sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> Unfortunately, many links disappear over time.</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-57561265117711237152020-08-05T05:14:00.001+03:002020-08-08T16:46:26.119+03:00China Is Our Carthage – China's Influence Will Have to Be Weakened in Order for the West to Survive as a Democratic and Humane Culture<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Let's recall China's
modern history. Starting from the end, we can see that China has become the world's
second richest country in the 21st century (2000-2020), thanks to the hybrid blend
of communist terror with ruthlessness of early capitalism, resulting in ecologically
devastating its own territories and reducing the quality of consumer goods around
the world. During the preceding twenty-years (1980-2000), a gleam of hope for democratic development appeared, but it was stamped out after </span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">crushing </span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">the </span><span lang="EN">students
protest on Tiananmen square with 10,000 dead (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN"><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/tiananmen-square-massacre-anniversary-beijing-tank-man-china-protests-facts-death-toll-a8382111.html">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN">), as well as after suppressing a mass Buddhist movement,
Falun Gong, while imprisoning half a million and driving 70 million people into
illegality. About 65,000 Falun Gong members were killed and dismantled into organs
for transplants (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN">), including skin which was peeled from living people. Still
earlier, during the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), many millions of people were
killed in various "cultural" and "re-education" events; the
number of casualties is unknown, but it is known that people died of beating, beheading,
stoning, live burial, drowning, boiling, disemboweling, slicing off flesh, blowing
up with dynamite, and cutting out heart, livers or genitals; hundreds of people
were reportedly eaten (</span><u><span lang="EN" style="color: #954f72; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangxi_Massacre"><span style="color: #954f72;">here</span></a></span></u><span lang="EN">). And at the very beginning of the communist era (1949-1966),
people were dying by introducing socialist agriculture; most died in the era of
"big leap" between 1958 and 1960, when between 35 and 45 million people
starved to death, according to various estimates.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Let's get back to
the present. China has acquired all modern technologies from the willing West without
complying with the Western intellectual property laws. China acquires technologies from
returning students, by scientific cooperation, but also through espionage. Chinese
scientists now excel in all disciplines, including virology. For more than 7
years, the Chinese scientists have studied the bat coronaviruses (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">), being led by Wuhan coronavirus scientist Dr. Shi
Zheng-Li (called „batwoman“ by media). In 2015, a harmless bat coronavirus was
modified to be capable of infecting human cells (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">); the work was strongly criticized as a dangerous
“gain-of-function” experiment (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). In 2017, an article in the prestigious journal <i>Nature</i>
warned about the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV); the labs were built to
withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake, but the Western scientists worried
about possible escapes of the viruses even without any earthquake, in view of
known repeated escapes from the high-level containment facilities in China (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). In 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing warned the U.S.
government about safety and management weaknesses at the Wuhan WIV labs,
mentioning a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-wuhan-coronaviruses-lab-in-2018/">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> and </span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). Strangely, in September 2019, the Global Preparedness
Monitoring Board of the WHO, consisting mostly of Western scientists, including
Anthony Fauci, published an “Annual report on global preparedness for health
emergencies”, named “World at risk”, in which they “prophetically” warned about
having to be prepared for the worst in a possible rapidly spreading, lethal
respiratory pathogen pandemic (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_annualreport_2019.pdf">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). It turns out that the current epidemic started much
earlier than admitted by the Chinese authorities, possibly already in August
and September 2019 (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">, </span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270">here</a>, <a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">), so that one may guess that the above “prophetical”
Annual report might have been inspired by first indirect indications. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Incredible
sloppiness of the work in the Wuhan labs was indicated by the reports about
experimental animal appearing on the local meat market as some Chinese
researchers sell the laboratory animals to street vendors (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). Even Dr. Zheng-Li inadvertently admitted, in her
interview for <i>Scientific American </i>in February 2020, that she had
wondered whether the new virus could not originate from her laboratory (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">When the news
about the virus started to circulate toward the end of 2019, Chinese scientists
extremely quickly published the whole sequence of the new virus, its detailed properties,
and its relatedness to other coronaviruses in two articles published in <i>Nature</i>
on February 3; both articles located the disease origin to the local meat
market (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> and </span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7#Sec2">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). The first of the articles identified and totally
characterized an allegedly new unknown agent of an unknown disease from one
patient only within an incredibly short time of six days. The second article,
co-authored by Dr. Zheng-Li, independently also identified the new coronavirus,
and in addition announced existence of a bat virus having 96% homology with the
freshly discovered virus CoV-2 to suport its possible natural origin, said bat
virus having been known to the authors allegedly since 2013, even though never
been published. Reviewing the two <i>Nature</i> articles strongly suggests that
the authors knew the SARS-CoV-2 virus from their earlier research and not only from
victims of the epidemic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">At the
beginning, the Chinese government directed attention to the local meat market
as an animal source of the new virus, which could have evolved “naturally” in
exotic animals. The “natural origin” of the new virus was generally supported
by the mainstream media from the beginning, an example being condemnation of
any attempts to look for an artificial origin in <i>Guardian</i> on February 20,
2020: “Experts fear false rumors could harm Chinese cooperation on coronavirus”
(</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-false-rumours-experts">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). The scientific establishment has mostly been intimidated
to freely consider the origin of Covid-19; for example, the <i>Nature</i> editors
retroactively added a note to their article of 2017 saying that the theory of the
virus lab origin is unverified (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). <i>Lancet</i> of March 7, 2020 stated: “We stand
together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that Covid-19 does
not have a natural origin” (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). However, a research scientist of University of
California at Berkeley, Xiao Qiang, said bravely: “I don’t think it’s a
conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question that needs to be
investigated and answered... To understand exactly how this originated is
critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future” (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-wuhan-coronaviruses-lab-in-2018/">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> and </span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The fact is that
Cov-2 virus comprises unique structural features. For example, the RNA segment
coding for the spike protein, which binds to the human ACE2 receptor, was found
to have an insertion of 12 nucleotides, not found in any other coronavirus species,
resulting in four extra amino acids in positions 681-684 of the protein, allegedly
conferring CoV-2 increased contagiousness (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/4558-4564.pdf">here</a></span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). The origin of SARS-CoV-2 has not been explained so far;
its genome may have been artificially edited or not, but its escape from
Wuhan labs seems hardly refutable. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">For case the
meat market story will turn out false, China has created a fallback version for
the virus origin – unbelievably revealing that the Wuchan inhabitants had in
fact been infected with the Covid-19 disease by the United States (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html">here</a></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). Strangely enough, all Chinese accusations and
contradictions are quickly forgotten. Regimes like communist China today, or Nazi
Germany before WWII, can say anything and are forgiven – in order to maintain peace.
As in 1938, when the Nazis accused Jews, Austria, or Czechoslovakia of endangering
the German nation, and the world pretended to believe them, also today the
Chinese are “believed” when simultaneously accusing the U.S. and pangolins of
the same disease – the world believes them since it prefers truce to truth. </span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Appeasement needs
people who are cautious not to irritate the enemy, but it also requires useful
idiots who support ideas destructive for the Western society. There are a lot
of such useful people among the leftist or liberal politicians. For example, Charles
Michel, as Belgian Prime Minister (nowadays he is European Council president), decided
to destroy Belgium's entire strategic stock of 63 million protective face-masks
in 2015 to use the stock space for accommodating migrants (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15916/coronavirus-belgium-carnage">here</a></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">), which resulted in higher morbidity during the current
epidemic. Another example is provided by the Spanish leftist government, which organized
broad celebrations and a march on the Stalinist holiday of International Women
Day in March 2020, thereby contributing to quicker spread of the virus (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200527-spain-govt-under-fire-over-women-s-day-march-on-eve-of-outbreak">here</a></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). When the epidemic started in Italy, the social
democratic Florence mayor, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dario
Nardella, asked the residents to hug Chinese people in the streets to
“encourage them in their fight against the novel coronavirus” (</span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html">here</a></span><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">). </span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The debate about
the origin of the virus is legitimate, and it is immoral to fear that China will
be offended, after the atrocities the Communist Party of China has committed, and in the time when a million people are tortured in the Chinese concentration camps (<a href="https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-a-million-people-are-jailed-at-china-s-gulags-i-escaped-here-s-what-goes-on-inside-1.7994216">here</a>). It
is certain that the virus originates form the Wuchan laboratories; the first
question is whether the virus had been artificially modified in the labs, and
the second question is whether the virus escaped due to criminal negligence, or
whether it was released on purpose. Let's hope the last scenario is not real, but
nothing can be ruled out until China will not have satisfactorily answered the questions.
This is not about inciting hatred against the Chinese people; they suffer from the
terrorist regime too. Also threatened are people of Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and
even Nepal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Nowadays, all
the production is being transferred to China, which, however, often closes its
markets to the others. The West loses its self-sufficiency, while having to
consume Chinese products of lower quality. The economic help to the developing
countries, as well as budgets of global organizations including UNO, WHO, or
WIPO, are paid by the democratic countries, but both the developing countries and
the organizations are still more under the Chinese influence. The Western world
has long been weakened by the pro-Chinese propaganda, as well as by political
correctness and green measures. We need not fear of viruses but of low standard
of our technical education. The Western society should start promoting
technical education and exact sciences over pure humanities and politics to
strengthen capitalism and democracy, and to be ready for facing still more difficult
problems of the future. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The current
pandemic has frozen the whole world outside China, as if the invisible hand of
panic was trying to cripple the normal life and economy of the world. With the morbidity
and mortality not too different from flu epidemics (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">here</a>), one wonders how our society
will react when a virus with a 90% mortality rate appears, or when an
earthquake occurs in more parts of the world, or when a big asteroid hits the
Earth. Surely, the West will have to unite and gather courage to strengthen its
independence on China, and then to use the remnants of its economic, scientific
and moral superiority to force China to move to more openness. However, we will
also have to convince our fellow citizens who are looking for something good about
China's "successful communism", that the Chinese leadership is completely
unscrupulous and has a psychology entirely strange to us, and that the People’s
Republic of China is not only an economic threat but that it is an existential
danger to the entire Western world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Let us not
forget that never during the whole history have people gone through a global
lockdown, with state borders closed. Even the greatest political terrors have
not closed people at home or banned on visiting parents and grandparents.
Prayers in churches and synagogues have not been stopped for thousands years,
even in the darkest ages. Therefore, scientific and political conclusions will
have to be drawn from the COVID-19 epidemic. At least minimal reparations should
be claimed from the PRC.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">An influential senator in the antic Rome, Marcus Cato, famously related to the city of Carthage which threatened Rome's power around 150 BC: "Carthage must be destroyed", after which Carthage was erased in 146 BC. We could say today that China is our Carthage.
China cannot be destroyed, but its influence must be weakened in order for the West
to survive as a democratic and humane culture.</span><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-4773731235299367642020-08-01T01:07:00.002+03:002021-11-01T18:45:25.075+02:005’-UTR of Coronaviruses Mutates Twice Slower Than the Whole Genome, SARS-CoV-2 Does Not Differ in This Respect<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed;">
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<u>CORONAVIRUSES</u><o:p></o:p></div>
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Coronaviruses,
particularly betacoronaviruses, belong among usual causative agents of the
common cold and respiratory infection symptoms, together with common cold picornavirus,
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold#cite_note-31"></a>influenza viruses,
adenoviruses, human respiratory syncytial virus, and parainfluenza viruses. Newly
appeared strains caused epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), virus SARS-CoV-1 in 2003 and virus SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 (reviewed <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/07/a-half-year-of-covid-19-pandemic-spread.html">here</a>).<br />
<a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<u><br /></u>
<u>PANDEMIC
ORIGIN</u></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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In view of
15 million diagnosed cases and 600,000 death caused by CoV-2 by 20 July 2020, tens
of thousands of publications try to elucidate the origin of the new
coronavirus, which is known to be hosted by many mammals, and specifically by
bats and pangolins in China. The virus has been broadly studied in China since
2003, and many new strains have been reported, some of them artificially
prepared (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>).
Attempts to explain the path from an animal host to human have not been
successful. The closest animal coronavirus published so far, Bat CoV RaTG13,
has 96% RNA homology (also called % similarity or % identity). As the epidemic
started close to the high security Virology Institute in Wuhan, an escape route
from the laboratory is among the considered scenarios, also in view of the
numerous such cases and the low level of security in the Chinese laboratories (<a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>,
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>),
and in view of the known cases of selling the animals from the labs to meat
market (<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>);
an escape was considered also by the director of the coronavirus laboratory in
Wuhan, Dr. Zheng-Li Shi (<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<u>POSSIBLE UNIQUE STRUCTURAL FEATURES IN SARS-CoV-2<o:p></o:p></u></div>
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Naturally,
the first structural feature considered as important for high infectivity is the
protein sequence of the spike protein, which binds to the human receptor ACE2. It
was found that an insertion of 12-nucleotides into the viral RNA resulted in
four extra amino acids in positions 681-684 of the spike protein which may have
improved contagiousness of the virus; these four extra residues are unique to
this human virus and are not found in any other species (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span color="windowtext"><a href="https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/4558-4564.pdf">here</a></span></span>).
Additional elements seem to be highly important for the virus, including the
envelope protein E, which seems very conservative, many coronaviruses having 100%
homology in the protein amino acid sequence, but CoV-2 seems to be rather different (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span color="windowtext"><a href="https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1008421&type=printable">here</a></span></span>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
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Thus,
CoV-2 does differ from other coronaviruses in various aspects. Other regions of
the viral RNA have been considered as the source of CoV-2 special properties,
including the first 265 bases in the 5’-untranslated region (5’-UTR). The
current text examines whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus
differs from other coronaviruses in the mutation rate (mutation
extent, diversity) of its the 5’-UTR.</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<u><span lang="CS">COMPARING THE MUTATION RATE IN </span></u><u><span lang="CS">THE </span></u><u>5’-UTR WITH THE MUTATION RATE IN </u><u><span lang="CS">THE WHOLE
GENOME FOR SEVERAL </span></u><u>CORONAVIRUSES</u></div>
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<br />
The
sequences of several coronaviruses are compared here using BLAST of NCBI (<span class="MsoHyperlink"><span color="windowtext"><a href="https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?BLAST_SPEC=blast2seq&LINK_LOC=align2seq&PAGE_TYPE=BlastSearch">here</a></span></span>),
and the divergence among their 5’-UTR segments is compared with the divergence among their whole genomes, thereby examining the question whether the starting segment of 260 bases is more conserved than the whole genome in coronaviruses. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The following
11 frequently mentioned coronaviruses are considered (accession numbers and the
publishing date are given):<o:p></o:p></div>
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1. SARS-CoV-2
(<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT192773"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">MT192773</span></a>),
Mar 2020, <o:p></o:p></div>
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2. Bat coronavirus
(<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/DQ648857"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">DQ648857</span></a>),
2005, <o:p></o:p></div>
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3. Bat SARS-like
coronavirus (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/GQ153547"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">GQ153547</span></a>),
2010, <o:p></o:p></div>
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4. SARS-CoV-2
(<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT764166"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">MT764166.1</span></a>),
Jul 2020, <o:p></o:p></div>
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5. Bat CoV
RaTG13 (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN996532"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">MN996532.1</span></a>),
Jan 2020, so far closest to CoV-2,<o:p></o:p></div>
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6. Human coronavirus
OC43 (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/NC_005147.1?report=genbank"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">NC005147.1</span></a>),
2005, mild common cold symptoms, <o:p></o:p></div>
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7. SARS-CoV-1
SIN25000 (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/AY283794"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">AY283794.1</span></a>),
2003, 1st SARS epidemic, <o:p></o:p></div>
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8. Human CoV
229E (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MF542265"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">MF542265.1</span></a>),
2016, mild common cold symptoms.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
9. Bat SARS-like
coronavirus (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MG772934.1"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">MG772934.1</span></a>),
2018,<o:p></o:p></div>
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10. Bat SARS-like
coronavirus SHC014 (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/KC881005"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">KC881005</span></a>),
2013, replicates in human but is not virulent,<o:p></o:p></div>
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11. Mouse SARS-like
coronavirus SARS-CoV MA-15 (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/DQ497008"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">DQ49700.8</span></a>), 2007, virulent
in mouse and converted to human-virulent by</div>
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incorporating the spike from bat SHC014,
making chimera SHC014-MA15 in 2015. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Doublets
formed from the above genomes, xth and yth, are compared below (x,y) by BLAST to
obtain the homology (% identity) in their whole genomes, as well as in their
first 260 bases. The genome sizes n1 and n2 of the compared viruses are given below (n1/n2), followed by homology h1% in the whole sequence, and homology h2% in
the 260 base segment of the 5’-UTR. The mutation extent may be characterized by
% divergence, i.e. % fraction of differing sequences (1 – h); so that if
homology is 90%, the divergence is 10%. Ratio <i>R</i> of the divergence in the 260
base segment and the divergence in the whole RNA genome is calculated and given in the
curly brackets below:</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<i>R</i> = (100 -
h2)/(100 - h1).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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In the
first stage, CoV-2 is compared with several other coronaviruses, and in the
second stage, various non-CoV-2 coronaviruses are compared to each other:<o:p></o:p></div>
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CoV-2 vs others<o:p></o:p></div>
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(x,y) n1/n2 h1 h2 <i>R</i><o:p></o:p></div>
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></div>
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(1,2) 29890/29741 81.12% 90.31% {0.51}<o:p></o:p></div>
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(1,3) 29890/29704 80.85% 90.31% {0.60}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,4) 29890/29902 99.92% 98.85%<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,5) 29890/29855 96.11% 96.75% {0.84}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,6) 29855/30738 65.28% n.d.
<o:p></o:p></div>
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(1,7) 29890/29711 80.26% 90.16% {0.50}<o:p></o:p></div>
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(4,7) 29902/29711 80.24% 89.39% {0.54}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,8) 29890/27271 64.19% n.d.<o:p></o:p></div>
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(1,9) 29890/29732 87.22% 93.75% {0.49}<o:p></o:p></div>
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(1,10) 29890/29787 80.56% 89.49% {0.54}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,11) 29890/29726 80.24% 89.88% {0.52}<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Non-CoV-2 vs
each other<o:p></o:p></div>
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(x,y) n1/n2 h1 h2 <i>R</i><o:p></o:p></div>
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></div>
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(2,3) 29741/29704 90.32% 96.11% {0.40}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(2,5) 29741/29855 80.90% 89.87% {0.53}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(2,7) 29741/29711 89.59% 95.51% {0.43}<o:p></o:p></div>
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(2,9) 29741/29732 82.03% 88.49% {0.64}<o:p></o:p></div>
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(3,5) 29704/29855 80.83% 89.54% {0.55}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(3,7) 29704/29711 89.25% 97.17% {0.26}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(3,9) 29704/29732 83.21% 88.03% {0.71}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(5,6) 29855/30738 65.50% n.d.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(5,7) 29855/29711 80.12% 89.96% {0.51}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(5,9) 29855/29732 87.13% 95.12% {0.38}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(5,10) 29855/29787 80.45% 88.94% {0.57}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(5,11) 29855/29726 80.10% 89.36% {0.53}<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(6,7) 30738/29711 66.35% n.d. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(6,8) 30738/27271 65.89% n.d. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(7,9) 29711/29732 81.26% 87.76% {0.65}<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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It can be
seen that the common cold-like viruses 6 and 8 are most different from all
other viruses and from each other as well, corresponding to their great
evolutionary distance; BLAST could not determine homology % for their short 260
segments (n.d.). The closest to each other, of course, are two CoV-2, viruses 1
and 4, even though they are not identical. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;">
The mutual
homologies (% identities) h1 among the genomes of different coronavirus species
are in the range of 65% to 96% (= 4% to 35% divergences). The two closest species
in the group (except for two CoV-2 viruses 1 and 4 having 99.9% homology) are
human SARS-CoV-2 and bat CoV-RaTG13 (viruses 1,5), having 96.1% common
sequences. Such a difference in coronaviruses may correspond up to about 100
years of normal separate evolution (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>),
but quicker events can be considered, including recombination, accelerated
mutation rate, or artificial intervention. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;">
The homologies
h2 among the 5’-UTR segments are always higher than
corresponding h1 values (except for doublets comprising two
CoV-2 strains or remote viruses 6 and 8). Shortly, the coronavirus mutation
extent of the 5’-UTR is lower than the mutation extent of the whole genome, which
confirms the importance of the starting segment. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
<u>COMPARING COV-2 WITH OTHER CORONAVIRUSES IN REGARD TO THE </u><u>5’-UTR DIVERGENCE</u></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
<u>Sequence
divergence % of </u><o:p></o:p><u>5’-UTR</u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;">
When
comparing the mutation extents in the 5’-UTR and the whole genome, (1 - h1)/(1
- h2), the ratios <i>R</i> of about 0.5 are obtained, showing that the RNA mutations
occur in the initial segment twice as slowly as in the whole genome.
Specifically, <i>R</i> values comprising CoV-2 are in the range of 0.49 to 0.84, the
mean value being 0.57; <i>R</i> values comprising only non-CoV-2 viruses are in the
range of 0.26 to 0.71, the mean value being 0.52. Thus, CoV-2 exhibits slightly
higher mutation extent in the 5’-UTR than the other coronaviruses, but the
difference is not too significant. The difference of 0.05 (<span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">D</span>R=0.57-0.52) between the
group comprising CoV-2 and the group comprising only other viruses is too small
in relation to the whole observed <i>R</i> range of 0.26 to 0.84; moreover, the ranges
of both groups, 0.26-0.71 and 0.49-0.84, broadly overlap. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Importantly,
<i>R</i> for doublet (1,7) is 0.50, and <i>R</i> for doublet (4,7) is 0.54. So that <span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">D</span>R for two groups that both
comprise CoV-2 (two different strains of CoV-2) is 0.04. Consequently, the
difference <span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-symbol-font-family: Symbol;">D</span>R of
0.05 for two groups, of which one comprises CoV-2 and one not, is not
significant. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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By the
way, two strains of CoV-2 (1,4) differ in their 5’-UTR segments more than in
their whole genomes, which may or may not result from slight sequencing errors.
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Thus, SARS-CoV-2 does not differ from other coronaviruses in the mutation rate of its
5’-UTR, when measured by the sequence divergence of 5’-UTR relatively to the
whole genome.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<u>Nucleotide
replacements in </u><o:p></o:p><u>5’-UTR</u></div>
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The numbers
of base changes (NBC) in the first 260 bases were compared as follows. A doublet
from the CoV-2 group, and a doublet from the non-CoV-2 group to be compared, were
chosen, so that both have nearly the same overall genome homology h1; the NBC were then calculated for each of the doublets from the values of h2. For
example, CoV-2 comprising doublet (1,9) has h1 of 87.22%, and non-CoV-2
comprising doublet (5,9) has nearly the same h1 of 87.13%; the NBC values are
calculated from h2 = (100-h2)*260/100,
namely:</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
NBC(1,9) = (100-93.75)*260/100
= 16 for CoV-2 doublet, and <o:p></o:p></div>
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NBC(5,9) = (100-95.12)*260/100
= 13 for non-CoV-2 doublet. <o:p></o:p></div>
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It means
that SARS-CoV-2 differs from bat coronavirus MT192773 in 16 bases of 260 in the
5’-UTR, whereas two other coronaviruses 5 and 9 (having also about 87% genome
homology) differ from each other in 13 bases of 260 in the 5’-UTR. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Four possible doublets among the considered cases provided four comparisons as follows:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,2) of 81.12
%h versus (7,9) of 81.26 %h: NBC = 25 bases for CoV-2 versus 32 for non-CoV-2<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,3) of 80.85
%h versus (3,5) of 80.83 %h: NBC = 25 bases for CoV-2 versus 27 for non-CoV-2<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,7) of 80.26
%h versus (5,7) of 80.12 %h: NBC = 26 bases for CoV-2 versus 26 for non-CoV-2<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; unicode-bidi: embed;">
(1,9) of 87.22
%h versus (5,9) of 87.13 %h: NBC = 16 bases for CoV-2 versus 13 for non-CoV-2<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" dir="LTR" style="direction: ltr; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify; unicode-bidi: embed;">
When comparing CoV-2 with non-Cov-2, the divergence of 5’-UTR was higher in CoV-2 in 1 case (16 bases versus 13 bases), was the same in CoV-2 and non-CoV-2 in 1 case (26 versus
26), and was lower in CoV-2 in 2 cases (25 versus 27, and 25 versus 32). All these
differences between CoV-2 and non-Cov-2 are in accordance with random changes,
and the differences do not imply unexpected increased mutation changes in
5’-UTR of CoV-2 (for example, when the probabilities of the base differences are
evaluated by using the Poisson distribution, or otherwise). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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So, SARS-CoV-2 does not differ from other coronaviruses in the mutation rate of its
5’-UTR, when measured by the number of base changes.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>Insertions – deletions</u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The alignment of 5’-segments of 260-bases shows, for CoV-2
virus 1 and non-CoV-2 virus 2, one 2-base deletion and one 1-base insertion,
beside 25 single base replacements. The alignment for two non-CoV-2 viruses,
viruses 7 and 9, shows one 2-base deletion, one 2-base insertion, and one
one-base insertion, beside about 32 single base replacements. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to differ from other coronaviruses
in the mutation rate of its 5’-UTR, when assessed by the deletion-insertion
events in 5’-UTR.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br /></div>
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<u>CONCLUSIONS</u></div>
</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
The origin
of SARS-CoV-2 has not been explained so far, the same as the origin of
SARS-CoV-1. Although escape of CoV-2 from one of the Wuhan labs seems hardly refutable,
the origin of its genome remains unclear. The genome may have been artificially
edited or not; many publications relate to the mysterious origin of the virus
(for example, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098222030662X"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054935/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>, <a href="https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/4558-4564.pdf"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139247/"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here</span></a>, <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins"><span color="windowtext" style="text-decoration-line: none;">here)</span></a>,
and while not supporting a possible artificial intervention in its structure,
their findings do not disprove such intervention, and still less an eventual
lab escape. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Whatever
the origin of the CoV-2 genome sequence, the comparison of the mutation rate in
its 5’-untranslated region with other coronaviruses does not indicate any
unexpected difference. <span style="color: red;">The mutation is about twice slower in the 5’-UTR than in
the whole genome for all checked coronaviruses, but the results do not indicate
that SARS-CoV-2 is less conservative in its 5’-UTR than other coronaviruses. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-68048261123069777172020-07-30T23:58:00.007+03:002020-11-26T23:50:44.121+02:00A Half-Year Summary of COVID-19 Pandemic – Spread, Course, Comparing Countries, Handling in the World, SARS-Cov-2 Virus and Its Origin, Consequences, and the Way Out<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><b>Spreading of the epidemic over the globe – at one look </b></u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The WHO started to report about the coronavirus on 21 January
2020, when 309 cases were allegedly diagnosed in China, including 6 deaths; no cases
in other countries were reported by then. The numbers of diagnosed cases in 15 selected
countries over the first half of the year 2020 are presented in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>, which further includes
the numbers of new daily cases, the sum of deaths and new daily deaths (extracted from the WHO web <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports">here</a>),
as well as the number of tests (extracted from the<br />
<a name='more'></a>WORLDOMETERS web <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">here</a>). The values
per million people and some other parameters have been calculated for the table.
The values are given in two-week intervals from Feb 4 till May 26, and later in
one-month intervals till July 21. The countries are arranged according to the increasing
number of positive cases per million people found by June 23. <u>TABLE 1 SHOWS NEARLY
ALL ABOUT THE 2020 PANDEMIC AT ONE LOOK</u>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The first cases outside China were reported on January 25, wherein
the U.S., Asian and European countries reported between 1 and 20 cases in February
4. The maximal growth rates can be seen in the following dates: from February 4
to February 18 in Singapore; from February 18 to March 3 in Korea, Japan and Italy;
and from March 3 to March 17 in Australia, Spain, Germany, France, Britain, Switzerland,
Israel, Czechia, US, and Sweden. The fortnight maximal growth rates comprise between
4 fold and 100 fold jumps. The highest rate values are probably affected by a sudden
increase of the available tests, and the lowest rate values result from the applied
protection measures. The first deaths were reported in various countries with delays
corresponding to the spread course, somewhere between February 18 and March 3, and
even as late as on March 17 or March 31. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The disease is called <i><b><u>COVID‑19</u></b> </i>(<b><u><i>CO</i></u></b>rona <b><u><i>VI</i></u></b>rus <b><u><i>D</i></u></b>isease starting
in 20<u><b><i>19</i></b></u>). The virus is called <b><u><i>SARS‑CoV‑2</i></u></b> (<b><u><i>S</i></u></b>evere <b><u><i>A</i></u></b>cute <b><u><i>R</i></u></b>espiratory <b><u><i>S</i></u></b>yndrome caused
by <b><u><i>Co</i></u></b>rona <u><b><i>V</i></b></u>irus, <b><u><i>2</i></u></b>nd epidemics after the 2002 first SARS epidemics). Both the virus
and the disease may be shortly called corona. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Viruses and coronavirus </u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Virus is a submicroscopic entity that replicates inside the cells
of its specific host. It consists of one or more molecules of nucleic acid bearing
the genetic information and protective proteins, forming a particle (virion) having
dimensions usually between 20 and 1000 nm, sometimes enveloped with a lipid layer
derived from its host. The viruses have probably coexisted and coevolved with all
cellular living forms since the beginning 3.8 billion years ago and, as with all parasites, their harmfulness
had to be kept at reasonable levels not to wipe out their hosts. Some viruses have
been incorporated into the genomes of the hosts, and the incorporated DNA has sometimes
acquired important functions in the host; about 8% of the human genome DNA originates
from viruses. All living organisms have their specific viruses, from bacteria to
plants and animals. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Viruses are divided into groups according to the type of their
nucleic acid, which can be RNA or DNA, single-stranded or double-stranded, see Table 2 below; <u>the Table concisely
describes the properties of the viruses and the history of important discoveries</u>.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv3Dcv2ZxbS9uEf5SZsu41R9Yxlkpba5aBbw0zKPRIKihx01XbVqdVg39xbFpUAFm9SVjHSNZXejztC-h3rYZjIMLQbjxGR79EIB6CmN1Ps9zk8Ci5H5NzDiqCDUVRB0kJrvXIuaDRnMA/s1650/tab+2+jpg.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1275" data-original-width="1650" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv3Dcv2ZxbS9uEf5SZsu41R9Yxlkpba5aBbw0zKPRIKihx01XbVqdVg39xbFpUAFm9SVjHSNZXejztC-h3rYZjIMLQbjxGR79EIB6CmN1Ps9zk8Ci5H5NzDiqCDUVRB0kJrvXIuaDRnMA/w640-h494/tab+2+jpg.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><i>Coronaviridae</i> is a family of single-stranded RNA viruses, positive-sense (it means
that the RNA can directly serve as a messenger RNA to make proteins), enveloped,
having one RNA molecule 26,000 to 32,000 bases long; their spherical virion is decorated
with conspicuous protein projections which look like the solar corona in electron
micrographs.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Coronaviruses, particularly betacoronaviruses, cause 10-30% cases
of common cold-like symptoms and respiratory infection symptoms, caused also by
rhinoviruses, influenza viruses, adenoviruses, human respiratory syncytial virus,
and parainfluenza viruses (<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/12/10/1911083116.full.pdf">here</a>,
<a href="https://influenza.rki.de/Wochenberichte/2019_2020/2020-13.pdf">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/">here</a>). Newly
appeared coronaviruses strains caused epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) in 2002-2004 and in 2019, the virus of the former epidemic being now called
SARS-CoV-1 (shortly Cov-1) and of the latter SARS-CoV-2 (shortly CoV-2). Virus CoV-2
differs from CoV-1 in 20% RNA sequences, and from common cold-like coronavirus HCoV-OC43
in 35% RNA sequences, but from the closest known coronaviruse, bat CoV RaTG13, only
in 4% RNA sequences. Coronaviruses infect many mammals, like bats or cattle, and
rarely pass to humans, but in the case of both SARS epidemics, as well as the MERS epidemic
of 2012, the virus emerged from an animal reservoir, comprising in some stages the
bats.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
RNA viruses mutate quite quickly, usually collecting at least
about 4<span face=""calibri" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt;">×10</span><sup style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">−4</sup> substitutions per site per year (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/">here</a>, <a href="https://jvi.asm.org/content/84/19/9733">here</a>, <a href="https://jvi.asm.org/content/80/7/3675">here</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC446188/">here</a>), which for coronavirus of
30,000 bases makes at least 12 changed bases per genome per year (one mutation per
month), resulting in 4% RNA sequence change within 100 years. However, CoV-2 seems
to mutate at least twice as quickly, but strangely the reports mostly note that
CoV-2 mutates relatively slowly (<a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/pandemic-virus-slowly-mutating-it-getting-more-dangerous">here</a>),
or slower than influenza virus; however, two fold higher mutation was reported (<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-genome-is-like-a-shipping-label-that-lets-epidemiologists-track-where-its-been-136826">here</a>),
or even four fold higher mutation rate has been shown (i.e. 4 per months, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/virus-mutations-reveal-how-covid-19-really-spread1/">here</a>).
The combinations of various mutations make hundreds of existing strains, reflecting
the history of their spread over the globe. Some mutations are believed to affect
the pathogenicity or infectivity and other viral properties (<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v2">here</a>, <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-mutation-coronavirus-infect-human-cells.html">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.148726v1">here</a>),
so that differences in the disease course in various countries might be partially
explained this way.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
High RNA sequence variability may reduce the danger of cross-reactions
with other corona species during testing, but may increase the danger of more false
negative results. Also, the immunization against the new CoV-2 by previous corona
infections seems less probable for the same reason. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As for the stability of the coronaviruses outside the human body,
the virus can remain infectious for human lung cells even after 5 days on common
non-biocidal surfaces (not hot or dry or sunny), including PTFE, PVC, ceramic tiles,
glass, silicone rubber, and stainless steel (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4659470/">here</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Diagnosis, symptoms, treatment</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Cov-2 is diagnosed by RT-PCR tests, which identify the viral
RNA in a swab taken from patient’s nose or throat within several days after the
infection till about two weeks; the enzyme reverse transcriptase (RT) firstly converts
the viral RNA to complementary DNA and then multiplies the DNA by polymerase chain
reaction (PCR) to enable its detection. During the first months of 2020, the tests
were hardly available and great logistic problems were met in most countries. The
numbers of performed tests started to be available for most countries from April
(<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">WORLDOMETERS</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The number of positively tested (see <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>) surely reflected the
increasing number of available test kits. Immunoassay detecting antibodies against
CoV-2 proteins can reveal the previous infection. The sensitivity and specificity
of all above tests are reported to be between 70-100%, usually at least 90%, depending
on their origin (<a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-tests-work.html">here</a>).
Chest CT was reported as a reliable diagnostic tool at the beginning of the epidemic,
stating 98% sensitivity versus 71% sensitivity of an RT-PCR test (<a href="https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642">here</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
About 80% infected people have no symptoms or do not realize
any symptoms (<a href="https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/01/asymptomatic-patients">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53320155">here</a>, <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus">here</a>).
The patients having symptoms exhibit at least one of fever, cough, shortness of
breath, and fatigue. In rare cases, blood clots formation is reported. Opacities
on chest CT scans are observed. More serious reactions are observed mainly in patients
with underlying conditions, including cancer, hypertension, pulmonary diseases,
diabetes, obesity, or in immunocompromised patients and elderly patients. The reactions
include acute respiratory syndrome, cytokine storm and lung injury. <u>In a group of
deceased patients, it was reported that 49% of them had 3 other underlying conditions,
25% had 2 other conditions, while 25% had 1 other condition, and only 1% did not suffer
from a known other condition</u> (<a href="https://www.wodarg.com/">here</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hypertension-diabetes-conditions-that-make-coronavirus-more-deadly-2020-3">here</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Treatment of serious cases includes blood clots prevention (e.g.
by heparin) and improving oxygen saturation (ventilation), while measuring, among
others, blood D-dimer and CRP; steroids (e.g. dexamethasone) or IL6 inhibitors for
treating cytokine storm are employed, and antivirals are attempted, including remdesivir
or hydroxychloroquine. About 2600 clinical studies associated with COVID-19 ran
by July 16 (<a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=Covid19&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=">here</a>),
and more than a hundred companies have been developing a vaccine against CoV-2.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><b>Person to person spreading rate</b></u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a> nicely shows the exponential growth of the case numbers within the fortnight
periods, in the stages when the
tests were already available but no strong protective measures were in effect yet; the growth seems to
have an exponent of about 10 (see, for example, Australian case numbers between
March 3 and March 31, being 33, 375, 4359). Tenfold increase of the cases within
14 days would approximately correspond to one patient infecting three people in
one week if no restrictions are imposed (√10 = cca 3.2), which is a reasonable assumption
in view of about one-week long infectivity. This is also supported by the spreading
rate observed in Ecuador, where the first case woman arrived on Feb 14, being detected
on Feb 29, and dead on March 13, resulting in 1595 cases on March 27 (<a href="https://www.gestionderiesgos.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/INFOGRAFIA-NACIONALCOVI-19-COE-NACIONAL-27032020-10h00.pdf">here</a>);
if she was the only arrived case, we can calculate the number of people onto which
one infected person passed the virus during the chain action there („reproduction
number“) within one week, as we know that 1595 were infected within 6 weeks (15
days in Feb + 27 days in Mar = 42 d = 6 weeks); if one infects <i>x</i> people in one week,
it will be <i><span face=""calibri" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt;">x</span></i><sup><span face=""calibri" , sans-serif"><span style="font-size: x-small;">6</span></span></sup> in 6 weeks (<i><span face=""calibri" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt;">x</span></i><sup><span face=""calibri" , sans-serif"><span style="font-size: x-small;">6</span></span></sup> = 1595), providing <i>x</i> = 3.4 (close to the above value
3.2), so that again one person would infect about 3 persons in a week without applied restrictions. The <u>value of 3 people being infected by one person within a week, derived from Table 1, is in a good accordance with the generally estimated value of the
reproduction number of about 3 for SARS-CoV-2</u> (e.g. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139247/">here</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523">here</a>). After introducing protecting
measures, the jumps in the total number of infected people within a fortnight period
decreased to 4 or 2 or even less (see <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>), corresponding to a
reduced reproduction number of (√2=1,4=) between 1 and 2. For comparison, measles
has a reproduction number of 15 in a non-immunized population, influenza between
1 and 2 (<a href="https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480">here</a>).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Morbidity, mortality, lethality, infected population fraction
(IPF)</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The number of afflicted by a disease per million people (or per
100,000, or per hundred = %) is called morbidity, the number of deceased per million
people is called mortality, the fraction of afflicted who die (in %) is called lethality.
When there are clear symptoms, the said parameters can be simply determined. For
example, the smallpox morbidity in the 1950th was 20 000 per million (= 2% world
population), the mortality being about 12 000 per million, and the lethality being
about (12000 /20000 =) 60% of the infected. However, corona seems to result in noticeable
symptoms only in 20% infected people, so that the <u>the reported number of positively
diagnosed people is at least five times lower than the number of really infected
people</u>; the difference would be still higher since many even symptomatic people
do not come to be tested, not speaking about up to 30% infected people who may be
falsely diagnosed as negative (see <a href="https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642">here</a>). From the beginning
of the current epidemic, <u>the real number of the infected (real morbidity) has seemed
to be 10 to 100 times higher</u> (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/german-covid-19-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-official-figures">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us">here</a>,
<a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-excess-mortality-figures-in-italy-d9640f411691">here</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-know-how-many-people-have-the-coronavirus-test-randomly-135784">here</a>),
<u>usually about 30 times higher, than the number of positively diagnosed</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The population fraction in % which has been infected (sometimes called infection rate) is called
here IPF for brevity (Infected Population Fraction). IPF is the sum of real morbidity
in % and mortality in %, but IPF approximately equals to the real morbidity %, as
mortality can be neglected relatively to morbidity in case of COVID-19. The value
of IPF can be assessed from antibodies measurements, as they approximately show
the population fraction having been exposed to COVID-19 from the beginning of the
epidemics to about ten days before the measurement (it takes about ten days to form
the antibodies). The few published antibody survey values, roughly corresponding
to IPF, are incorporated in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table
1</a> (blue-marked “morbidity % by antibody survey” in the penultimate column);
they are affected by a great error (and seems to hold only for a part of the country
in some cases), ranging in various countries between 0.2% and 30% in April-May (the
more updated IPF values can be estimated from the previous ones by increasing them
proportionally to the increased apparent morbidity). Dividing these “real” morbidity
values by the “apparent” morbidity values for the same date yielded a ratio (pink
values <i>M</i> in the table, placed in the line of June 23) of between 2 and 93 for various
countries, mostly between 10 and 50, which is consistent with the above approximation
of 30 for the ratio of the real morbidity and apparent morbidity.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>
gives, for selected countries, the numbers of positively diagnosed cases per million
people (blue values in the 4th column), corresponding to the apparent morbidity;
for example on June 23, the values range from about 140 per million (= 0.01% population)
in Japan to about 7,000 per million (= 0.7% population) in the U.S. The apparent
% morbidity should be multiplied by a factor of at least 10 to get a more precise
assessment of IPF, as explained above, and in most cases even by a factor of 30.
The numbers of positive cases per 100 tests (yellow numbers in the next to last
column in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>) provide
a closer estimation of IPF than the apparent morbidity (and approach the real value
of IPF as the number of performed tests increases). The number of positive cases
per 100 tests within the last month (red numbers in the next to last column) may
also delimit the IPF estimation (after multiplying by the number of previous one-month
measurement periods, as the value reflects only the last month infections). Of course,
the more people have been tested, the closer the apparent morbidity in %, as well
as the number of positive cases per 100 tests, is to the real morbidity. If employing
the factor of 30, the real morbidities would be about 6000 per million (=0.6%=IPF) in Japan and about 340,000 per million (=34%=IPF) in the U.S. by July
21<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>
gives the numbers of deaths with corona for said countries, the mortality ranging
from less than 4 to about 600 per million on June 23; the corresponding apparent
lethality, called also crude lethality (= mortality/ apparent morbidity), ranges
from 0.1% in Singapore to as high as 19% in France (black numbers in the next to
last column). However, real lethality, L, is lower, as the real morbidity (really
infected) is higher than the apparent morbidity as mentioned: L = apparent lethality/M.
The estimated values of L are presented in Table 1 (bold black values in the last column).
In most cases, the real lethality values fall into a range of 0.1% to 1%. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Measuring the fraction of people
exhibiting RT-PCR positive test (fresh infection) and anti-corona antibody
positive test (previous infection) in random population samples would provide a more accurate picture of the
epidemic course. However, <u>incomprehensibly and irrationally, all countries have
hindered well-controlled, systematic and repeated population testing in random samples </u>during the epidemic’ first half of year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Herd immunity</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It is supposed that the infection provides protection (immunity)
against next infection for some time at least (<a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20200527-french-study-finds-even-mild-covid-19-infections-produce-protective-antibodies">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immunity-to-the-coronavirus-what-we-know-and-dont-know-2020-4">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext">here</a>),
even though the stability of the protective immunoglobulins remains to be determined
(<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w">here</a>). A sufficiently
<u>high fraction of the immunized people in the population, 60-90%, is supposed to
render the population with “herd immunity”</u>, as the disease spreading slows down
and the disease eventually peters out due to the decreasing amount of susceptible
people, in accordance with the spreading kinetics (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function">here</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Roughly, the increase of the fraction of infected people with
time (spreading rate), dP/Pdt, is proportional to the fraction of people that still
can be infected, 1 - P/K (P is the number of infected people, K is the maximum number
of people that can be infected): <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
dP/dt = P * R * (1 - P/K),<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
wherein the proportionality constant R, called growth rate, corresponds
to the above reproduction number, if no protective measures are taken and at the
beginning of the epidemic (about 3 for corona). If zero people are infected, P=0,
the disease spreading rate is R; if half of the susceptible people are infected
(IPF = 50%), the spread rate decreases to half; if all susceptible are infected,
P=K, the spread stops; if a great part of the susceptible people are infected, for
example 2/3 of them (IPF = 67%), the spreading rate will be 1/3*R, which for corona
is (3/3=) about 1, and the disease is supposed to peter out (one person will infect
only another one or less). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Despite dramatic news from Spain in May, only about 5% population
seem to have been infected by then (<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext">here</a>).
<u>As of July, the herd immunity has not been achieved in Britain</u> either (<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/health/herd-immunity-may-not-be-achievable-in-fight-against-coronavirus">here</a>).
Even the most liberal protective measures in Sweden have not resulted in more than
6% infected in April (<a href="https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us">here</a>),
but the value may have increased to 40% in the and of July. Iran reports about a
third of the population infected on July 18 (it would be 93 times more than found
by testing, i.e. <i>M</i> = 93, <a href="https://meo.news/en/almost-third-iran%E2%80%99s-population-infected-covid-19">here</a>).
The results published on June 8 from <u>Italian Bergamo show over half of people there
having the antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-antibodies/over-half-of-people-tested-in-italys-bergamo-have-covid-19-antibodies-idUSKBN23F2JV">here</a>),
which may explain the slowdown in the infection rate</u> and possibly also the recently
observed weaker disease course (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200603/claims-of-a-weaker-covid-19-virus-disputed">here</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u><b>Excess deaths</b></u><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It can be assumed that <u>1% of the population die in the developed
countries every year</u>, since people can be divided approximately into 100 age groups
from 1 to 100 years old, and one of the group (the oldest) dies every year. Annual mortality
observed in various countries indeed approximates 1000 per 100,000, i.e. 1% (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate">here</a>, <a href="https://knoema.com/atlas/Italy/Death-rate">here</a>). For example <u>in Italy,
600 000 people should die every year, which is 50 000 per month and 1600 every day</u>.
At the maximum, 917 people died with COVID-19 on March 27, which was about a half
of the usual daily deaths; from March to July, during four months, 35,000 died with
corona in Italy, giving a rate of 287 daily, which was one fifth of the usual daily
deaths. It may be hypothesized that most of the deceased had underlying conditions
and would die even without corona within several months, but this can be verified
only in the future, by comparing the annual death rates. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>When comparing the current weekly death rates with the death
rates from the previous years, excess deaths have been observed in more countries</u>,
including England in regard to 65+ year old (<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877621/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_14_2020_report.pdf">here</a>),
the U.S. with observed 30% increase of weekly deaths (<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm">here</a>), New
York with 100% increase of monthly deaths (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html">here</a>),
Europe with 50% increase of weekly deaths (<a href="https://euromomo.eu/">here</a>),
Spain with 32% deaths increase during March-April (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Spain#/media/File:Daily_mortality_in_Spain_April_2018%E2%80%93April_2020.png">here</a>), Germany with 40% increase in March (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-excess-fatalities-in-italy-rise-well-above-official-death-toll/a-53320420">here</a>), and Italy with 17% to 294% deaths increase in various Lombardy cities in March (<a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-excess-mortality-figures-in-italy-d9640f411691">here</a>).<br />
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Many physicians have observed that the <u>reduced service given
in the emergency units and all other clinics during the corona epidemic have led
to many excessive deaths. Some elderly have died because of the severed contacts
with their families</u>. The statistics will show whether it was coronavirus or these
associated problems that will have caused more excessive deaths. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Age of the deceased</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
From the beginning, it was reported that the mortality sharply
increases with age (<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/">here</a>),
while more than 70% dead are above 65 years, and less than 3% are without underlying
conditions, so that less than 1% dead are younger than 65 without known conditions
(<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/">here</a>).
The mean age of the deceased was reported between 80 and 86 in Europe and U.S. (<a href="https://www.wodarg.com/">here</a>). I recalculated the mortality values per
million of people in the age intervals for the Czech republic; it can be seen that
the <u>mortality increases approximately exponentially, with a common ratio of about
3 for the increased mortality per every 10 years of increased age</u> (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/corona-table-3.html">Table 3</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Comparison with influenza</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As said above, the infection by COVID-19 results in about 80%
asymptomatic or nearly asymptomatic cases; according to a British study, around
75% of flu infections in England in 2014 were symptom-free or so mild that they
weren't identified through weekly questioning (<a href="https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/">here</a>).
According to the same study, influenza had been usually infecting 18% of unvaccinated
people each winter, based on levels of antibodies in the blood; in May 2020, COVID-19
had infected 17% Londoners (<a href="https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-22/UK-tests-reveal-17-of-Londoners-have-COVID-19-antibodies-QGoxm5G2Ig/index.html">here</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Both conditions are more dangerous for the elderly, ages 65+.
However, while flu may be dangerous for small children (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza">here</a>), COVID-19 does not affect
children (<a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/getting-our-kids-back-to-school-a-matter-of-trust">here</a>);
for example, more than 200 children up to 5 years old died in the Italian flu season
of 2016 (<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285">here</a>).
Speaking of Italy, both flu of 2016 and CoV-2 of 2020 showed a higher excess mortality
in Italy compared to other European countries (<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285">here</a>).
By July 21, COVID-19 claimed 245,000 diagnosed and 35,000 dead in Italy, providing
apparent lethality of 14%. When correcting the value for the real number of infected
(IPF), which has recently seemed to be at least 20% population (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-antibodies/over-half-of-people-tested-in-italys-bergamo-have-covid-19-antibodies-idUSKBN23F2JV">here</a>),
the lethality value would be 0.3%. The influenza season of 2016 in Italy afflicted
5.4 million people and took lives of 43,336 (<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285">here</a>),
corresponding to the lethality of 0.8%. In New York, 20% have been infected and
20,000 have died with CoV-2, which makes 1% lethality, versus 0.1-0.2% for flu (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?auth=login-google">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The flu lethality is usually given in the range of 0.01 to 1%,
the COVID-19 lethality values of many countries are mostly in the same range, as
shown in in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a> (bold
black in the last column). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
For further comparison, the flu pandemic of 2009 infected between
700 and 1400 million people with 150-600 thousand deaths (cca 0.03% lethality);
by the end of July, COVOD-19 has infected about (17 million confirmed x 30=) cca
500 million with 660 thousand deaths (0.1% lethality).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><u>So far, the current corona epidemic does not seem to result in more serious consequences than recent flu epidemics, except for enormous economic damages</u>. </o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Comparing CoV-2 course and handling in various countries</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>Different reporting attitudes</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It is generally accepted that people die rather with corona than
due to corona, and mostly due to additional serious conditions. It is not clear how the death with corona is
determined, and how the tested people are chosen, and different local rules have surely contributed to some differences. But the morbidity ranking is similar to the mortality
ranking in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>, which shows to similar treatment of this
issue in various countries (for example Switzerland is 7th in both parameters, and Israel
is 10th in both parameters on June 23). Singapore differs in this respect,
being the first in morbidity and the 14th in mortality. Singapore may be more restrictive
than other countries in defining and reporting the death with corona, but other
factors may be involved. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>Non-democratic and developing countries</u> started to report later
than democratic countries, and probably did <u>not have the same means and will to
report real or precise data</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>Protective measures and strategies</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Restrictions were introduced in all countries, usually starting
in the middle of March in many countries (see the 1st column of <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>). In the countries closer
to China, protective measures were initiated earlier, as these countries are more
distrustful of the Communist China and more closely follow up what is happening
there. The state borders were closed in many countries. Public gathering sites were
closed in most countries at some stages, including restaurants, various shops, and
sport facilities. Free movement of people was restricted to the essential activities,
while introducing compulsory masks and distancing. Going to work was often restricted
and working from home was encouraged. Lockdowns were implemented in several countries.
Schools were closed, for some time at least, in most countries. Attending work and
school was not much limited in, for example, Australia or Korea, but the disease courses in these countries seemed
to be better than in many other countries anyway. <u>No closures were implemented in
Sweden, but the numbers of ill or dead per million has not been much different there
from Spain, Italy or Britain</u>, who implemented stricter measures (see <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>). Austria, Finland,
Norway, Singapore have all reopened their schools earlier and none of those countries
have seen an explosion of cases linked to schools; in Denmark, schools have been
open since late April, masks have not been required, but the number of infected
children has steadily declined (<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-kids-back-to-school">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Most countries started to test suspected patients by the RT-PCR
tests, which were obtained only with difficulties in the beginning. The website
WORLDOMETERS reported the numbers of performed tests around the world from the beginning
of April. The measures further included quarantining the positively tested, as well
as the persons coming to contact with them, and the persons returning from abroad.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>No country (except for Sweden) defined any clear strategy, while the responsible
politicians or experts tried to imitate the measures employed elsewhere.</u> The plans
usually mentioned “flattening the curve”, which meant spreading the infection to
a broader time interval to avoid eventual shortage of hospital equipment and personnel;
the measures, sometimes called “clever quarantine”, including following the citizens' movement and contacts, aimed at interrupting the infection
chain in most countries (see for example "Strategic Objectives" of WHO, <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_4">here</a>).
“Unnecessary” use of the PCR tests was discouraged in most countries, including
for example Japan and Germany. The elderly and vulnerable were to be particularly
protected, for example by limiting visits in the elderly homes. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In providing the protective means like masks or tests, defective
products were often obtained from Chinese or other sources (<a href="https://imb.uq.edu.au/article/2020/05/why-we-cannot-use-antibody-tests-diagnosing-covid-19">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.jpost.com/health-science/mossad-brought-100000-coronavirus-tests-to-israel-report-621532">here</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>Different disease courses</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
A group of 34 mostly democratic countries are ranked in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/corona-tab-4.html">Table 4</a> according to several
parameters characterizing the corona situation and its handling, including apparent
morbidity (the placing of the country shows parameter <i>a</i> in Table 4), mortality (parameter
<i>b</i>), apparent lethality (parameter <i>c</i>), and the inverted number of performed tests
per million people (parameter <i>d</i>), the countries being arranged from the least afflicted
to the most afflicted, and from the highest test number to the lowest. The countries
have been also ranked by combining morbidity with mortality (parameter <i>e</i>), and by
combining morbidity, mortality and inverted number of tests (parameter <i>f</i>). Table
4 shows the countries arranged according to parameter <i>f</i> (few ill and dead with many
tests go first). <u>Hong Kong has ended as the luckiest country or the most successful,
Spain as the least lucky or successful in the table</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The ratings of a country according to morbidity, mortality and
lethality (parameters <i>a</i>, <i>b</i>, <i>c</i>, <i>e</i>) often correlate with each other, as expected;
some deviations can be seen, for example, in case of Hungary, Bulgaria, Iceland,
and the above mentioned Singapore, indicating eventual different attitudes in characterizing
the ill or dead. Also as expected, the number of tests does not correlate with
the mortality. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Generally, <u>Eastern hemisphere countries have come out better
off in the current epidemic</u>, even though being closer to the disease source, including
Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and even Hong Kong. Also in the rest
of the world, the <u>Eastern countries, including Eastern Europe with Baltic states,
are usually in better situation than Western Europe and America</u>. Better preparedness
of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Singapore may be explained by their distrust
toward their big brother, by earlier information, and by their traditional use of
the respiration masks. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Some differences among the countries may be explained by different
“inoculation”, i.e. by greater number of visitors from the afflicted areas, for
example Italy having many Chinese workers and tourists. Some differences can be
explained by calculating the real morbidities. For example, on June 23 Germany had
the same apparent morbidity as Israel, and three times higher mortality (see <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>), but when corrected
for higher exposure fraction in Germany (higher real morbidity), probably caused
by higher initial inoculation, the real lethality was similar in both countries,
0.05% and 0.1% for Germany and Israel, respectively. An analogous difference between
France and Germany, who show the same apparent morbidities while France has 4.5
times higher mortality, is difficult to explain, but it may at least partially comprise
more discipline and less hugging in Germany. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It was suggested that less extensive testing in Italy and other
countries might be masking a number of cases with mild symptoms, compared to Germany,
thereby overestimating the lethality in those countries (<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3076420/coronavirus-why-are-so-many-more-people-dying-italy-germany">here</a>);
further, different testing methods are employed, in Germany elderly people who die
are not necessarily given postmortem examinations for coronavirus, while in Italy
reportedly everyone who dies is tested. Moreover, the elderly in Germany often do
not live in larger families. In addition, the average age of those infected was
lower in Germany than in many other countries; many of the early patients caught
the virus in Austrian and Italian ski resorts and were relatively young and healthy,
the average age of contracting the disease was relatively low in Germany as of April,
at 49, compared to 62 in France and Italy. Germany has further one of the highest
levels of intensive care beds per capita in Europe – 29 per 100,000 residents compared
to 13 in Italy, 12 in France, 10 in Spain and 7 in UK (<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3076420/coronavirus-why-are-so-many-more-people-dying-italy-germany">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/coronavirus-in-europa-letalitaet-in-deutschland-30-mal-niedriger-als-in-italien-wie-ist-das-moeglich/25626678.html">here</a>),
wherein the medical staff are regularly tested to prevent spread by them, eventually
doing block tests which check swabs of 10 employees at a time and following up with
individual tests only if there is a positive result (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html">here</a>).<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
Political factors might have contributed as well. One of them is the dismissive
attitude of some leftist politicians, like Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel
(today's European Council president) who decided to destroy Belgium's entire "strategic
stock" of 63 million protective face-masks in 2015 to use the stock space for
accommodating migrants (<a href="https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15916/coronavirus-belgium-carnage">here</a>);
Belgium now exhibits a morbidity between Spain and Britain, but its mortality is
the highest in he world. In another case, the Spanish leftist government organized
broad celebrations and a march on the Stalinist holiday of International Women Day
in March, despite the corona danger (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200527-spain-govt-under-fire-over-women-s-day-march-on-eve-of-outbreak">here</a>).
In February, the Florence mayor, social democrat Dario Nardella, encouraged the
residents to hug Chinese people in the streets to “encourage them in their fight
against the novel coronavirus” (<a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html">here</a>).<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The CoV-2 virus mutates quickly, and many strains circulate around the world, surely contributing to the differences in the disease courses.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Different CoV-2 strains</b></div>
Despite contradicting media reports, spread by the WHO (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/who-says-coronavirus-has-not-meaningfully-mutated-to-a-more-lethal-or-contagious-form.html">here</a>), and possibly also supported by vaccine developers (<a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/yes-sars-cov-2-is-mutating-but-before-you-freak-out-read-this">here</a>), the CoV-2 virus does not mutate slower than expected (see the paragraph "Viruses and coronaviruses" above). <br />
<br />
Coronavirus mutation rate and diversity have been studied, showing for example that a single base substitution can increase the mutation rate 20 fold (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3127101/">here</a>). It is known that changed regulation sequences can accelerate the coronavirus transcription 100-1000 fold (<a href="https://jvi.asm.org/content/76/3/1293">here</a>). Although thousands of known CoV-2 genomes have been sequenced from all around the world, clear links between the virus RNA sequence and its different behaviors in various countries have not been shown (see the below paragraph "Origin of SARS-CoV-2"). <u>We are still waiting for comparisons of strains prevailing in various countries, including the differences in the RNA sequences and their effects on the virus properties</u>. </div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b>Inaccurate data</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The reported values comprise some inconsistencies, seen also
in Table 1 (question marks), sometimes caused by late or inconsistent reporting,
and sometimes by other reasons. Of 15 countries
in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>, China exhibits
the lowest number of both ill and dead (16th place in the table both in morbidity
and mortality), in spite of being the first country in the pandemic chain. In the
beginning, People’s Republic of China (PRC) reported some cases from its whole area,
including the giant cities of Shanghai and Beijing (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4">here</a>).
However, after the initial growth, the number of reported ill and dead people soon
stopped and remained strikingly lower than in other countries, for example several
times lower than in Japan or Korea, and by several orders lower than in the Western
countries. China has later not related to the situation in other big cities except
for Wuhan, and the reported values look improbable (and nearly impossible, see the
nearly constant values of morbidity and mortality in <a href="https://www.hegaion.com/p/blog-page.html">Table 1</a>); moreover, no information
has been available about the number of Chinese tests till the end of June. <u>China
may have suffered by many orders more ill and dead people than reported</u>, according
to indirect signs (<a href="https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html">here</a>).
The data provided by PRC are not reliable, similarly to the data of other non-democratic
countries, as was obvious in their values provided to the WHO. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Origin of SARS-CoV-2</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
For years, the Chinese scientists have studied the bat coronaviruses
(<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711">here</a>). In 2015, the leading
Wuhan coronavirus scientist, Dr. Shi Zheng-Li, together with several US scientists
modified a harmless bat coronavirus to be capable of infecting the human cells (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985">here</a>); the work was strongly
criticized (<a href="https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502">here</a>)
as a dangerous “gain-of-function” experiment. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>In 2017, a Nature article reported about a laboratory in Wuhan</u>
cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens (Institute of Virology);
the lab being part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 labs
across the Chinese mainland by 2025 (<a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a>).
The Wuhan lab was built with the capacity to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake,
but the <u>Western scientists worried that viruses could easily escape</u> even without
any earthquake in view of known repeated escapes from high-level containment facilities
in China, including in Beijing. The article notes that transparency is the basis
of the work in such labs, but it is missing in China, and the labs even raise worries
about potential development of bioweapons. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>In 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing took the unusual step of
repeatedly sending U.S. science diplomats to the Wuhan Institute of Virology</u> (WIV),
and then they dispatched diplomatic cables warning to Washington about safety and
management weaknesses at the WIV lab, mentioning the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses
and their potential human transmission representing a <u>risk of a new SARS-like pandemic</u>
(<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-wuhan-coronaviruses-lab-in-2018/">here</a>
and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">here</a>).
During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, the Americans noted the
new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators
needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory; they also met with Shi
Zheng-Li, the head of the research project (later called “Bat woman” by the media);
her research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating
how it might emerge, but other scientists questioned whether Shi’s team was taking
unnecessary risks already in 2015; in October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed
a moratorium on funding any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious,
known as “gain-of-function” experiments. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Strangely, in September 2019, the Global Preparedness Monitoring
Board of the WHO, comprising mostly Western scientists including Anthony Fauci,
published a first “Annual report on global preparedness for health emergencies”,
dramatically named “A WORLD AT RISK”, in which they “prophetically” warned about
having to be prepared for the worst in a possible rapidly spreading, lethal respiratory
pathogen pandemic. They wrote: “In addition to a greater risk of pandemics from
natural pathogens, scientific developments allow for disease-causing microorganisms
to be engineered or recreated in laboratories. Should countries, terrorist groups,
or scientifically advanced individuals create or obtain and then use biological
weapons that have the characteristics of a novel, high-impact respiratory pathogen,
the consequences could be as severe as, or even greater, than those of a natural
epidemic, as could an accidental release of epidemic-prone microorganisms” (<a href="https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_annualreport_2019.pdf">here</a>).
It turns out that the epidemics started much earlier than admitted by the Chinese
authorities, possibly already in August and September 2019 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934">here</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270">here</a>).
It can be hypothesized that the above “prophetical” Annual report might have been
inspired by first indirect indications. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Incredible sloppiness of the work in the Wuhan lab was indicated
by the reports about experimental animal appearing on the local meat market as some
<u>Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling the laboratory animals to street
vendors</u> after they have finished experimenting on them instead of properly disposing
of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, to make an extra cash; one
Beijing researcher, now in jail, allegedly made a million dollars selling his monkeys
and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s
stomach (<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/">here</a>).
Wuhan scientists allegedly “did absolutely crazy things to alter coronavirus and
enabled it to infect humans”, according to Prof. Petr Chumakov of Russia (<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249875/Wuhan-laboratory-scientists-did-absolutely-crazy-things-alter-coronavirus.html">here</a>).
Even <u>Dr. Shi Zheng-Li inadevertantly admitted, in her interview for Scientic American
in February 2020, that she had wondered whether the new virus could not originate
from her laboratory</u> (the interview was published in June, see <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/">here</a>,
line 20). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
When rumors about a new virus started to circulate toward the
end of 2019, Chinese scientists quickly published its whole sequence, its properties
and its relatedness to other coronaviruses in two articles submitted to Nature (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3">here</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7#Sec2">here</a>). The first
of the articles (received in Nature on January 7) <u>managed to identify and totally
characterize the “unknown agent“ of an unknown disease (the new coronavirus) in
one patient within six days</u>. The second article (received in Nature on January 20),
co-authored by Zheng-Li Shi of Wuhan, analyzed several patients, and the authors
searched for a new coronavirus, which they found and totally characterized within
two weeks. Strangely, the second article also announces the existence of a bat virus,
called CoV RaTG13 (known to them but not published since 2013), which has 96% homology
with the newly discovered CoV-2.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Chinese government tried to attract attention to the local
meat market as to possible animal source of the new virus, in which the virus would
have evolved naturally, mentioning snakes, bats, and pangolins (for example in both
above Nature articles). The “natural origin” of the new virus was generally supported
by the mainstream media and establishment from the beginning, an example being condemnation
of any attempts to look for an artificial origin in Guardian on 20 February 2020:
“Experts fear false rumours could harm Chinese cooperation on coronavirus” (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-false-rumours-experts">here</a>).
The scientific establishment tries to reject the laboratory origin of COVID-19 too;
for example, Nature in January 2020 (by retroactive adding their note to an old
article, <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a>),
or Nature on 17 March 2020 (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9">here</a>). For example,
Lancet of 7 March 2020 states that “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy
theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin” (<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext">here</a>).
However, a research scientist of University of California at Berkeley, Xiao Qiang,
said: “I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question
that needs to be investigated and answered... To understand exactly how this originated
is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future” (<a href="https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/us-officials-raised-alarms-about-wuhan-coronaviruses-lab-in-2018/">here</a>
and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">here</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Cov-2 virus comprises unique structural features. The RNA segment
coding for the spike protein, which binds to the human receptor ACE2, was found
to have an insertion of 12-nucleotides resulting in four extra amino acids in positions
681-684 of the spike protein (<a href="https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/4558-4564.pdf">here</a>);
the authors believe these four extra residues, entirely unique to this human virus
and not found in any other species, may have improved contagiousness of the virus.
Additional elements may contribute to the virus properties; for example, the envelope
protein E is very conservative in other coronaviruses, but in CoV-2 it seems different
(<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1008421&type=printable">here</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
It is known, that a one-base change can increase the mutation rate of a coronavirus 20 fold (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3127101/">here</a>); it is also known that changes in the regulation sequence could accelerate the coronavirus transcription 100-1000 fold (<a href="https://jvi.asm.org/content/76/3/1293">here</a>). For example, the importance of the 5'-UTR for the coronavirus replication is known (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7122471/">here</a>), even though I have not managed to find unexpected diversity in 5'-UTR of CoV-2 in comparison with other coronaviruses (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2020/08/5-utr-of-coronaviruses-mutates-twice.html">here</a>). However, changes in several other CoV-2 parts of genome might explain the virus's behavior. An ever increasing number of reports search for the links between various mutations and the new behavior features of the virus (<a href="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-mutation-coronavirus-infect-human-cells.html">here</a>, <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.12.148726v1">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x">here</a>). The present day technology enables not only to radically change an existing virus, but even to synthesize a new virus entirely from scratch (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2294-9.pdf">here</a>).<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The origin of SARS-CoV-2 has not been explained so far, the same
as the origin of SARS-CoV-1. The CoV-2 genome may have been artificially edited
or not, but <u>its escape from one of the Wuhan labs seems hardly refutable</u>. Many publications
relate to the mysterious origin of the virus (for example, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098222030662X">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054935/">here</a>, <a href="https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/4558-4564.pdf">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139247/">here</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins">here)</a>,
and while not supporting a possible artificial intervention in its structure, their
findings do not disprove such intervention, and still less an eventual lab escape.
Hopefully, the non-intimidated scientists outside or inside China will eventually
explain the origin of CoV-2 and make the Chinese government admit its errors (<a href="https://www.wionews.com/opinions-blogs/why-no-one-should-believe-covid-19-is-naturally-occurring-310667">here</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>The attitude of politicians, media, and experts</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As outlined above in the paragraph about strategies, leaders
around the world took overcautious attitudes and have rather imitated the measures
from elsewhere than prepared clear and efficient plans with local experts. Some
politicians hurried to be the first in closing borders and restricting the movement
of their citizens, others to introduce masks and distancing, and most copied at
least something from abroad, while enjoying the role of saviors of their nations.
<u>Some countries decided to</u> <u>go for as broad testing as possible (but illogically without random sampling), others decided (illogically) to
save on the tests</u>. The rulers in nondemocratic countries preferred to ignore the
epidemic, at least in the beginning. Experts who were invited to participate in
the decision making seemed to be <u>rather opportunists than scientists with broad
horizons</u>. Only a few countries tried to take a different course, particularly Sweden,
by not insisting on too restrictive measures, but even they were not well prepared
and underestimated increased mortality. With all the different attitudes, no clear
correlation between any measures and results can be given, and it seems that it
was the virus itself that decided the course of events everywhere. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In all countries it was logical and necessary to employ a part
of the numerous tests for random population testing to determine the extent of infection,
to know the fraction of the people who have already been infected (have antibodies)
and also the fraction of people who are active (PCR positive). Any planning is possible
only when knowing how many people are infected and still can be infected – but all
the leaders and all the officials responsible for handling corona everywhere tried
to avoid this random testing for ridiculous reasons. Nearly all countries had the
goal of “flattening the curve”, i.e. to retard the disease spread and keep the number
of hospitalized low, while possibly also interrupting the chain of infection (“clever
quarantine”); however, no goals can be planned or checked without exact values obtained
by random testing. The <u>only reasonable preventive measure, with or without testing,
has been protecting the vulnerable; all other restrictions were harmful</u>; the damages caused to the economy are immense, but the social and
psychological consequences of the lockdown are incalculable as well, including the
forced isolation of the old people from their families, often resulting in premature
death. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Nowhere in the world, the media employ intelligent people with
technical education or at least with solid general knowledge, so that nowhere could
the citizens hear any reasonable opinions, having to rely on what their politicians
wished to babble – similarly in democratic and nondemocratic countries. Naturally,
citizens in all countries took very seriously the frightening news about helpless
Italian doctors and their dying patients, and so they obediently complied with all
requirements, at least in the beginning. Media workers enjoyed playing experts and
passing to the public the threatening news – together with many fake news. All kinds
of experts also flooded the citizens with ever altering views, for example one day
the coronavirus mutated quickly, another day slowly. Even the state leading experts
usually turned out to be totally confused (Sweden, Czech Republic, Israel, etc.).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Only occasionally, dissenting opinions could be heard. One of
the scientists who warned of hysteria was
pneumologist Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, former Bundestag member, who spoke about
“corona hype which, without due epidemiological evidence, caused damages to our
freedom and personal rights through frivolous and unjustified quarantine measures
and restrictions, employing the mainstream of fear mongers in labs, media, and ministries”
(<a href="https://www.theeuropean.de/en/wolfgang-wodarg/corona-hype-without-pcr-tests-there-would-be-no-reason-for-special-alarms/">here</a>).
Similar tone was heard, for example, from a former Israeli Health Ministry director,
Prof. Yoram Lass (<a href="https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Coronavirus-lockdown-Life-saving-or-lunacy-623937">here</a>).
They correctly noted that many scientists swam along, needing money, and showing
their contribution and importance, while ignoring the facts about similar effects
of seasonal flu infections.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As mentioned in the paragraph “Different disease courses”, while
the pandemic started to spread in Italy, the leftist Italian politicians absurdly
appealed to the people to show love for the Chinese and hug them in the streets
wherever they meet them (<a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html">here</a>).
Similar signs of love for the Chinese and the will to help them occurred in many
countries, including Europe, U.S., and Israel (<a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/article/BkQsenUzI">here</a>). People’s Republic of
China returned these signs of friendship by accusing the U.S. of bringing the new
virus to Wuhan (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html">here</a>).
A part of the material help, which had been provided to China at the beginning of
the pandemic, was later sold back to the helping countries for exaggerated prices
(<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8193197/China-forces-Italy-BUY-masks-coronavirus-supplies-donated-Beijing.html">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Who is WHO?</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
World Health Organization (WHO) has been publishing <u>contradicting proclamations and recommendations</u>,
starting with arguing about the use of the term “pandemic”. Their texts are confused
and confusing, e.g. mixing mortality with lethality (<a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza?gclid=Cj0KCQjw6uT4BRD5ARIsADwJQ1-PmxaXoEnYRJDfj-6MREV1871MBMfLRfucJPu7bPdD8uGwcRYnf5EaAtXDEALw_wcB">here</a>),
or showing many mutants around the world while stating that the virus is not mutating
(<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/who-says-coronavirus-has-not-meaningfully-mutated-to-a-more-lethal-or-contagious-form.html">here</a>).
When the only reasonable measure turned out to be wearing masks, the WHO decided
against the masks (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/face-masks-cannot-stop-healthy-people-getting-covid-19-says-who">here</a>).
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
For years, the World Health Organization (WHO) was managed by
the representative of China, a country taking the 144th place of 190 in the list
of countries arranged according to the quality of healthcare, followed by the last
three years during which the WHO has been managed by the representative of Ethiopia
– a country which takes the 180th place of 190 in the list (<a href="https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf">here</a>). The WHO’s general secretary,
Tedros Adhanom Ghegreyesus, used to be the leader of the terrorist organization
Tigray People's Liberation Front (<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-chief-tedros-questionable-past-coronavirus">here</a>);
he is also known for covering up cholera epidemics in Ethiopia when serving as the
health minister there (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/health/candidate-who-director-general-ethiopia-cholera-outbreaks.html?searchResultPosition=2">here</a>).
<u>Although the budget of the WHO is paid by developed and democratic countries (22%
is paid by the U.S. and 10% by Japan), developing or nondemocratic countries direct
its politics</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
China has special powers in WHO, which is indicated also by the
fact that an important developed and democratic country like Taiwan has no place
in the WHO. Not surprisingly, the WHO and its leader Adhanom decided that the most
important element in the strategy against corona is to find all infected and isolate
them (<a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/covid-strategy-update-14april2020.pdf?sfvrsn=29da3ba0_19">here</a>),
despite the fact that finding the infected is hardly possible when 80% people have
no symptoms, and when most countries test only a small part of the population; so
the mask-less strategy of the WHO would clearly result in more infected people who,
however, cannot be located, so that lockdown of the Western world would last forever,
and its economy would eventually collapse. This would be the result of the strategy
promoted by Mr. Adhanom – a great friend of People’s Republic of China. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>The status in the end of July </u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As of the end of July 2020, the 1st place in the number of CoV-2
cases per million people in the list of all countries was Qatar (39,000 = 3.9% population
have been diagnosed positive), followed by (only the developed and democratic countries
are shown, the numbers are rounded): USA (10th with 13,000 cases per million), Luxembourg
(16th with 10,000), Sweden (18th with 8,000), Spain (22nd with 6,800), Israel (23rd
with 6,700), Belgium (27th with 5,700), Iceland (32nd with 5,400), Ireland (33rd
with 5,200), Portugal (36th with 4,900), Britain (40th with 4,400), Italy (44th
with 4,100), Switzerland (46th with 4,000), Netherland (56th with 3,100), Canada
(57th with 3,000), France (63rd with 2,800), Germany (69th with 2,500), Denmark
(74th with 2,300), and Austria (75th with 2,300). In absolute numbers of the diagnosed
cases, the 1st is US with 4.5 million, 2nd Brazil with 2.5 million, and 3rd India
with 1.5 million (around July 27).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The case number for the whole world is between the values for
the 79th and 80th countries (2,100 cases per million), showing that the developing
countries have lower morbidity due to less intense travelling, and/or due to lower
testing. For example, India, having 1,4 billion population, is 99th with 1,000 cases;
China, where the pandemics started, having also 1,4 billion population, is 193rd
with merely 58 cases per million (all the values are from <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">WORLDOMETERS</a>). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The list of countries according to the decreasing number of deaths
per million (July 27) goes as follows: the 1st is San Marino with 1,240 (= 0.1%
population), followed by: Belgium (2nd with 850), Britain (3rd with 680), Spain
(5th with 610), Italy (6th with 580), Sweden (7th with 560), France (10th with 460),
USA (11th with 450), Netherland (13th with 360), Ireland (14th with 360), Canada
(22nd with 240), Switzerland (23rd with 230), Luxembourg (30th with 180), Portugal
(31st with 170), Germany (39th with 110), Denmark (41st with 110), etc. The mean
value for the world is 83 deaths per million and is placed between the 47th and
48th countries in the list. The biggest countries, India and China, are 99th with
23 and 163rd with 3 dead per million, respectively. In absolute numbers of the deaths,
the 1st is US with about 150,000, 2nd Brazil
with about 90,000, and the 3rd is UK with about 45,000. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The most throughout tested are citizens of Monaco (97% of all
people), followed by Luxembourg (3rd with 63%), Iceland (9th with 35%), UK (13th
with 21%), Israel (18th with 17%), USA (22nd with 16%), Italy (34th with 11%), Czechia
(57th with 6%), France (78th with 5%), Korea (97th with 3%), India (136th with 1%),
Japan (159th with 0.6%), Taiwan (172nd with 0.3%), etc. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Assessments of the IPF values (as outlined in the paragraph "Morbidity,
mortality, lethality, IPF")<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
provide the following estimation ranges for the infected population fractions
in various countries by the end of July: 25-50% in Sweden, 15-30% in U.S., 10-30%
in Italy (supposing that the reported values of 30-50% related rather to Northern
Italy), 5-15% in Germany, 6-10% in Israel, 5-10% in United Kingdom, 5-8% in Spain,
5-8% in France, 3-5% in Singapore, 2-4% in Czechia, 0.5-3% in Japan, 0.5-2% in Korea,
0.5-1% in Australia. The data for China would suggest only 0.05-0.2% infected, again
absurdly placing the PRC as the least afflicted country in the whole world. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
If using the above IPF ranges for recalculating the lethality
values, the following real lethality values are estimated (the red values of mortality
per million from the 7th column of Table 1 are divided by the mean value of said
above ranges and divided by 100): 0.3% in Sweden, 0.2% in U.S., 0.3% in Italy, 0.05%
in Israel, 1% in Spain, 0.7% in France, 0.1% in Germany, 1.0% in United Kingdom,
0.1% in Czechia, 0.01% in Singapore, and 0.05% in Japan, Korea and Australia. Again,
<u>the lethality values by July are between 0.1 and 1%, </u><u>not much differing for the values for flu.</u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In all countries (except for China, where the values are different
from all other countries), the numbers of positively diagnosed people (apparent
morbidities, see the blue values in the 4th column in Table 1) stopped the exponential
increase by April-May, and continued to increase in a rather linear way, manifested
as stagnating or decreasing increments of the new daily cases. In some of the initially
worst corona-explosion centers, like Italy, Spain and Britain, the situation after
the first half of the year seems to have slowly stabilized. However, the public pressure
toward releasing restrictions seems to have resulted in the increased new cases,
for example in the U.S. and Israel (called “a second wave”).<br />
<br />
Everywhere the apparent
lethality (black values in the last but one column in Table 1), as well as the numbers
of new deaths, reached a maximum (in April for the number of new deaths and in May
for the mortality) and started to decrease. <u>Decreasing deaths may result from the improved intensive care (the personnel have
learned to better provide ventilation and medication to difficult patients); it
is also possible that the most vulnerable people started to protect themselves better,
and further that the virus lowered its virulence (the most virulent strains of CoV-2
may have killed their hosts, and the most susceptible people have already been infected); lower motivation of the authorities to report the deaths cannot be excluded either</u>. In any case, the virulence of CoV-2 seems to fade since June, at least in Italy (<a href="https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200603/claims-of-a-weaker-covid-19-virus-disputed">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In various countries, the disease infected between 1% and 50%
people, mostly far from reaching the herd immunity. The available measures cannot
eradicate the disease and, moreover, the restrictions will have to be moderated,
in order to prevent economic collapse, so that the disease will continue in most
countries in a similar way for many months to come. As of the end of July, the business
starts slowly to return to its speed, even though many restrictions go on, including
the movement restrictions between the countries (flights, tourism). The recession
in the developed countries will comprise more than 10% decrease in the employment
and the same decrease in the GDP within the first corona year. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Preliminary conclusions </u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
An unexpected global problem of a pandemic, less lethal than
most of known diseases, has demonstrated that <u>neither the united Western world,
nor any of the developed countries alone, are able to efficiently cope with new problems</u>. No capable leader has appeared in any country; no existing political
or scientific national or international body has come with usable ideas; no scientist
or a scientific body sounded a reasonable plan sufficiently aloud so as to be transferred
by the mainstream media to the public. As expected, the nondemocratic countries
have even not been able to acknowledge what was happening. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
No systematic population random sampling has been performed,
<u>as if an invisible hand of chaos worked against the Western society</u>. The hospitals
have reduced their activities, the elderly homes prevented contacts with family
members, people have been dying for many reasons other than corona. The media have
not provided scientific information but only frightened and confused the public
(possibly except for Sweden). The <u>politicians around the world showed incompetence,
and even stupidity</u>, for example when being surprised by trivial and expectable events,
such as increased cases with increased testing or renewed CoV spread with released
restrictions, or when they wondered "why to test people who are not ill". <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Western culture was able to eliminate hunger on Earth and
to bring the man to the Moon, but it has not been able to face a mild disease that
has spread out of China. <u>This case will have to be studied well, since the humankind
will hardly be able to face challenges like a global earthquake, a big asteroid
strike, or a global Ebola-like epidemic,
if the developed countries will not learn to optimally utilize the best science
and technology in common actions</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
Whereas the Chinese scientists were allegedly able to completely solve the enigma of a novel disease by examining several patients within six days (see their article in <i>Nature</i> <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7#Sec2">here</a>), millions of the world scientists have not been able to come with some concrete conclusions, even though having detailed information from millions patients, including thousands of CoV-2 genome sequences.<br />
<br />
Only in war times were people locked in homes. But never during the whole history have people gone through a global lockdown, with state borders closed. Even the greatest political terrors have not banned on visiting parents and grandparents. Prayers in churches and synagogues have not been stopped for thousands years, even in the darkest ages. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Minimal economic damages may be estimated at 5,000 billion dollars (if
taking the Western annual production as worth of about 100,000 billion dollars,
and if considering the losses only as 5% during the first corona year). This <u>minimal damage estimation equals 1/3 of the Chinese GDP, and should be claimed in reparations from
the PRC, together with appropriate explanations and apologies</u>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><u>Way out</u></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The authorities anywhere in the world have not presented any
real plan, only waiting for some changes in some parameters and imitating proclamations
of others. Real plan will not wait for anything before being presented clearly to
the public. For example, the following principles may hold immediately, either in
individual countries or internationally: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(1) Vulnerable people, as defined by healthcare authorities (e.g.
suffering from cancer, hypertension, pulmonary diseases, diabetes, obesity), will
protect themselves, or will be protected by their families, or by responsible institutes
(like retired homes) with families’ consent in order to reduce the probability of
contracting CoV-2 (masks, special attention to contacts with the others);<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(2) all businesses, big and small, and all activities will immediately
start to function as before the current epidemics; and <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
(3) a scientific committee or board will be established, consisting
of the best scientists, to evaluate the course of the disease (including regular
antibody and RT-PCR random sampling), to plan the necessary research, and to regularly
inform the public. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The herd immunity will be considered, together with developing
vaccines and/or medicaments, in parallel. <u>No good plan can afford to freeze the
society’s life</u>, or to wait for the herd immunity (<a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810">here</a>,
<a href="https://video.aktualne.cz/dvtv/svoboda-koronavir-je-genialne-usity-na-cloveka-promorit-popu/r~3b05ff926f9a11ea9d74ac1f6b220ee8/">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-could-end1/">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.history.com/news/pandemics-end-plague-cholera-black-death-smallpox">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/how-did-the-spanish-flu-pandemic-end-and-what-lessons-can-we-learn-from-a-century-ago">here</a>,
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?auth=login-google">here</a>).
The infection chain cannot be easily interrupted either, since 80% people have no
symptoms, and too many people are infected. The fact is that the infection spreads
surprisingly quickly in closed groups of people without restrictions (<a href="https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012">here</a>, <a href="https://scroll.in/article/962317/one-in-four-delhi-returnees-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-in-bihar-what-does-this-mean">here</a>).
Even if locating and isolating all infected people in one country (which would be
feasible by quick testing the whole population), new cases will be brought from
abroad, so that global eradication would be necessary. But similar viruses may appear
any time again from nature, or they can be constructed by terrorists or hostile
governments and spread around the world again. The plan must consider all scenarios.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The strains of sequenced viruses from the victims around the
world should be compared, and <u>samples of the blood donors around the world should
be retroactively checked</u> for SARS-CoV-2 for the periods of the whole year 2019,
to trace the origin of the epidemic, and to entirely understand it. The <u>scientific
and political conclusions will have to be drawn from the COVID-19 epidemic</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>The Western society should start promoting technical education
and exact sciences over pure humanities and politics. The West should further strengthen
its independence on, and its upper hand over, the non-democratic countries. Critically,
China must be pushed toward more openness and democracy</u>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-20260049820491542072020-06-30T23:48:00.003+03:002020-07-03T14:04:16.837+03:00Checkmating Black Is Prohibited – Google's Censorship of Chess Commentaries Suggests That Western Democracy Is Close to Checkmate<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: justify;">Croatian chess player
Antonio Radić publishes his comments on chess games on a Youtube chess channel under
the pseudonym "agadmator"; his podcasts are highly popular. For
example, his "</span><i style="text-align: justify;">The Greatest Queen Sacrifice in History</i><span style="text-align: justify;">" has
over 4.5 million visits, and all of his videos together have already received
275 million visits (</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Radi%C4%87" style="text-align: justify;">here</a><span style="text-align: justify;">).</span></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Radić's podcasts are
completely non-political, which is why their author was absolutely dismayed
when his chess commentary of June 27 was removed from Youtube by Google as
"harmful and dangerous". "Agadmator" shared his shock with
his fans the day after (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSjrYWPxsG8">here</a>),
reflecting on possible reasons why Google has chosen to delete the podcast and
believing it was a software bug that may have discerned potentially incorrect
words in the comment, and so by mistake and out of context, it delegitimized
the entire podcast. Radić cites the assumption of his supporters (he is afraid
to express such ideas in his name) that perhaps usual chess sentences, such as
"the black cannot face the pressure of the white" or "the black
must lose", were interpreted by the censoring robot as politically
incorrect or racist. Hundreds of thousands of fans witnessed Radić's
misunderstanding and sadness, and under their pressure Youtube returned the
podcast on June 29 (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/AGADMATOR/videos">here</a>).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The aggressive
progressives (or progressive aggressors) are beginning to condemn classical
music because it was composed only by White men, and this can hardly be undone by
an occasional gay among the composers. Now the time for chess has come (Es
kommt der tag, said Nazis) – and a number of changes can be expected. Black
will move first, and if that doesn't help, white and black will be replaced by
blue and green. Another solution could be positive discrimination, ordering the
White people to start a game without one pawn, Asians without two, and Jews
without three pawns; if that will not help, African Americans will start with
two queens.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Radić's case clearly
shows that Western democracy is on the verge of ending. Not only are some statements
banned, but innocent phrases containing non-recommended words are censored, while
most information passes through several giant engines, such as Google and
Facebook. Physical erasure is performed by a robot analyzing written and spoken
texts as in the worst anti-utopias, and in the future it will probably not be
possible to discuss the legitimacy of the erasure with any humans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Deleting posts on
Facebook becomes ever more common, and the above chess scandal shows that
Google also becomes very active and even activist. It's not just about Youtube,
it's also about searching on Google. After all, Google has already taken up 93%
of the market from search engines on the Internet; in second place is Bing with
only 2.5% and in third place Yahoo with 1.5% of the market (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_search_engine">here</a>). Anyone
looking for anything anywhere in the world relies on the results found by
Google, which was already discredited by its cooperation with the Chinese
Communist government in their efforts to select only suitable Internet search
results for their subjects (<a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/12/01/google-china-censorship-human-rights/">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It has always been
claimed that Google has a very sophisticated secret algorithm for ranking
websites and arranging them in the final search result. Such a rating is
critical, because any Google search will yield thousands to millions of
results, of which the top ten are usually reviewed, so the others don't seem to
exist. Two years ago, I tried to explore a little said algorithm in terms of
keywords in the title; I confirmed that using six to nine words from the title
will usually ensure the article is present among the top ten sites in the
search result (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2018/06/website-page-titles-included-in-google.html">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, while "exploring"
that algorithm, I repeatedly received a question from Google "Are you
human?", and later my website stopped to be included in search results,
even though I searched for long titles, which figured first in both Bing and
Yahoo search engines. Google advises that it can lower the ratings of websites
whose owner violates some of the rules, and may even completely omit the site
from further browsing (deindexing). I deduced that my repeated searches could
be considered by the protection software as "Sending automated queries to
Google", which is prohibited. After submitting my explanation and request
in Console application, the reduction in the rating of my Czech and Hebrew articles
has been removed, and it seems softer for my English articles. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As a patent attorney,
I looked at Google's patents and found that the company made no secret of its
efforts to change the placement of certain documents in the final search result
(such as <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US7996392">here</a> and <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US8924380">here</a>) according to the
requirements. For example, the first of these patents relates to an algorithm providing
results as currently needed; the second patent provides an algorithm enabling to
change the position of a particular document in the final search result by
applying a "rank transition function".<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Giant companies such
as Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft or Google are probably interested mainly in
profits, but given the left-wing tendencies of today's tycoons, these companies
also support everything politically correct and progressive. This combination,
of course, tends to support Democrats in America and China in the world. No
matter how the views and interests of these giants evolve, the concentration of
their power is critically dangerous for the continued existence of Western
democracy, which seems to be close to its checkmate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-63867258812283578432020-05-01T00:06:00.004+03:002020-05-01T16:01:02.404+03:00The Torment of Open Chernobyl Wounds – Hundreds of Thousands Died but Thousands Continued to Writhe in Pain<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">At the end of April, millions of former Soviet
citizens commemorate the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor on April
26, 1986. The families of 6,000 Tajiks who were suddenly removed from
Tajikistan in the spring of 1989 serve as an example; the young men were taken to
"help build houses in Russia" and they reappeared only in the autumn
of that year – changed beyond recognition (<a href="https://fergana.ru/articles/117133/">here</a>). The Soviets took the young Tajiks completely unexpectedly and under false pretenses; the men found</span><br />
<a name='more'></a>themselves in Chernobyl to clear the effects of the explosion near the reactor.
Today, only 1,800 of those 6,000 live, and 1,450 of those 1,800 are disabled.
Some of the returned men became infertile and some gave birth to ill children;
1300 children were born with deformities or chronic diseases. It was not until
2007 that the law on social assistance to citizens affected by the Chernobyl
disaster was adopted in Tajikistan, but according to the testimony of affected
families, disability benefits hardly suffice for medicines. However, the
liquidators received medals, and a monument was built for them onto which
wreaths were laid a few days ago (<a href="https://fergana.ru/articles/117133/#gallery-2">here</a>).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="CS">The Chernobyl disaster is one of the greatest
crimes of the totalitarian regimes in the 20th century. Of course, nuclear
technology is not to blame for the accident and its consequences, just as
chemistry is not to blame for gassing people. Modern technology in the hands of
totalitarian regimes is still a major threat today, as evidenced by the
coronavirus leaked from the prestigious virus laboratory in Wuchan, which
Western scientists suspected of developing biological weapons even several years
ago (<a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="CS">Emergencies similar to those in Chernobyl
before the tragic explosion were common in the Soviet Union. The reactor at the
power plant 70 km from Leningrad almost exploded as early as 1975. The
authorities often did not even stop the reactors during the radioactivity
leaks. The Chernobyl power plant was considered to be one of the safest because
it had, on average, "only" five technological accidents a year. An
atmosphere of secrecy and fear was the best breeding ground for industrial
accidents and for maximizing casualties. After the Chernobyl explosion, the
Soviet authorities exposed millions of citizens to unnecessary doses to
"prevent panic" and to sweep everything under the rug as quickly as
possible. Although the radiation intensity in Kiev in the first days after the
explosion was up to 100 mR/h, the comrades did not want to be deprived of the
May Day parade. At that time, of course, the Czech comrades also organized an
annual parade as well; fortunately, the winds did not blow towards Prague, which
was not known at that time, but no wind would have prevented the comrades from
having to parade their humiliated subjects under the rostrum anyway. Soon after
the explosion, the Czech press enthusiastically reported on how Chernobyl returns
to life, and how art ensembles from Kiev visit in the Chernobyl House of
Culture (<a href="https://neviditelnypes.lidovky.cz/zahranici/historie-besi-z-cernobylu-po-30-letech.A160421_210220_p_zahranici_wag">here</a>). </span><br />
<span lang="CS"><br /></span>
<span lang="CS">We have seen movies showing brave young men rushing into space near
the broken reactor, grabbing pieces of glowing graphite with their bare hands
and running back, with someone measuring their time, it shouldn't have taken
them more than a few tens of seconds. Most of the young men managed to catch up
on time, but unfortunately, the communist authorities did not limit the number
of their compulsory cycles. Svetlana Alexievich describes (Chernobyl Prayer,
2016, Pinguin, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chernobyl-Prayer-Chronicle-Penguin-Classics-ebook/dp/B01AY2Q0K2">here</a>)
how a red flag had to fly over a destroyed reactor, and when the flag weathered
off, a soldier had to run to the roof with a fresh flag – to die soon
afterward, one soldier every month. According to Alexievich, those who lost their skin, and screamed in
pain and thirst, often did not receive pain relief in the hospital, and
sometimes not even water to quench their thirst.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="CS">Of the 800,000 young men – liquidators – sent to
clean the most polluted areas, more than 20% died by 2011. A sober estimate of
the number of deaths due to the accident by 2011 is between 280,000 and 360,000
citizens of the Soviet Union or post-Soviet republics (<a href="https://www.hegaion.com/2011/11/number-of-victims-in-chernobyl.html">here</a>).
This is also confirmed by information rarely obtained from Soviet officials who
witnessed all this (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AKQ1IgqudyI0nYfDhpYO12JoKO4_pdh_/view">here</a>). The number of victims was not officially published
by the Soviet Union or by any successor state. As always, representatives of
the UN and the left-wing media help the Communists and post-Communists to
create fog about the Chernobyl situation. The magic number 31 for the alleged number
of victims in the Chernobyl accident is usually accompanied by mentions of the Three
Miles Island incident and the Fukushima tsunami. </span><br />
<span lang="CS"><br /></span>
<span lang="CS">The most liberal and honest
communist in history, Mikhail Gorbachev, denied allegations that the Soviet
leadership had deliberately concealed the truth about Chernobyl, and he wrote
in his memoirs: "We simply did not know the whole truth yet." So that,
while the subjects were dying, the rulers simply knew nothing. The logical
conclusion is that the Communists are either the most deceitful creatures among
politicians – or the most stupid ones? The truth is somewhere in the middle.
Similar qualities can be attributed to all those lovers of socialism, who are
still looking for something positive in the rotten Soviet Union or in other
exotic regimes and systems that call themselves by the magic words "socialist"
or "people’s". Even the spread of coronavirus around the world is not
just an accident resulting solely from the chaos existing in the socialists’
brains; many indications show that dubious intentions are associated with this
accident as well ( <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487">here</a>
and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985">here</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangxi_Massacre">here</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="CS">On the occasion of the anniversary of the
Chernobyl disaster, the wife of one of the Tajik citizens fraudulently used for
dangerous cleaning work in Chernobyl recalls how her husband Nozir Ganiyev, who
was a simple cook, was taken away on the night of 7 April 1989 and returned crippled
on October 2 (<a href="https://fergana.ru/articles/117133/">here</a>). Soon
after his return, Nozir was afflicted by unbearable pains, barely being able to
stand on his feet, and he suffered for seven years before he died of leukemia.
Their daughter suffers from chronic blood disease. Many of Nozir's friends have
died and many are still suffering. Nozir is one of millions of people whose life
or health was destroyed by the Chernobyl disaster. For generations, people will
suffer as a result of this crime. Let us at least hope that the number of
people afflicted by pathological admiration for totalitarian states of any kind
will decrease.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-1529108835277839392020-04-21T23:40:00.002+03:002020-04-22T02:13:47.446+03:00State of the Corona World – Rating of the Countries According to Managing the Coronavirus Epidemics <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The numbers of diseased
and deceased with corona to a certain date can be found in the <a href="https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports">WHO
website</a>, and the numbers of performed tests in the <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">WORLDOMETER site</a>.
In the following table, I have extracted the data for April 14 and adjusted them
to reflect the population size for the majority of East Asian, West European,
and North American countries. The table comprises the numbers of reported
positive cases, death, and performed tests, as well as these values recalculated
per 10 million people, which is an approximate population of Sweden, Portugal,
Czechia, Hungary, Greece, Austria, Israel, Switzerland, and Hong Kong.</span></div>
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The following parameters reflect how seriously the countries have been
afflicted and/or how badly they have
been unprepared: a) number of positively diagnosed per 10 million people, b) number
of deaths per 10 million people, c) number of dead per 100 positive cases, and d)
reciprocally or negatively taken number of tests per 10 million people. I have
arranged the countries according to the increasing number of <b>diagnosed ill</b>
people per 10 million and determined a placing of each country in the list (= <b>parameter
<i>a</i></b>) – Taiwan acquires the placing 1 as having the least relative number
of ill. Then I have arranged the countries according to the increasing number
of <b>deaths</b> per 10 million and found their placings (= <b>parameter <i>b</i></b>)
– again Taiwan with the least number acquired the 1<sup>st</sup> place. Similarly,
I have arranged the countries according to the increasing <b>ratio of dead/ill</b>
(<b>parameter <i>c</i></b>); Slovakia gets the number 1. Finally, I have
arranged the countries according to the <b>decreasing number of tests</b>
performed per 10 million people (<b>parameter <i>d</i></b>) – Iceland is the
first one. A combination of parameters provides a better rating; the mean value
of <i>a</i> and <i>b</i> has been calculated and the countries have been rearranged
to provide a placing for each country for the combined <b>ill and dead people</b>
(<b>parameter <i>e</i></b>). By <b>combining the ill, the dead and the tested</b>
(providing <b>parameter <i>f</i></b> by calculating the mean value of <i>a</i>,
<i>b</i>, and <i>c</i> for each country, and by rearranging the countries), still
a more universal measure has been obtained – Hong Kong taking the 1<sup>st</sup>
place. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi129otLdD6FUR3tR0NdR5YU85B1MnZKH2tzfCGf9lJc9NvSyTOjSy9RJWEiGKv56a_7LQMFezUewVW6z8O0Lbrw8uz1zXJwx82lyORFYcpCSSzrptoDNnL05nrEOAcTI959Ad-50R-F60/s1600/cor+eng+p1_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1237" data-original-width="1600" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi129otLdD6FUR3tR0NdR5YU85B1MnZKH2tzfCGf9lJc9NvSyTOjSy9RJWEiGKv56a_7LQMFezUewVW6z8O0Lbrw8uz1zXJwx82lyORFYcpCSSzrptoDNnL05nrEOAcTI959Ad-50R-F60/s640/cor+eng+p1_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 1 </sup>The total number of
reported positive cases (ill) on April 14.<sup><o:p></o:p></sup></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 2 </sup>The total number of reported dead with corona
on April 14.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 3 </sup>The total number of reported positive cases on
April 14 recalculated per 10 million people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 4 </sup>The total number of reported dead with corona
on April 14 recalculated per 10 million people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 5 </sup>The ratio of dead/ill multiplied by 100, approximately
being a fraction of the dead among the infected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 6 </sup>The total number of reported tests,
recalculated for 10 million people, reported in HK, TW, KR, SG, JP, AU, <span lang="CS">NZ, IL, IS, NO, FI, DK, SE, US, CH, </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span lang="CS"> GB, GR, CZ, HU,
DE, ES‚ IT, FR </span>for April 15, and in other countries for April 17. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 7 </sup>The ratio of ill/tests multiplied by 100, corresponding
to the maximal estimation of the infected population fraction. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 8 </sup>The arithmetic mean of <i>a</i> and <i>b</i>, providing
a combination of the ill and dead, when arranging the countries and finding their
placing <i>e</i>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup> 9 </sup>The arithmetic mean of <i>a</i>, <i>b</i>, and <i>c</i>,
providing a combination of the ill, dead and tested, when arranging the
countries and finding their placing <i>f</i> (the </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"> number of tested may be somewhat
lower than the number of the tests as some people were tested repeatedly). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The developing or totalitarian countries do not measure or do not provide real data. A sample of such countries is exemplified in the following table.</div>
<div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV2sF3H27vFDp8HldV7sDvgfsF59R9EdCOKw61_O9Kgx-X2_XS7OJ_nheZgKopNtY-2fyEGqHlIQzrVAEcc_c2uKEGHhx8lw7N8ibeKqHv3HR7sMApUfacA3M6Ju9tGR05ns6OwO5-ckM/s1600/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="237" data-original-width="749" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV2sF3H27vFDp8HldV7sDvgfsF59R9EdCOKw61_O9Kgx-X2_XS7OJ_nheZgKopNtY-2fyEGqHlIQzrVAEcc_c2uKEGHhx8lw7N8ibeKqHv3HR7sMApUfacA3M6Ju9tGR05ns6OwO5-ckM/s640/Untitled.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
It can be supposed that the rating will not much change in the near future even when comprising updated data. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
For some reasons, the countries of Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe have less infected and dead than their Western counterparts.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-33077010270243595462020-01-29T00:38:00.005+02:002020-10-27T18:06:50.595+02:00Democratic candidates of 2016 and 2020 have been involved in criminal activities, but instead of investigating Clintons and Bidens, Republican candidate Trump has been defamed in both cases <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In 2009, FBI found
that Moscow’s officials in contact with U.S. uranium-involved companies were violating
the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, as being involved in money laundering,
extortion and bribery. The officials helped Russian president Vladimir Putin, allegedly
world’s richest man, in his nuclear ambitions inside the U.S. However, the
Department of Justice did not bring charges, and let the Obama administration make critical decisions in the uranium business, which benefited Putin’s Russia</span></div>
<a name='more'></a><div style="text-align: justify;">
(<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/12/13/russian-uranium-one-deal-and-hillary-clinton-in-the-news-again/#4f54d525526d">Forbes,
13 December 2018</a>). In October 2010, the State Department and government
investment agencies unanimously approved a partial sale of Canadian mining
company Uranium One (UO) to the Russian nuclear giant Rosatom, giving Moscow
control of more than 20 % of America’s uranium supply. In addition, Russia also
attained UO’s subsidiaries – profitable uranium mines in Kazakhstan, which is the
largest producer of commercial uranium in the world, and the deal enabled Russia
to obtain control over the production in this country. Furthermore, in 2011 the
Obama administration approved a Rosatom subsidiary to sell commercial uranium
to U.S. nuclear power plants. Finally, in 2013 Russia obtained 100 % control in
UO – luckily one year before the sanctions on Russia were imposed after the
Crimea annexation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The FBI agents found
that Russian nuclear officials had routed millions of dollars to the U.S. to
benefit former president Bill Clinton’s charitable foundation; this happened
when Hillary Clinton was the Secretary of State and, furthermore, when she served
on government bodies that made decisions favorable for Moscow. The
investigation of Russian uranium business in the US continued for many years in
low profile, and the public and Congress were long left in the dark. Only in
2015, media published that donations to the Clinton Foundation were behind the
Obama Administration’s controversial 2010 deal that gave Moscow control over a great
part of American uranium interests. The New York Times (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html">23
April 2015</a>) described how Bill Clinton collected hundreds of thousands of
dollars from lectures in Russia and how Clinton Foundation collected many millions
in donations from parties interested in the deal, while Hillary Clinton
presided on the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment. Bribery and corruption of
the Clintons was one aspect of the tragic deal, Obama’s silliness was the other
– Obama probably still aimed at unilaterally improving the relations with Russia,
which he called „resetting the relations“. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The slow investigation
ended without fanfare in the court case against Vadim Mikerin, the Russian
official overseeing Putin’s nuclear expansion in the U.S. There was no mention
of contacts between Russian nuclear officials and Clintons or of millions
dollars from Russia’s nuclear industry transmitted to an American entity providing
assistance to Bill Clinton’s foundation. The serious national security breach
was uncovered in low profile; Mikerin was sentenced to four years in prison on 15
December 2015. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Presidential candidate
Trump took up this issue during his 2016 campaign, but there were too many
agencies involved in the deal recommendation, and there were too many FBI and State
Department officials loyal to Hillary, to extract anything usable against her.
On the other hand, many officials who reluctantly investigated Russian links to
Hillary, including former FBI directors Robert Mueller and James Comey, later eagerly
cooperated with Democrats against elected president Trump, paradoxically again
in investigating Russian links, but this time non-existing links to Trump. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Democrats did not
manage to indict Trump on a Russian link – a crime in fact committed by Hillary
Clinton, the Democrat president candidate in the 2016 election. Toward the next
election, Democrats started to organize impeachment of Trump; in 2017 they
failed but in 2019 they succeeded. This time it should be not a Russian but a
Ukrainian link: Trump allegedly abused power when he asked the Ukrainian
president to investigate Joe Biden’s son Hunter, and then he allegedly committed
obstruction when he did not cooperate in investigating said alleged abuse. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Who was Hunter? Joe
Biden’s son Hunter applied for a position in U.S. Navy Reserve in 2013, he was
accepted, but a month later he was discharged for testing positive for cocaine (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-son-hunter-discharged-from-navy-reserve-after-failing-cocaine-test-1413499657">here</a>).
The same year, he founded, together with a Chinese businessman, an investment
fund BHR Partners, which for years cooperated closely with the Chinese
Communist Government (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BHR_Partners">here</a>). In another project, Hunter helped Chinese businessmen Ye and Ho negotiate a
deal in Louisiana. Ho was eventually arrested and jailed in the U.S. for
bribery (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/25/asia/patrick-ho-sentencing-intl/index.html">here</a>), and Ye, who had given Hunter a 2.8 carat diamond (<a href="https://theweek.com/speedreads/850429/hunter-biden-reportedly-received-28-carat-diamond-from-chinese-energy-tycoon">here</a>), was detained for
corruption in China. From 2014 to 2019, Hunter served on the board of Burisma
Holdings (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hunter-biden-ukraine-idUSKBN1WX1P7">here</a>), a major Ukrainian natural gas producer owned by Ukrainian oligarch Mykola
Zlochevsky, investigated for money laundering. Hunter’s father Joe Biden, while
serving as vice president, encouraged the Ukraine government to fire the country's
top prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who investigated Burisma; Biden in fact threatened to withhold $1 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine unless Shokin was fired </span>(<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXA--dj2-CY">here</a>)<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Many</span> including Rudy
Giuliani claimed that vice president Biden had sought the dismissal of Shokin
in order to protect his son and Burisma Holdings. Joe Biden played a major role
in U.S. policy towards Ukraine, and the anti-corruption advocates in Ukraine and
even officials in Obama administration were concerned that Hunter Biden's presence
on the Burisma board represented a conflict of interest.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Again, the involvement
of Hunter, suffering from alcohol and drugs problems, in Ukrainian and Chinese
business, clearly represented a conflict of interest if not a breach of
security, particularly when the business comprised also strategic fields, and
when Hunter’s father Joe was a U.S. vice president – notwithstanding the fact
that Joe may become a U.S. president. However, the Democrat administration again
turns their own problems against their enemy; Trump’s legitimate concerns about
the Bidens’ contacts with Ukrainian and Chinese criminals became the reason for
impeachment of Trump. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Democratic presidential
candidates of both 2016 and 2020 were involved in criminal activities. However,
instead of investigating Hillary Clinton’s and Joe Biden’s activities, evidently
dangerous for national security, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump
has been attacked and defamed in both cases. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-16442697891128177842020-01-25T22:28:00.003+02:002020-01-26T00:26:53.259+02:00Almost Sincere Regret After 75 Years – Representatives of 44 States in Jerusalem Remembered the Liberation of Auschwitz – Both What Was Said and What Was Not Were Important<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">At the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the
liberation of Auschwitz, the fifth Holocaust Forum was held in Jerusalem on
January 23, attended by representatives of 44 states, including 6 kings and
princes, 26 presidents and 4 prime ministers. During the forum, the tragic fate
of the Holocaust victims mingled with the political issues of today, although
some of them appeared only in hints and some remained concealed.</span></div>
<a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Forum was held in Israel against the
backdrop of preparations for the third election in one year. The political left
transform themselves into a "political center" in an attempt to survive,
and they stubbornly try to prevent the right from gaining 61 mandates in the
120-member parliament, while being assisted by the courts, the media and part
of the security elite. Under the leadership of Bibi Netanyhu, the ruling right
has achieved not only an enormous economic development, but also a radical
improvement in the Israeli image in the world, for years damaged by the
left-wing narrative of Israeli imperialism. Netanyahu has established contacts
with many states that have boycotted Israel earlier, and Israeli leftists are
losing support at home and abroad due to growing Islamic terror. The arrival of
almost all European heads of state in Israel at the recent forum confirms
these achievements.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">One of Bibi's foreign policy successes is good
relations with the United States and Russia. A guest of honor at a recent
forum, president Putin, is an ally of Syria and Iran, but does not interfere
too much in Israeli actions across the region. Israeli politicians tried to get
Putin to pardon an Israeli tourist detained at a Moscow airport with several
grams of cannabis and sentenced to seven years in prison; Putin promised that
everything would be OK to the girl’s mother, which certainly did not please
Bibi's opponents. Israeli media are grazing for negative news, so, for example,
the success of the Holocaust Forum is offset by rumors that many survivors
actually live below the poverty line and even that some are looking for food in
garbage bins. In fact, survivors have always belonged among the most successful
citizens. One such survivor even spoke at the Forum, the former Chief Rabbi of
Israel Rabbi Meir Lau, who came to Israel in 1945, as an eight-year-old boy, directly
from Buchenwald.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">The first problem in inviting guests to the
Forum in Jerusalem was the dispute between Poland and Russia. In addition to
the Jews, these two states place the greatest emphasis on the interpretation of
history. Poland lost 6 million citizens during the war, half of them Jewish,
the Soviet Union 20 million, of which over a million Jewish. Auschwitz killed
one million Jews, 75,000 Poles, 25,000 other nations, mainly Roma Gypsies, and
15,000 Soviet prisoners. However, the Soviet Union also bore responsibility for
much of what happened<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">The European Parliament resolution of 19
September 2019 stressed that the Nazi-Soviet treaty of 1939 led to World War II,
and to deportations and genocides, including the Holocaust. Today's Russia, for
an unclear reason, endorses the legacy of the Soviet Union, but rejects the
historical guilt for the war. Putin ignores the now well-known facts about
Soviet crimes, including tens of thousands of murdered Polish citizens, and
seeks to divert attention in other directions, for example by pointing out
Polish anti-Semitism. As the Russian representative, but Polish not, was given
the floor at the Jerusalem Forum, Polish president Andrzej Duda declined the
invitation, saying Putin is spreading historical lies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Another incident occurred when the president
of Ukraine wanted to give a speech at the main meeting, but he was told that, from
abroad, only representatives of the victorious powers and Germany would speak.
It is a bit illogical, because Ukraine is a descendant of the Soviet Union,
just like Russia, but there was no time for fifty speeches, and Israel
certainly did not want to annoy Putin. President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, felt
insulted and decided to "leave his seat at the meeting to Holocaust
survivors". Neither president Macron let the sensation go and, when
visiting the Old Town, he shouted at Israeli security men to get out of a
church immediately because it was French soil; irrelevantly, the church was
given to the French ruler Napoleon the Third in 1856 by then ruling Turkey.
Macron later apologized, but the headlines he desired were made. Prince Charles
used to make headlines already as a pupil when selling his copy books to collectors,
so it is not surprising that he deliberately did not shake his hand with the US
Vice President, after having shaken everyone's hand in a row, and skipped him
to demonstrate contempt for America and its president.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">In his speech, Putin said exaggeratedly that
40% of all Jews killed were Soviet citizens; he also mentioned how General Konev,
who was responsible for the Auschwitz area, "forbade himself to see
atrocities in the liberated camp so as not to lose his power to continue his
duties", which is absurd given the known facts about Konev's cynicism.
French President Macron hoped in his speech that better education would prevent
repetition of atrocities; but it does not seem that the Nazi Germans did not
have enough good education. German president Steinmeier spoke several sentences
in Hebrew, and then sharply condemned his nation for "the worst crime in
the history of mankind", but he was silent about the historical rights of
the Jews in Israel. Prince Charles reminded Princess Anne, his grandmother
buried in Jerusalem, who hid Jews in Greece during the war, but he did not address
the traditional British anti-Semitism. US vice president Mike Pence recalled
the brave people who were not afraid to rise up against evil at the time of the
Holocaust, and logically called on the world to unite against today's evil, the
Islamic Republic of Iran planning to exterminate Israel with an atomic bomb; president
Putin could not like the following applause.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Alongside senior officials from Canada,
Australia, Argentina and several former Soviet Asian republics, nearly all
European states except Poland and Switzerland participated in the Forum. Some
would think of combining the two states briefly as follows: the Auschwitz camp
was not<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>situated in Poland by accident,
and the gold from teeth of the killed prisoners did not flow from Auschwitz to
Switzerland by accident either; but such brevity might be unfair. For the sake
of justice, I name at least one Polish hero, a Polish officer named Witold
Pilecki, who deliberately let Germans arrest him and take him to Auschwitz in
1940, so that he could provide intelligence to the Polish resistance. He escaped
in 1943 with the resistance’s help, he took part in the Warsaw uprising in
1944, he was arrested by the Communists in 1947, and he was executed in 1948
for alleged espionage for imperialists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">The question is what the Jerusalem Forum was good
for. It may have been a test of how Israel is accepted in the world today.
Netanyahu may be satisfied. The beautiful speeches, decorated with Hebrew
words, pleased the Israelis. Of course, much more important for Israel than the
words had once been the British recognition of Jewish rights in Palestine, the
recognition of young Israel by Soviet Russia, the supply of Czech weapons, the French
assistance in aviation and nuclear technologies, the supply of German
submarines and money, and the political support from the United States. Israeli
president Rivlin rightly said that the restoration of the Jewish state is a continuation
of the millennial presence and not a gift for the Holocaust.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">As a 15-year-old, my mother was deported from
Terezin to Auschwitz in the summer of 1944, and from there to a satellite camp
in Merzdorf, where she was liberated by the Russians in January 1945. She would
probably say today (she died in 2012) that tears after 75 years are not worth
much, and the question is how sincere they are. However, if all these states
and their leaders have learned at least a little lesson, it might help. But
they would have to get rid of their prejudices and clichés, and of their
opportunism. Charles should not have gone to Bethlehem in memory of the
liberation of Auschwitz to show the Arabs that they were also important.
President Macron should not have shouted at Israelis to show Muslims that he
was strict on Jews. The German president should hardly regard Israeli
settlements in Israel as an obstacle to peace.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">If Europeans had learned the lessons, they
would clearly say that anti-Semitism in their countries is not a problem of
right or populism, but purely a problem of Islam. They would clearly say that
if educated Germans were able to kill 6 million Jews and cause 60 million
non-Jews to die in war, then it would be no problem for the uneducated Muslim
barbarians from Africa and Asia to exterminate the whole of Europe. Educated
Germans kept their plans secret, primitive barbarians conceal nothing and
clearly proclaim their plans in mosques. Muslims rape massively, liquidate
entire newspaper staffs, massacre theater visitors, and kill Christmas celebrators
with trucks. There is no need for special historical knowledge or logical
skills to make it clear where Europe is heading, and that once again it is
necessary to take the help of a strong America and not to childishly insult
America and reject it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Again, the world faces the existential threat
as in the 1930s. However, the European politicians do not look ahead to the
2030s, as they usually look no further than the end of their term. But if they
do not join together with the United States, the end of the whole Europe’s term
may soon occur as well. Looking away is dancing on the Titanic. The European
voters should urgently mobilize their attention and carefully choose their new
politicians who could challenge the horrible threats. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5632660180061683370.post-58718553361598357462019-12-17T00:54:00.003+02:002019-12-17T01:52:10.515+02:00Deep State Against Bibi Netanyahu – Leftwing Elites Deep-Rooted in the Israeli Institutions are not Satisfied with the Election Results<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">The term "deep state" denotes institutions
and groups of people deeply embedded in the structure of the state and seeking
to maintain a certain policy independently of democratic elections. It is a
state within a state. This is the way, the American commentator and columnist
Michael Savage related to the globalist elite in the United States that opposed
Donald Trump. In Trump’s War, Savage included among said progressive elite a
layer of civil servants in defense and security, social engineers</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span lang="CS"> and, above
all, the orchestrating media. According to Savage, the deep state stands for globalist
culture of collectivism, multiculturalism and controlled economy, as opposed to
the traditional values of individual freedom, free enterprise and
Judeo-Christian traditions. Savage's definition is also well suited to the Israeli
conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Whereas the United States seem to be rather retreating
from freedom to socialism, Israel once started with socialism and gradually
detached from it. Enthusiastic socialist founders wanted to create a new Jewish
man who would make his living by manual work while being indistinguishable from
his non-Jewish neighbors, including Arabs, with whom he would make friends. The
efforts to make friends with Arab neighbors became an obsession that proved
incurable in the Israeli political elites. No Arab violence helped, including the
pogroms of 1929, when the Arabs unexpectedly attacked their long-time Jewish
friends and neighbors, raping, gouging eyes, and severing limbs; tens of
thousands of dead and wounded during a hundred years of neighborly coexistence
have not helped. Fraternity became the highest goal of the Israeli elites.
Writers such as the famous Amos Oz dreamed in their morbid fantasy of an Arab friend
of Israel – a muscular and noble hero; the dream sharply contrasted with
physical disabilities of the Arab population caused by the intra-family
marriages, as well as with their ethics of which ultimate virtue was killing a disobedient
girl by father or brother. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Chaos and bureaucracy in Israel were getting
weaker during the years, and African dirt on the streets began to disappear,
with strengthening of the free market. Some kibbutz informality became part of the
Israel's DNA, but the incessant struggle for survival changed the DNA also in another
way – the Israeli voters have slowly turned away from traditional communist and
socialist parties and moved to the center and to the right (see the graph).</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSjrD95ONx_-DQnL-4PhF3eqr2AFQNPXbjnEU1Ch140_oTk1C22Sj8lIduGj4eBeudplMYh6DSU3mC4ObcnsUbaSvpIvLkrHa3vJJreOQJqWWwfbZq3_SLofYiIa2iw_mC-qNccyCJ2zI/s1600/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="538" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSjrD95ONx_-DQnL-4PhF3eqr2AFQNPXbjnEU1Ch140_oTk1C22Sj8lIduGj4eBeudplMYh6DSU3mC4ObcnsUbaSvpIvLkrHa3vJJreOQJqWWwfbZq3_SLofYiIa2iw_mC-qNccyCJ2zI/s640/Untitled.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-align: justify;">A lion putting zebra’s rights above its own would scarcely survive in evolution; the political right is more realistic and
defends the interests of the nation better than the dogmatic left. As a byproduct,
the nation got a healthier economy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">The main representative of the Israeli right
is Benjamin Netanyahu, called Bibi, who in 1996-2019, mostly as leader of the
Likud party, made a substantial contribution to consolidating the capitalist
economy – as Prime Minister in 1996-1999 and 2009-2019, and as Minister of
Finance in 2002-2005. Even his enemies, mostly rich people enjoying the overall
growth, have no doubt about his economic success. For example, inflation fell
from 10.6% to 1.3% in 1996-1999, and later down to zero. Privatization, tax
cuts, and opening the market to import have led to reduced unemployment,
increased national income, and improved supply. Before Bibi there was a lack of
natural gas, which the Egyptians refused to deliver to Israel despite the peace
treaty, and there was a critical lack of water; everything was expensive. Today
Israel can export water and gas, use cellular phones nearly free, and 8.5
million out of 9 million citizens travel abroad annually. Israel has become a
technological and local military power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">So why does the left hate Bibi more than other
right-wing politicians? Because the left cannot put up with the fact that, despite
their stereotypical presentation of right-wing people as simpletons, Bibi masters
better English than their idol Shimon Peres. Because Bibi studied architecture
at the world's most prestigious university (MIT). Because his son was among the
winners of the Bible knowledge contest. Because the left is easily ridiculed by
his sarcasm. Because the U.S. Congress applauded him, when he arrived there
against the will of US President Obama. Because he has friendly relations with
both the US and Russian presidents. Because Arab and Iranian leaders denote him
as the archenemy, while he is loved by Israeli people in the street. Because Bibi
repeatedly wins democratic elections.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Here comes the Israeli "deep state".
It is globalist progressive elite as defined by Savage, including defense and
security apparatchiks, social scientists and cultural agents, and media – all of
these rooted in the Stalinist era and backed by the Supreme Court, which has
been interfering in the powers of both the executive and the legislature over
the past 25 years. The Supreme Court is assisted by the prosecution and by
police, including a special investigation unit called Lahav 433, and by the offices
of the state attorney and the attorney general. Nominating personnel to crucial
positions is in the hands of legalistic and security elites who defend their
positions teeth and nails, concocting accusations against politicians according
to their needs, and whose influence has been vainly fought by elected
representatives for years. Said elites promote political views of the extreme
left represented by the political party Merec, now supported only by four
percent of voters. The Supreme Court regularly makes judgments favorable to Arab
terrorists, but the most destructive is its meddling in everyday economic life,
an example being attempts to prevent the use of natural gas recently found off
the Israeli coast. The gas “belongs to the people” according to the Supreme Court,
and its extraction would serve the rightwing government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">Since the beginning of his career, Netanyahu
has faced daily accusations, enthusiastically promoted by the media, suggesting
he would right away go to the prison – but the rumors have repeatedly turned
out to be exaggerations and defamations. Wiretapping Bibi, his wife and
children, and publishing their private conversations have become commonplace,
as well as testimonies about their offenses and crimes provided by cleaning
personnel and other staff around the Netanyahu family. Bibi's wife Sarah was
accused by media of not returning the bottle deposit bills to the state, and of
buying too expensive candles for Saturday. The left accused Bibi of allowing
Germany to sell a submarine to Egypt, which was absurd, since the left regarded
Egypt as a peaceful partner, and Bibi could have hardly prevented the sale
anyway. When Netanyahu greatly increased Israeli strategic strength by
purchasing German submarines, the left accused him of enriching himself, but a
thorough police investigation cleared him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS">From countless artificial affairs, the prosecution
has recently managed to extract three alleged crimes, and on November 21
indicted Netanyahu. The three affairs are "case 1000", "case
2000" and "case 4000". In the first case, Bibi received cigars
and champagne from entrepreneur Arnon Milchan in 2011-2016, for which he
allegedly assisted him in promoting his business. In the second case, Bibi had
a meeting, in 2014, with his political enemy, Yediot Ahronot newspaper
publisher Arnon Mozes, who offered him favorable articles in exchange for
limiting the influence of Mozes' biggest competitor – Yisrael Hayom paper; Bibi
did not accept the deal, but he should have refused the offer faster according
to the indictment. In the third case, Bibi was supposed to help communication
tycoon Shaul Elovitch in his business in exchange for favorable articles in
Walla's online newspaper. Paradoxically, Yisrael Hayom, whose influence Bibi allegedly
sought to suppress, is the only newspaper not biased against him, so it is absurd
to suppose he would consider such an offer. In addition, Yediot Ahronot and
Walla have never published any favorable articles about Bibi. The prosecution succeeded
to come only with "fraud and breach of trust" in the first two cases,
while adding "bribe" in the third one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="CS"><br /></span>
<span lang="CS">The Bibi’s Bill of Indictment was signed by Attorney
General Avichai Mandelblit, State Attorney Shai Nitzan, and Tel Aviv District Attorney
Liat Ben-Ari – all three being dubious persons with a past of criminal
investigations. Mandelblit was investigated in 2014, and accused of fraud and
breach of trust in the Harpaz affair, but his case was closed, probably due to
his previous assistance to the anti-Israeli radical left-wing organizations
MachsomWatch and BeTzelem in their activities against the Israeli Army, when he
served in the position of Chief Army Attorney. Nitzan threw away his kippa and
abandoned religion to simplify his career, which enabled him to work with
Aharon Bark – the father of the activism of Israeli leftist judges; in his
position he acted particularly cruelly against religious Jews in the
settlements to make up for his religious origin. He was found to act arbitrary
against right activists by Kfar Saba court in 2014. Liat Ben-Ari was caught threatening
a colleague of her in her position at the district prosecution office and
giving a false declaration to the court; Mandelblit and Nitzan provided her
with their protection, refusing to open a criminal case against her. Both
Nitzan and Ben-Ari were caught lying, when they did not pass a polygraph test. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="CS">Much of the public is outraged, as remembering
how former Prime Minister Olmert was charged for million dollar bribes in cash,
and how the District Court's six-year sentence was reduced to eight months
under pressure from the Supreme Court because Olmert's family was active in
extreme leftwing organizations. In the case of Netanyahu, none of the charges have
been proven, and the activities in which he is supposed to be involved, are even
not illegal according to lawyers unrelated to the establishment. It is a
head-to-head clash between a democratically elected prime minister and leftwing
elites embedded in the structure of the state more deeply than most people want
to admit, the elites willing to use all means to save their influence. The
means includes the skillful use of the politician Avigdor Lieberman, easily blackmailed
for having received millions of dollars for undisclosed purposes from the Austrian
billionaire Martin Schlaff, former Stassi agent. The Lieberman's criminal
investigation was closed and Lieberman, formerly marked by media as an extreme
rightwinger and fascist, was acquitted, after which he "surprisingly"
turned against the right government, causing its fall and thus premature
elections – even three times during the last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="CS">The left has no chance in regular democratic elections,
so it relies on its “deep state”. Bibi has brought the country to economic prosperity,
has gained Russian approval for Israeli operations in Syria, has forced the
Americans to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to withdraw from the treaty with
Iran, and to recognize Israeli sovereignty on the Golan heights, but over the
years he has not braced himself for attacking the strongest enemy – the deep
state. In any case, it will now be a fatal battle, not just for Bibi, but also for
the democratic Israel. Either the present right government will remain in power
in some form, hoping to break the power of leftwing judges and secure the
Jewish future in Israel, or there will be a period of opportunistic politicians
without any vision in the economy and politics, willing to negotiate with the
Arabs and make any concessions, while endangering Israel’s existence. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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